Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, October 1st

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

(5) Lafargue resumed with a solid 2nd after leading, run down by Euro Dandy who looks quite progressive. He did start favourite on debut but didn’t really show up, the query here is the map. He showed good speed first up but drawn barrier 10 here at The Valley isn’t an easy start to cross and lead.

(10) Sirianni gets a lovely run from barrier 4 with Meech on a huge positive. She was good first up behind a decent horse in Deep Blast with a big gap back to 3rd, and she had no luck when Kelly handed up the lead last start at $1.70, blocked badly for a run. Out to 1200m I think she owns the lead and will take some running down.

(11) Our Boy Bryan was good after racing wide and finishing 2nd to Prowling last start, who did start favourite and ran okay in a messy race here last week. Not sure that maiden was anything too crash hot but Gulf Of Guinea does go around as a short favourite at Echuca today.

(1) Dio would win if he produced a similar run to his only go here when 2nd to Scorched Earth. He was very plain first up down the straight in a stronger race and perhaps he needs a bend.

Tip: (10) Sirianni- $5.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Sirianni

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 5:46pm (AEDT)

Siding with the red hot Waterhouse/Bott team with (10) I Like Big Putts, who maps to lead here. She ran well first up behind Xtra Gear who started $6.50 in a group 2 at her next start and improved to lead all the way 2nd up at Cranbourne getting to 1400m. No worries with the extra trip, Prebble on is a big tick and the stable are on fire, it’s hard to be against them.

(3) Star Midfielder has upside and did sit 3 wide last start. I don’t think he beat much but can continue to improve.

Tip: (10) I Like Big Putts- $6.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN I Like Big Putts

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

(7) Cut It Out looks a great bet. She’s a very good fresh horse and did win easily at this T/D first up last prep, beating Smokin’ Val who is shorter than her here. She gets in with 55.5kg which is ideal, maps to lead from barrier 2 and looked very good winning a trial by 4 lengths. She should be close to favourite and we’re getting $5.50.

(3) Sugartown has had so many chances and can’t win one. She’s racing very well but keeps going around at short odds and getting rolled with no excuses, so I’m definitely not jumping on now. 

(2) Smokin’ Val is a chance and was solid in stakes class last start, but will get back and is perhaps better at 1100m.

 

Tip: (7) Cut It Out- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Cut It Out

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 6:46pm (AEDT)

Return of the 3000m races at The Valley. Going to have something very small each way on (10) Da Deputy, who will stay all day. He’s run 9th in three runs this prep, but anything under 2400m is irrelevant for this guy. I thought his run wasn’t much worse than Border Leicester who is $13 here and was coming off a (distant) 2nd to True Marvel who is clear fav here. Down to 53kg, he’s not completely hopeless and you’ll probably get bigger BSP.

(7) True Marvel was dominant last start over 3080m at Mornington and will clearly be hard to beat.

Tip: (10) Da Deputy- $51.00/10.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Da Deputy

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

Happy to stay out of this 955m race. I usually don’t mind betting in them but this is very tricky. (7) Easy Single is racing very well and did beat Reward With Return last start who has run well in plenty of these races. Not sure he holds the front from barrier 1 which will make things tricky.

(1) Ashford Street has the class but this is his first go at The Valley and that’s tough over 955m.

(9) Rising Sphere has bolted in with two runs this prep on the synthetic. If he can convert it to turf he’s a big chance.

Tip: (7) Easy Single- $3.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 7:46pm (AEDT)

(9) Smoke Bomb looks well placed. He had to do far too much work last start and it told late, but he stuck on fairly well to be beaten 3.1L by Floating Artist, who some are talking up as a Caulfield Cup horse. There isn’t much speed here so he should be able to lead and his only other go at this T/D was a huge win.

(6) He’s The Real Deel bolted in two starts this prep before being run down by Frankie Pinot, which has been franked since. He missed the kick last start which didn’t help and gets to 1600m which should help. If he jumps better he should be able to follow Smoke Bomb across and settle handy.

(1) Keats ran in a Victoria Handicap first up in Australia last prep and failed. This is much easier and he’s unbeaten at the mile overseas. Map and weight are queries, but the 2nd jumpout wasn’t bad.

Tip: (9) Smoke Bomb- $5.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Smoke Bomb

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 8:16pm (AEDT)

Top pick Aspen Colorado has come out who looks an exciting stayer. (7) Michante stepped up to bm70 grade last start and acquitted herself well. By Americain, you’d think 2040m will be no issue.

(5) Milestone can improve up in trip.

 Not keen now that Aspen Colorado has come out.

 

Tip: (7) Michante- $3.10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 1, 2021, 8:46pm (AEDT)

(1) Condo’s Express doesn’t win often but does love The Valley. From 6 starts here he’s won twice and run 2nd twice. Has to carry 63kg after the claim but given he’s run very well in bm78-84 grade, he deserves big weights in bm64’s. With queries on a few of these, he’s not hopeless each way.

(2) Pioneer River is a query because I think he needs a firm track. Even on soft 5’s at Flemington he’s been disappointing, and it’ll likely be a bit wetter than that. He’s definitely classy enough, he’s just short enough.

(9) Redeel ran on well for 3rd first up. She drops back to 1200m from the 1300m which is interesting, and will need some luck from the draw.

Tip: (1) Condo’s Express- $14.20/3.70 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Condo’s Express