Ascot Racing Tips: Friday, April 2nd

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

(1) Allmamoney just has to turn up to win this. He broke his maiden two starts ago at Bunbury and then split Magical Dream and Hot Zed last start. Hot Zed had won four straight leading into that race, and Magical Dream had run 2^nd to Kissonallforcheeks the start prior. That’s exceptional form for a No Metro Wins race so he should be too good for this lot.

Tip: (1) Allmamoney $1.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

Me and my old friend (3) American Grin meet again here. I thought he was a complete moral last start, he was backed from $1.95 into $1.60 and somehow couldn’t put his nose in front. He’s now run 2^nd in all three starts for the Durrant stable. Rider change today with Clint Johnston-Porter replacing Mitchell Pateman; he really finds a suitable race once again today, but then again I thought the race he contested last time was probably just as suitable. He goes on top but won’t be backing him as hard as I did last start (though we are getting a slightly better price).

(9) Lady Of Babylon was a good run on debut, coming from last on the rail to get up and run 4^th. The horse that ran 2^nd in that race then came out and won at Bunbury on Wednesday, so the form has stood up which can’t be said for much of these. The query again today is the map but happy to have something on at the price.

(4) Big Screen made its stable debut in a 3YO Handicap in Saturday grade and I actually backed hm in that race on the back of a good trial. He didn’t offer much though and was well beaten after coming under pressure a fair way out. The horse that finished ahead of him couldn’t win at Bunbury on Wednesday, so I have some reservations. I suspect they’ll look to dictate here with just a moderate speed and the money has certainly come for it.

(7) Molly Magee is always around the mark and will be again.

Tip: (3) American Grin $2.50 Sportsbetting

Value: (9) Lady Of Babylon $7.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN American Grin, 0.75 units WIN Lady Of Babylon

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Wide open two-year-old race here.

Going to go with (12) Kempy Gold here for the Simon Miller/William Pike combination. She finished 5^th on debut, beaten less than 2L when things really didn’t work out that well during the run. She poked up to be box seat, but the leader fell back in her lap before the turn and she got shuffled back. She then picked herself up and ran home well, despite being taken in towards the rail by other horses in the straight. I don’t think barrier 9 is the worst draw here, she should be able to build momentum and not get hampered.

(9) Be Optimistic was first emergency for the Karrakatta Plate but looks to line up here. She ran 3^rd in the Magic Millions two starts back and was beaten less than 3L in the Gimcrack Stakes last start. That looks solid form.

(2) Almaher Man was good on debut but ordinary last start, even though he didn’t have the best of runs. Draws wide again but the blinkers go on for the first time and can improve.

(5) Vital Gem and (6) Far Too Strong not hopeless.

Tip: (12) Kempy Gold $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Kempy Gold

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

Hard to know where (3) Winsalot gets to from barrier 7 but I think he brings the best form to the race. He won three starts back and has since bumped into Temptacion and Special View at his next two runs. The horse that ran 3^rd behind him two starts ago has since come out and won, while Temptacion ran 3^rd in the Oaks. Special View has returned with two wins from two starts this prep and looks above average, so the form around Winsalot looks very solid.

(5) Rock This Country ran very well first up from a 78-week spell for a new stable. The winner that day was The Thunderess which isn’t a bad form reference for this race, so he can go well again.

(4) Main Engine broke her maiden last start and could even take up the lead with no tempo on paper here. Definitely a live chance.

Tip: (3) Winsalot $2.90 Bet365

Saver: (5) Rock This Country $4.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Winsalot, 0.5 units WIN Rock This Country

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 5:41pm (AEDT)

This is another wide-open race.

I think (1) Sheikh It is under the odds at $4.80. He’s been ordinary in his first two runs back from a spell and is five weeks between runs.

(3) Koranis and (2) Unending come out of the same race last start, where they ran the quinella in that order. The step up in distance probably suits Unending better but Koranis is flying.

(4) Trisuem comes her eon the back of back-to-back wins, the latest of which was over this track and distance. Drawn a touch awkward and steps up in grade but isn’t hopeless.

(8) Admiral Promo was a great run in defeat last start behind Temptacion and Marocchino. Temptacion then ran 3^rd in the Oaks, while Marocchino came out and won last Saturday. Big jockey change today with Chris Nicol taking over from apprentice Chris Graham.

(9) Missalfie won two starts back and had definite excuses last start. Huge jockey change with Pike replacing Fiona Bell.

Plenty of chances here but something small on Admiral Promo and Missalfie.

Tip: (8) Admiral Promo $10 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (9) Missalfie $9.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Admiral Promo, 0.5 units WIN Missalfie

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

Leaning to (3) Nurhaci here who has trialled nicely leading into his first up run today. He draws barrier 1 here and should kick through to be box seat at the very worst. Looks hard to beat.

(6) Just A Pinch is also first up, with 3kg claimer Kershaw Dhurun on board. He booted home a metro double last week and the stable themselves have hit form in recent weeks. She will find this much easier than some of the races she contested last prep, even as a three-year-old taking on older horses.

(12) Amber Mamba is a blowout chance at enormous odds. Won first up last prep with no trial and comes into today’s run with the same prep.

(11) Paris Girl ran 2^nd in the trial behind Nurhaci and can go well fresh.

Tip: (3) Nurhaci $3.50 Sportsbet

Value: (12) Amber Mamba $51 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Nurhaci, 0.25 units WIN Amber Mamba

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 6:51pm (AEDT)

Hate these 2200m races but can’t find many winning chances.

(1) Red Hot Tip has had two runs to get fit and now jumps from 1600m to 2200m third up from a spell. He has good form over this track and distance from when he was a younger horse. Query as to whether he’s gone on with it but he gets his chance today.

(2) Queen Takes King relished the step up from 1800m to 2400m last start and won fairly comfortably. Drops back to 2200m today and draws wide but can win again.

(4) Final Chill won a bizarrely run race last start and won largely due to Pike outriding his opposition. He was about 3L off Queen Takes King prior to that so probably has a bit to make up on that horse given he meets it worse at the weights.

(5) Great Waters can improve with the run under the belt.

Queen Takes King and Red Hot Tip for me.

Tip: (2) Queen Takes King $4.20 Bet365

Value: (1) Red Hot Tip $7.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Queen Takes King, 0.5 units WIN Red Hot Tip

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 7:26pm (AEDT)

(3) Dig Deep is flying. He should have gone close in the Bunbury Stakes two starts ago and he atoned for that with victory in the Grandstand Cup last start. He draws barrier 1 for a similar run today and can win again.

(2) Samizdat got close to Dig Deep in the Grandstand Cup and meets him better at the weights today so has obvious claims.

(4) Arctic Stream ran really well in the Bunbury Stakes, finishing 2^nd ahead of both Dig Deep and Samizdat. If he’s back to his best, he would give this a real shake. It’s just whether he can reproduce it.

The value for mine is (6) Media Baron who should be ready now that he’s had three runs back from a spell. Up in distance suits him and he wasn’t far behind Dig Deep and Samizdat last start.

Even (7) Misty Lad isn’t hopeless. He drops back in distance after winning the Esperance Cup last start. He’s now placed in his past five starts.

Tip: (3) Dig Deep $3.10 TopSport

Value: (6) Media Baron $10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Dig Deep, 0.5 units WIN Media Baron

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2021, 8:01pm (AEDT)

On his first up run, (10) Blankenberge should be very hard to beat in the last. He flashed home behind Pablo’s Poem over 1100m and he has won second up before. Pike keeps the ride, he draws sticky but should be the one they have to hold off.

(5) King’s Authority was murdered last start. He sat three-wide the trip, then got the whip tangled in his reins half way down the straight. Jockey upgrade with Ramoly going on today. The 1200m really sees him out but he will probably run a place as he tends to do.

Outside of those, I don’t see much to the race.

Tip: (10) Blankenberge $5.50 Ladbrokes

Saver: (5) King's Authority $4.80 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Blankenberge, 0.5 units WIN King's Authority