Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, April 3rd

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Not the easiest start to the day. The main fancies map awkwardly and the ones that map well are queries at the trip/class. (7) Pesto is a handy import first up for the Hawkes camp but draws very wide and will likely get a long way back. The 2^nd to Patrick Sarsfield is very good form.

(11) Vongole hasn’t had much luck this prep and is better suited on a dry deck. The map from barrier 2 looks tricky as he generally gets a fair way back.

(2) Music Addition maps perfectly but the 1400m is a big query, given he’s been poor at both tries at the trip and he does have to carry 60kg.

(12) Akacheta is flying but this is harder again and he’ll have to muster quickly to negate the awkward draw, especially at the 1400m start.

Incredibly tough race and I’m more than happy to try and gauge a track pattern- if Music Addition is sticking on very well, I’d expect leaders to be suited.

Tip: (2) Music Addition $9.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(1) Incredulous Dream played up behind the gates at Mornington first up but proved too strong. She’s beaten Yes Baby Yes and Rainbiel at this T/D which is solid form, and she maps to do no work from barrier 1.

(4) Agreeable put in yet another flashing light run first up at Sandown behind Palace Whisper. She did start $4.40 against Incredulous Dream’s $41 and beat her home by nearly 4L in an Atlantic Jewel, but she really needs another win.

Going to follow my money with (6) Divine Diosa who I thought ran fairly well first up after going back and hitting the line for 3^rd. This is obviously a big step up, but she has proven to be around the mark with these sort of fillies, and surely they go forward here from the wide barrier. She drifted first up and went back so look for market support to suggest she’s going forward and at the odds I could have something small on.

(10) Always In Moment was a dominant winner first up at Pakenham and Lane sticks with her over Divine Diosa. She maps well with 54.5kg.

Tip: (6) Divine Diosa $31.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Divine Diosa

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

Really looks two winning chances here, and at the odds I’m happy to side with (2) Hunnam who was unlucky and should’ve finished a clear 2^nd at The Valley last start behind Crystal Bound. The sectionals there were very solid, 1100m will suit and he draws better in barrier 6.

(8) Najmaty is the obvious threat. She was a very good winner on debut at the Kenso, getting back but coming wide and putting them away nicely. The 2^nd horse has come out and won the Wellington Boot, which probably isn’t very good form, but it’s been franked, nonetheless. $2.30 looks a touch short but if she got out to $3, I’d probably save.

(6) Sliders narrowly beat Hunnam when they met in Sydney, but Hunnam was easily the better run in my opinion.

Backing Hunnam at the prices, think it should be more like $2.90 Najmaty and $5.00 Hunnam.

Tip: (2) Hunnam $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hunnam

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

Looks an abundance of speed on which will suit (6) Black Penn down to the ground. He was a dominant winner first up at Pakenham before being well backed to start $5.50 against Dom To Shoot in the Mornington Guineas and should’ve gone close to winning. He got shuffled back at a key stage, had to come off heels and ran the race fastest last 400m. A faster run race where he can build momentum looks ideal and I think he’s a good bet.

(7) Ironedge ran on well for 2^nd behind Nobel Heights, who was strongly backed at the midweeks. He had clear excuses in the Aus Guineas and is going well.

(4) Captain Spud will be up on speed, with company, but absolutely bolted in last start at Sale as the $2.15 favourite. The start prior he started $1.85 and just beat Kermy, who has since come out and run 2L 2^nd to Steinem, who looks ultra-talented. The form is stacking up and his SP profile demands respect- at $8.00 he’s an easy bet.

(1) Struck By is flying in SA and from the trainer reports will push on from the wide gate. Even after the claim he has to concede a bit of weight but he’s hard to knock.

Think this is one of the best betting races of the day – Black Penn and Captain Spud are both great value at their prices.

Tip: (6) Black Penn $4.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Captain Spud $8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Black Penn, 1 unit WIN Captain Spud

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

Outstanding race and could easily pass as group class. (15) Winsum goes on top. He started $1.45 at Cranbourne last start and won as you’d expect him to- with ease. In 3 runs as a 3yo he’s never started longer than $1.75 which was his only defeat, sitting handy to a very strong speed and getting run down by Impecunious who was better suited. Currie takes the ride, he drops 5.5kg down to the minimum and at $6.00 I think he’s a good bet.

What to do with (12) Vowmaster? He looked a group 1 horse in the making in two Melbourne runs but was disappointing in two Sydney runs this prep. I can forgive the first up defeat because absolutely nothing went right and he hated the wet ground, but I thought he had his chance last start. Back to Melbourne, with his regular jockey on board, it wouldn’t shock to see a completely different horse.

(8) Capriccio was a shock winner first up but a very good one down the straight. She’s got stacks of upside but loses D Lane and will have to get a fair way back.

(4) Minhaaj has form around September Run which reads very well, but all her good form is down the straight and she does have to give weight to some of the boys first up.

Fairly keen on Winsum at the price, and happy to make Vowmaster a result at $7.50 given his talent and him coming back to Melbourne.

Tip: (15) Winsum $6.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (12) Vowmaster $7.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Winsum, 0.75 units WIN Vowmaster

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Another fantastic race. (6) Alfa Oro is one of mine and he’s a winner, with a fantastic record of 6 wins and two 2nds from 9 starts. He bolted in first up last prep on a good track, albeit in a 955m race, before starting odds on against Graff and Fabergino, copping plenty of pressure and pulling up slightly lame. I doubt he leads here, and he’d prefer a soft track, but he’s got such an imposing record and the 1000m suits.

The 1000m also suits (5) Octane who was stretched out to 1200m at the end of last prep and simply didn’t run it out. His 1000m record is very good, and his run here in the Schillaci Stakes was excellent, 0.3L off Dirty Work at WFA level. He gets in with 55.5kg here and although he goes better 2^nd up, he’s a good price.

(1) Diamond Effort is ultra-consistent, races very well at Caulfield and flies fresh, but the 60kg is a real leveller. She beat Octane home by a head in the Schillaci and meets him 6.5kg worse off at the weights. Kah has ridden both and sticks with the mare though, so that is a bonus.

(3) Native Soldier is perhaps the most interesting runner of the day, first up off 118 weeks, now a 5yo. He might need the run but has jumped out very well and is talented.

Happy to back Alfa Oro and Octane, who would be the slightly better result.

Tip: (6) Alfa Oro $2.90 at Bet365

Also Backing: (5) Octane $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Alfa Oro, 1 unit WIN Octane

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

He faces a task from the barrier, but (2) Persan could just be better than these. I was hard against him first up, as was the market, but he was simply too good, coming from last which was not easy to do on the day. This horse just keeps improving and whilst his target is the Andrew Ramsden, I just think he’ll be too good for them here. The draw is sticky, but they’ve put Mcneil on after the claim first up and I doubt he gets right back to last. If he finds cover midfield, he’ll be exceptionally hard to beat.

(7) Platoon has had one of the strangest preps ever but was good last week in the Golden Mile. Steps back up to 2000m on the backup and should run well again.

(9) Hang Man is flying (which sounds strange to say) and the Defibrillate form looks good. The carpark draw isn’t ideal, and he loses McNeil but he wouldn’t completely shock.

(5) Le Don De Vie was solid first up in Adelaide over 1600m with a big weight and drops 5kg here up to the 2000m. He’ll be better over 2400m+ but very interesting to see J Kah on and the Geelong Cup 2^nd is strong. Wouldn’t shock to see him improve sharply and barrier one could mean he finds the front and dictates. He’s the easy value play in the race.

Tip: (2) Persan $3.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (5) Le Don De Vie $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.25 units WIN Persan, 0.75 units WIN Le Don De Vie

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

Looks plenty of speed on paper with Greyworm, Age Of Chivalry, Begood Toya Mother, Bam’s On Fire and Morvada all capable of forcing the issue.

This should suit the best horse (1) Mr Quickie who is going to get back and hit the line strongly. Completely forgive his All Star Mile run where it was too wet and go off his first up run in the Futurity Stakes where he finished 3^rd to Probabeel and Arcadia Queen and he’d go very close, even with 60.5kg. His 1400m record is excellent and I thought the $9.50 was a good bet.

(6) Pretty Brazen was good first up behind So Si Bon, and did beat Arcadia Queen 2^nd up over 1400m last prep. She does generally go better at Flemington and the draw is sticky, but she looks well in with 55kg.

(4) Age Of Chivalry was fair first up and can improve sharply. He generally goes better 2^nd up and his Caulfield 1400m record is very strong.

(9) Morvada is flying and can try to hold these out for the lead again. He was rated beautifully last start but does lose D Lane, although Spain gets along with the horse well.

Tip: (1) Mr Quickie $9.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75u/1.25u E/W Mr Quickie

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 5:31pm (AEDT)

I’d be taking the price about (9) Shandy because I think she’ll be backed heavily late, as she was first up. It would’ve been a sick beat if she didn’t get the gap because she was absolutely bolting for a run, and the turn of foot was electric once she got it, running the meeting fastest last 400 & 200m splits. Second up last prep she bolted in and with any luck from barrier 2 I think she’ll go very close.

(2) Skyman probably should’ve won the Yarra Valley Cup last start and did win well at 1600m the start prior.

(3) Ritratto has run 2^nd to Ironclad at his last two starts which is strong form. He puts himself on speed and is tough to get past, although I’m not sure he’ll be able to find the front here.

(10) Re Edit is fresh and back to the mile which looks an okay set up. Kah takes the ride and with luck from barrier 3 she can reel off a big finish.

Tip: (9) Shandy $3.80 at TAB

Also Backing: (3) Ritratto $6.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Shandy, 0.5 units WIN Ritratto