Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, January 9th

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

(8) Oceanzara finds a very suitable race to break her maiden today. She’s only had the five career starts and both runs this time in have been good enough for her to be the one to beat here. First up she was less than 2L off Fair Justice, which I think is a reasonable form reference, and then last start she ran 2^nd to Prize Pursuit. Should be up on speed from barrier 1 and will be in the finish.

(2) Rosso Tempesta ran last first up but they reported that he may have resented the noseband. That comes off today and I expect him to improve second up today, just as he did second up last prep.

(1) Keep it Hush has had some chances but he doesn’t bring the worst form to this. He ran 3^rd to Rebel Heart and Chokslam two starts ago. Chokslam has since come out and won. He then ran 2^nd to Prized Nemesis last start. He’ll be on speed from barrier 2 and will be hard to toss.

Pike goes on (5) I Hope You Dance who is a 17-start maiden but is capable.

Tip: (8) Oceanzara $3.25 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

We have a match race on paper here with (1) Heavenly Waters and (5) Sniparoochy.

I’m leaning towards Heavenly Waters who won the Crystal Slipper Stakes on debut, beating Astrape and Flying Missile. Flying Missile should have come out and won its next start straight after that and that form reference has been solid with the likes of Policiere winning twice out of that race. There is a slight query over the seven weeks between runs, but Pike goes on and I’m just trusting that form reference a bit more than the Sniparoochy one.

Sniparoochy bolted in on debut at Bunbury as the long odds-on favourite. She destroyed them by 4.9L and was throttled down the last 100m. It was only a four-horse field so it’s hard to know what she beat and therefore hard to trust the form at this stage. With that said, she couldn’t have been any more impressive and it would obviously be no surprise to see her go on with it here.

Heavenly Waters draws inside Sniparoochy so tactics will be key.

Tip: (1) Heavenly Waters $2.25 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Heavenly Waters

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

I think the market has it wrong here. (6) Tambora comes up the short-priced favourite at $2.15 after a dominant debut win over 1500m here at Ascot, where he led and put his rivals to the sword to score by just under five lengths. He couldn’t have been more impressive, but that was a very low midweek maiden and this is a huge step up in class. The horse he beat was Diffusion, a 14-start maiden, and he takes on a decent Saturday field at set weights.

Notably, Chris Parnham rode Tambora on that occasion, but he jumps off to get back aboard (1) La Farola, who was a last-start winner over 1400m here in a similar race. She was ridden by William Pike on that occasion as Chris Parnham was on Hot Mix, but Parnham goes back on and Pike picks up the ride on Tambora. La Farola was very heavily backed to win that day and she finds herself well-placed again here at set weights and penalties. The tricky thing is the map from barrier 8, but if she can land a decent spot, I think she’ll be very hard to beat, and at the current prices, I think the market has it wrong.

(2) Chili Is Hot should be ready to go third up at the mile, while (7) Free Solo is crying out to win a race and should appreciate the step up to the mile, but comes into this as a maiden.

Tip: (1) La Farola $4.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN La Farola

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

The $8.00 they put up for (1) Cuballing didn’t last long. He’s been absolutely smashed into $3.20. He showed plenty of ability early on in his career, winning his first two starts. He then resumed last prep without a trial and was only fair, before an eye-catching run second up. He returns from another spell today and has trialled in preparation for his first up run here, unlike last prep. That tells me he should be ready to go, and the market move suggests as much. He maps to get a perfect sit behind a decent tempo and with any luck from barrier 1, he looks the one to beat.

(4) Smart Fox profiles to run well today. He’s never won from 10 attempts when first or second up, but he has won twice from three starts when third up. He improved from his first up run to his second up run, so he should be peaking for this third up today. Include at $27.

(13) Wilchino showed exceptional speed to win first up from a 67-week spell. She should only improve from that outing, and the horse she beat then came out and won its next start easily. The map from barrier 12 looks very tricky so that’s the big issue.

(6) Tinto Belle has returned in great order this prep and should be suited by the tempo of the race – she may be spotting them a big margin coming to the turn but she’ll be the one finishing over the top.

(10) Jaguar Grey and (2) City Circle not hopeless in an open race.

Tip: (1) Cuballing $3.20 Ladbrokes

Value: (4) Smart Fox $27 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Cuballing, 0.25 units E/W Smart Fox

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

The feature of the day is the Easingworld Stakes. (6) Son Of A God is the even money favourite, looking for his seventh win from 10 starts. He’s undefeated from three attempts at Ascot and resumed with a narrow victory here over 1200m. He looked unlikely for most of that race but got up in the final strides. This is his first attempt at 1400m and it won’t be easy as he draws barrier 9, with some speed drawn underneath him. He is the horse to beat but he might be in trouble if he ends up three-wide.

(7) Luke’s Gold has been in consistent form for about a year now and rarely runs a bad race. He has only been about half-a-length off the winner in his past two starts and he drops in weight to 55.5kg today. Barrier 8 is a bit awkward but he’s likely to let it all unfold in front of him. He gets a good weight swing on Dig Deep from last start and at $7.50, I’m happy to go with him each way.

(3) Dig Deep recorded his first victory since the Karrakatta Plate last start, courtesy of a gem from William Pike in the race he sponsored. He maps to get a similar run from barrier 4 today and he does go well at this track and distance, so he’s a good chance of making it back-to-back wins.

(2) Abdicator returns from a spell and is more than capable.

Tip: (7) Luke’s Gold $7.60 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W Luke’s Gold

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

(7) Last Of The Line is a smart customer, with three wins from four career starts. He resumes from a spell today after a very good trial at Lark Hill, which he won by 2.5L. That showed that he’s returned in very good order and if he’s at his best, he’ll take plenty of beating here. The gate is the main issue.

(6) Comfort Me was an eye-catcher with no luck first up, and I was keen on him last start in the Mandurah Cup at Pinjarra. He drew 12 there and they went all the way back from the wide gate and he just had no hope from where he was with the way the track played. He ran the fastest final sectionals of the race. Drawn tricky again in 8 but there does look decent speed which should bring him into it. He’s the value at $8.00.

(8) Solaia cruised in last start but the form has been a bit sketchy out of that race. She should get a good run behind the speed from barrier 1 but she’s going to need luck at some point, unless they decide to be aggressive and lead.

Pike goes on (9) Sassy Trader who hasn’t had much luck this preparation.

Tip: (7) Last Of The Line $3.50 Sportsbet

Value: (6) Comfort Me $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Last Of The Line, 0.5 units WIN Comfort Me

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Keen on a couple at odds here. (11) Regal Magic is a horse I’ve been on in her past two starts, where she’s started big odds both times. She was very unlucky not to win two starts back but she atoned for it with a strong victory last start on Boxing Day. That was over 1500m so the 1600m should pose no problem today; drawn a bit awkward in barrier 10 but with even luck, I think she’ll run very well again at double figure odds.

(13) See Ya Champ is a bit out of her grade here but she’s had very little go right this preparation. She’s got the potential to reel off a big finish but a combination of poor rides, bad luck and unsuitable tracks have meant she’s struggled to get a win this time in. Include her at $23 – she isn’t hopeless.

(7) Queen Takes King is one to watch with regards to the market. First up with Brad Rawiller going straight on first up, having also paired the mare in her two trials this time in.

(6) No Surrender draws the inside and has won or placed in his past eight starts.

Tip: (11) Regal Magic $10 Ladbrokes

Value: (13) See Ya Champ $23 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Regal Magic, 0.5 units WIN See Ya Champ

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Only two horses I’m interested in to close out the day. (8) Mood Swings was a big effort first up and was unlucky not to win – I actually thought the ride cost him. The gelding sat outside the leader and Jordan Turner waited to push the button, but lost the bob to Leica Jaguar who had peeled around his outside. Mood Swings actually ran the fastest final 200m of the race, but still lost, which tells me if he had have gone a bit earlier, he probably would have won. Drawn 12 today, Troy Turner takes over, he should go forward and prove very hard to beat with any luck.

(1) Excellent Dream probably cost himself the race first up when hanging out. Leica Jaguar was the winner that day and that’s been a reliable form reference for a number of weeks now. Excellent Dream goes from Carleen Hefel to Brad Rawiller second up, which is a tactic this stable has used with success plenty of times. Should be right up on speed and will be right in the finish.

We’re getting $3.35 and $5.60 for that pair of runners, so will be backing both, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we got an even better price for Excellent Dream.

Tip: (8) Mood Swings $3.35 Sportsbetting

Also backing: (1) Excellent Dream $5.60 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Mood Swings, 1 unit WIN Excellent Dream