Date & Venue: Tuesday, 4 November 2025 at Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne
Distance & Conditions: 3200 metres, Group 1, handicap
Prize Money: A$10 million (as confirmed for 2025)
Track & Weather Conditions
The Flemington surface is forecasting significant rain in the lead‑up, with over 23 mm of rain reported on Monday before Cup day, causing the track to be downgraded to around a Soft 7 condition.
In such staying contests, the going plays a major role — horses proven over wet or yielding ground, and those who can settle off the pace and finish strongly, are often at an advantage. Keep an eye on the barriers and how the inside runs unfold, as Flemington’s big straight demands tactical positioning and a solid finishing run.
Key Runners to Watch
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Al Riffa (FR) – Trained by Joseph O’Brien, carrying 59 kg from barrier 19. A high‑class European stayer whose form includes a win in the Irish St Leger. Well‑suited to 3200 m and wet ground; the wide draw is a question though.
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Half Yours – Recent Caulfield Cup winner and local favourite with 53 kg from barrier 8. He ticks boxes for the Cups double and appears very well placed in the market.
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Buckaroo (GB) – A Chris Waller‑trained 7‑year‑old, drawn barrier 12, weight 57 kg. Has been progressive this preparation and shapes as a genuine contender if he handles the trip.
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Valiant King – Carries only 51 kg, has a strong staying pattern, and could be an each‑way value if the tempo suits.
Race Shape & Tactics
In a 3200 m handicap like the Melbourne Cup, tempo and positioning matter hugely. With the rain‑affected ground likely, the race could play out at a steady tempo, favouring those who can settle well and unleash a strong final 600–800 metres. Horses with experience over extended trips and proven ability to handle softer going will have the edge.
Barrier draw and weight will also be vital: those drawn wide or carrying heavy weights will need to overcome extra challenges, particularly given the track condition. It’s likely that the pace will come from a few front‑running stayers, leaving it open for one or two finishers to swoop late.
Our Tip — Winner: Al Riffa
Given the conditions, Al Riffa stands out as the horse to beat. His form, adaptability to wet ground, and staying ability all align strongly for this edition. While the barrier draw is wide, if the rain stays and the pace is genuine, he should have the class to see off his rivals.
For next best: Half Yours, as the local hero with the Cups double shot, and Valiant King as a value play with favourable weight.
Back Al Riffa to win – $8.00 at Dabble
