The Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes is one of the premier mile races for fillies and mares during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival. Run over 1600m at Flemington on Victoria Derby Day, the $1 million weight-for-age contest has been a Group 1 since 2004 and has produced an impressive honour roll of elite female gallopers. The race takes its name from Empire Rose, the celebrated New Zealand mare who won the 1988 Melbourne Cup.
This year’s renewal has an intriguing twist, with two-time winner Pride Of Jenni missing the race as she recovers from a leg infection. Her absence could change the expected tempo, but there is still plenty of quality among the 11 acceptors. Four-time Group 1 winner Lady Shenandoah arrives off a Toorak Handicap victory and sets the benchmark, while the rapidly improving Surfin’ Bird backs up just seven days after winning the Crystal Mile over the same course and distance. The contrast between proven top-level class and mares hitting career-best form makes Saturday’s Empire Rose an appealing betting contest.
Race details
Saturday 31 October · Flemington Race 8 · 5:00pm AEDT · Group 1 · 1600m · $1 million.
Final field, barriers and odds
| No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Win | Place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lady Shenandoah | 8 | James McDonald | $2.30 | $1.20 |
| 2 | Idle Flyer | 7 | Mark Zahra | $9.50 | $2.30 |
| 3 | Surfin’ Bird | 9 | Blake Shinn | $4.20 | $1.50 |
| 4 | Cilacap | 4 | Michael Dee | $41.00 | $7.50 |
| 5 | Unleeshing | 10 | Jason Collett | $9.00 | $2.25 |
| 6 | Pondalowie | 11 | Harry Coffey | $67.00 | $10.50 |
| 7 | Jenni Multabella | 2 | Declan Bates | $126.00 | $18.50 |
| 8 | Salty Pearl | 1 | Ben Allen | $20.00 | $4.00 |
| 9 | Sass Appeal | 5 | Damian Lane | $17.00 | $3.60 |
| 10 | Concord Connie | 6 | Craig Williams | $7.50 | $2.00 |
| 11 | Pillow Fight | 3 | William Pike | $61.00 | $10.25 |
Fixed win/place odds snapshot checked 29 October; prices fluctuate.
Detailed form analysis
(1) Lady Shenandoah – $2.30
Four Group 1 wins make her the class benchmark. She carried 58kg to win the Toorak Handicap over this distance, and now returns to set weights against mares. James McDonald can settle her with cover from barrier eight. The most likely winner, but her short quote offers limited margin for tactical trouble.
(3) Surfin’ Bird – $4.20
Arrives in career-best form after winning the Ladies Day Vase and last Saturday’s Crystal Mile over this same Flemington 1600m course. Blake Shinn replaces the suspended Jordan Childs. She can race near the speed, a potential advantage without Pride Of Jenni in the field. The seven-day backup is the concern, but she is the main danger.
(5) Unleeshing – $9.00
Has won her last two starts, most recently the Group 3 Angst Stakes at Randwick over 1600m on soft ground. Her finishing burst is a weapon if the leaders set an honest tempo. This is her Flemington debut and barrier ten is tricky, but she has scope to improve and is our preferred value runner.
(10) Concord Connie – $7.50
Unbeaten in two Flemington appearances and now partnered by Craig Williams from barrier six. Her third in the Tristarc Stakes was better than it looks after traffic issues, and she is capable of improving third-up. This is a major rise in class, however, so we favour her for exotics rather than a primary win bet.
(2) Idle Flyer – $9.50
A proven Group 1 miler who was more competitive in the Invitation last start. Mark Zahra rides from barrier seven, but she must recapture her best form to win this.
(9) Sass Appeal – $17.00
Her second in the Stocks Stakes gives her some claims, and Damian Lane can position her prominently from barrier five. An outsider capable of hanging on for a placing if the tempo is moderate.
(8) Salty Pearl – $20.00
Finished close enough behind Lady Shenandoah in the Toorak, but is worse off at the weights here. Barrier one gives her a chance to save ground, though she needs significant improvement to win.
Speed map and race shape
Without Pride Of Jenni, the race may be more tactical than recent editions. Pillow Fight and Sass Appeal can press forward, with Surfin’ Bird likely to settle close to them. Lady Shenandoah should be able to find cover midfield, while Unleeshing is likely to be ridden for a late finish. A controlled pace would favour Surfin’ Bird; stronger pressure would bring the favourite and Unleeshing further into play. Check the Derby Day track pattern before betting.
Empire Rose Stakes betting tips
- (1) Lady Shenandoah – $2.30 win: Most likely winner on Group 1 class and weight-for-age form.
- (3) Surfin’ Bird – $4.20 win: Proven Flemington miler and the main danger.
- (5) Unleeshing – $9.00 win: Improving quickly and offers the best value alternative.
- (10) Concord Connie – $7.50 win: Strong Flemington record; include in exotics.
Betting verdict: Lady Shenandoah is the logical top pick, but Surfin’ Bird is a genuine challenger at a more attractive price. Unleeshing is the each-way value option, particularly if the pace is genuine. Include Concord Connie in quinellas, trifectas and first fours. Prices are from the 29 October snapshot and may change.
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