Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 16th

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 12:27pm (AEDT)

Pretty weak race. A few of the horses are coming out of the Saturday 2000m races which I think are very weak. (2) Marcolt was heavily backed two starts ago when right down in the weights but was just fair last time and gets back up in the weights with Michelle Payne riding.

(1) Mr Joobs brings the different form and perhaps it is better, as we saw with Namakwa winning at Flemington off a synthetic bm58. He’ll have no problems with the 2400m whereas a few others haven’t been past 2000m.

(4) Token Spirit is going okay in those 3yo city races and is in the mix.

Tip: (1) Mr Joobs- $5.80 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(1) Douceur has been very well backed since markets opened off the back of a very good trial at Traralgon where she cruised to the line under a hold. Her debut was also very good, beating a subsequent winner, notably on a heavy track. My query is Michelle Payne and not Billy Egan riding, who did in the trial, so I think she’ll drift a bit from $2.30 given the jockey/trainer combo of the 2nd favourite.

I speak of (7) Whatafox who is from the Maher/Eustace stable and ridden by J Kah. She was rock solid on debut and looks suited up in trip, although 1000m to 1300m is a small query. Hoping the Kah/trainer combo keeps her short so we get a better price about Douceur.

(6) Kaveri can improve after getting back in the field on debut. Lane takes the ride from barrier 1.

Playing Douceur late on the exchange, doubt she gets much shorter than $2.40.

Tip: (1) Douceur- $2.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Douceur (BSP)

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

Tough race. (5) Always In Moment started $3.30 against Nikau Spur in a better race last start but pulled up with EIPH in a clear forgive when last. That was 8 weeks ago but he’s jumped out very stylishly at Cranbourne since. A wet track is a big query which is enough to scare me off.

(8) Worsfold destroyed his rivals on debut but struggled in two SA runs. He’s been spelled, gets Kah and blinkers on first time which is a scary proposition. How far back he gets on a wet track is the worry.

(4) Ocean’s Jen won well first up and could get a similar run here from barrier one. Don’t think a wet track will be an issue off breeding, and she wasn’t beaten all that far in a handy maiden on a soft track last prep.

Tip: (4) Ocean’s Jen- $5.10 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ocean’s Jen

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

(4) Spooning was clearly the run of the race that most of the chances come out of. She was a touch slow away and wasn’t ridden with any intent from there on, settling last after leading in SA the start before. If she jumps as usual she should be much closer in the run and hard to beat.

(1) Star Of Eden won that race but had absolutely every favour and gets a trickier set up here from a wide gate and apprentice on.

(3) Montia gets the 3kg claim for Cartwright and was rock solid in 2nd sitting on speed there. She’s consistent and should run well again.

(7) Merle The Pearl creates some interest coming off a 5L $1.60 maiden synthetic win. Stepping up to the 1400m looked to suit, although she is now 4 weeks between runs onto a wet track.

Tip: (4) Spooning- $2.90 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Spooning

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(14) Ready To Indulge could be value here. Both runs this time in have been sound and she should be approaching peak fitness 3rd up. The run last start was good, and she does drop down to 54.5kg from barrier 1. She has a liking for wet ground and if the fence is racing well I think she’ll run well. Lunch Session, who finished just ahead of her last start, has since run very well in a bm70 at Swan Hill.

(11) Make Mine Hennessey wasn’t beaten too far in a strong race at Flemington behind Snickerdoodledandy and this is much easier. Up to 1600m looks to suit although she might prefer drier ground.

(4) Lindhout is a tricky one. I think she’s crying out for a senior rider, and gets Dee replacing Hefel here. She did plenty wrong last start and came very wide but has never seen a wet track and goes 1300m up to 1600m, drawing wide. Still has upside against these but seems very short.

(3) Perennial is pattern dependent. If they’re making ground out wide, she’ll be right in the game because she loves wet tracks and comes out of a strong race but she’ll get back in the field and might have too much to do.

Copped a few deductions with Ready To Indulge, who is into $9.50 which still looks acceptable.

Tip: (14) Ready To Indulge- $21.00/6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 units E/W Ready To Indulge

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

(12) Lofty Heights fits the recent mould of horses getting right down in the weights on wet tracks, and able to settle on speed. He gets in with 51kg here 2nd up, where he’s run 2nd twice from 3 starts, and he is unbeaten on heavy tracks. 1500m to 2100m is an obvious query but barrier one looks good and he should lob in a nice spot.

(14) Arcadia King is never a horse I’ve thought has much talent, especially compared to his sister, but he’s another that gets in very light with 51kg and looks suited up in trip. Both runs this prep have been solid and he should’ve finished closer last start. This is much harder and I expect he’ll start even longer than $51.

(2) Converging failed last start behind Heart Of Puissance but was racing well prior. Back to 2100m is some query but she maps beautifully.

(11) Smokin’ Romans was ridden more negatively last start and that may have cost him behind Over The Sky. Steps up to 2100m, past a mile for the first time, but my main query is a wet track. His one run on a properly rain affected track was a failure and I’m happy to play around him.

Lofty Heights scratched which is a shame because I thought he was the best value of the day. Can’t really find an angle I’m keen on now, but if Smokin’ Romans stays under $3.00 I think he’s definitely layable.

Tip: (2) Converging- $12.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

(5) Scantoon on top. He’s clearly come back well, running 2nd to Seb Song first up before winning well on the Hillside track last start. He likes wet tracks but there is stacks of speed here and draws wide. If he can slot in just behind the speed I think he’ll be hard to beat.

(6) Love Broker led and bolted in last start at Sale and wasn’t far off Midships and Sir Kalahad the start prior which now reads very well, given Midships won the Golden Topaz and Sir Kalahad bolted in on Saturday.

(8) Raise Em Up is airborne and tactically versatile. He led and won two back then sat just off them and won well again last start. Loves wet tracks and should measure up.

(4) Orleans Rock was good late behind Love Broker first up and can improve. He’s definitely good enough and is 1/1 on heavy.

Tip: (5) Scantoon- $4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Scantoon

Odds Last Updated: June 16, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Bit of value in the last with (4) Minyinga. She resumed first up over 1100m and got a mile out of her ground, hitting the line well behind Kalkarni Royale and Zorro’s Dream. She finished 6th when 2nd up last prep but that was a clear forgive because she knuckled at the start and ended up last, only beaten 2.5L in the finish. She is a horse that can race on speed and form barrier 4 with the 3kg claim I think she’ll run well. 

(1) National Choice’s form jumps off the page having run 3rd to Crosshaven and Amish Boy towards the end of last prep. He’s been off nearly a year since the Caulfield Guineas and has jumped out well enough.

(6) Kuzco Lad will roll forward and has won fresh in the past, and at 1200m. Soft track poses no issue and he should be in this a long way.

(8) Wilde Gem is 4/4 on heavy tracks and comes out of a stronger race behind The Gauch where he ran well, albeit at $151.

 

Tip: (4) Minyinga- $15.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Minyinga