Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, April 24th

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 12:17pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the favourite (3) Gimmie Par here who was spelled after an excellent debut in the Talindert Stakes, running on in the race fastest sectionals to get within half a length of Ingratiating, who has since run 2^nd in a Blue Diamond and 3^rd in a Golden Slipper. That’s the elite 2yo form and unless something really explodes on debut, I struggle to see what beats her. The jumpouts leading into this run have been excellent, the map is good and she’s very hard to beat.

 

(2) Billiondollarbaby looked good on debut leading all the way at Canterbury, although that can sometimes be misleading if the fence is hot. Still, she’s clearly talented and will take some running down.

 

(1) Vandoula Lass was disappointing first up after two good runs to start her career last prep. Not sure what to make of her.

Tip: (3) Gimmie Par- $2.10 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Gimmie Par

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 12:52pm (AEDT)

I had (1) Pride Of Jenni as a horse to follow after a good run first up, only run down late by Agreeable on a tough day to lead. The 1600m is some query, especially with 59kg and having to concede 5kg to a few progressive types, but I think she’s come back well.

 

(3) Brookspire was only 1.9L off Miravalle in the Kembla Grange classic last start, and did SP $3.20 there. The start before she started $3.50 against Harmony Rose and ran 3^rd, but she’s had 6 weeks between runs now which is a strange prep.

 

(4) Perfect World was okay in a brutally run race two back and was good in Adelaide last start, sitting handy and running 2^nd to Ecumenical, who has since run 2^nd in a strong group 3.

 

(7) Americain Angel has an excellent SP profile- in all three runs this prep she’s started $1.80 or shorter and can kick up to be handy down on the minimum weight.

 

I think we might see $4 about Pride Of Jenni given the weight and wide draw and I think that’s a bet.

Tip: (1) Pride Of Jenni- $3.90 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Pride Of Jenni

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)

One of the hardest races to preview maybe ever. (10) Jazz Star is consistent and should lob in a nice spot. 2000m back to 1800m looks like it’ll suit. The run two back over the mile behind Fontein Diamond and Irish Playboy is decent form.

 

(19) Flickitova needs to gain a start but will be a leading chance if he does. The Kiwi import won first up and was good 2^nd up, starting $2.40 in a race that a few of these come through. Hardest to beat but might not make the field.

 

(7) Excelman comes out of the strongest form race behind Inverloch and stepping up to 1800m will suit. He’s finding it a bit tough to win lately but does get Olly back on.

 

(5) Laundy will roll forward from the wide gate and is another suited up in trip, although is only 2^nd up from the 1400m.

Tip: (19) Flickitova- $5.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

Pretty confident Marabi will be scratched from stable reports, which is a shame because better than evens about her looked an easy bet.

 

(15) Sweetzou was a good winner first up, sharing the lead on the inside and kicking away to win by 1.5L whilst the other leaders dropped out. She won on debut before starting equal favourite behind Hindaam but pulling up lame. She gets in with 53kg after the claim and will take some running down.

 

(9) Plaquette was okay first up in Sydney coming from a long way back, with the 3^rd horse since placing in listed grade behind Ellsberg. 2^nd up last prep she ran on strongly to just miss over 1000m before a good 3^rd down the straight in a stronger race.

 

(3) Intrepidacious has won two trials leading in and does have form around some classy mares last prep. The 4^th to Snapdancer and Taileur reads very well although 1100m is probably as short as she wants it.

 

If Marabi stays in, she’s a 3 unit bet and not backing anything else. If she’s out, the prices of Sweetzou and Plaquette will come down and I’ll be having half a unit on each at around $7 and $6 respectively.

 

 

Tip: (15) Sweetzou- $13.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (9) Plaquette- $11.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Sweetzou, 0.5 units WIN Plaquette

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 2:37pm (AEDT)

Another cracking 3yo race but some key double acceptors for Flemington on Sunday. I’m happy to follow the main lead up won by Minhaaj and back two horses here. (8) Winsum was on top for me last start and I thought he ran very well, close to the pace and on the inside which wasn’t the best ground. He had to come between runners and most of the big runs came from the back, so I thought his effort to stick on for 3^rd was good. I like the switch to barrier 6 and up to 1200m should be a positive too.

 

(6) All Of Brighton was enormous in that race to just miss and despite going around at $26 he has to be highly respected. He won two prior to a let up and probably preferred getting back on top of the ground last start. His final 400/200m were the 3^rd fastest on the day and if he can repeat that he’ll be going close here.

 

(1) Immortal Love was perhaps the run of the race in the lead up coming from a mile back, although I think they’ll run at Flemington over 1400m where he looks better suited. Barrier 2 here and only up to 1200m is the query if here.

 

(10) Tydeus is talented and won two straight before failing in the Danehill but looks short enough at $5 to me.

 

Happy to dutch Winsum and All Of Brighton, fairly confident one of them wins.

Tip: (8) Winsum- $3.70 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (6) All Of Brighton- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Winsum, 1 unit WIN All Of Brighton

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

I think we’re getting a great price about easily the best horse in the race, (1) Alfa Oro. His $2.90 SP last start was the longest since his debut, and he’s started odds on 4 times in his career, including in a group 2 where he finished 0.4L off Fabergino, yet he drops to a bm84 here and we’re getting $4+. He was solid first up with improvement to come, chasing Sword Of Mercy and should get a cushier track than last week’s scratching. No problem with the wide gate, he’ll roll across and settle just off the leader and my only slight knock is a fast run 1200m 2^nd up, but I just think he’ll be better than these.

 

(5) Sartorial Splendor will lead- he’s very fast early and mid-race but 1200m is a huge query with him. Alfa Oro ran him down over 1000m and they meet at level weights, with the toppy likely to improve.

 

(12) Superium was unlucky first up for the new stable but needs another win and 1200m is some query with him too.

 

(13) Yulong Storm was also unlucky in the same race and is going very well.

 

The $4.20 for Alfa Oro is a excellent bet and I’m pretty keen to attack the value- he should be under $3 in my opinion.

Tip: (1) Alfa Oro- $4.20 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Alfa Oro

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

(4) Mahamedeis got the cash for us last week and comes here on the quick backup, which he has done successfully before, but he’s coming out of two fast run races and really took the whole straight to get there last week to barely overrun Barry The Baptist.

 

(2) Inverloch was given a beautiful ride 2^nd up over the mile to hold them off. He’s suited stepping up to 2000m with 2 wins and a second from 4 starts, and he’s 2/4 when 3^rd up. Any give in the ground will only suit and he maps to lead this race easily again.

 

(1) Brimham Rocks was good first up behind Inverloch but just struggles to win and it could be a potentially tricky ride from barrier 8 for Stockdale.

 

(12) Killourney looks suited stepping up to 2000m after two good efforts. Gets in on the minimum and should be hitting the line strongly.

 

Tip: (2) Inverloch - $8.50 at BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Inverloch

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

(7) Riddle Me That is absolutely airborne and should’ve won the Victoria Handicap last start in my opinion. He was awfully held up for most of the straight and never really got to build momentum, finishing 0.8L away in 4^th. He was very good first up behind Ancestry and his 3^rd up record is strong. Gets a better barrier here and with even luck I think he’ll be winning.

 

(6) Still A Star ran 2^nd in that race and ran very well but had a similar run in transit to Riddle Me That but got a lovely run around the leaders and was still run down by Mr Quickie. She’s a chance again but I think Riddle Me That turns the tables with even luck.

 

(3) Begood Toya Mother was ridden cold first up in that race and hit the line very nicely. He’s the class of the field but they are trying to ride him off speed and from the very wide barrier he might get a long way back.

 

(5) Missile Mantra had the best turn of foot in a slowly run race first up and won well but goes Zahra to Mertens and faces a different set up here where she may be giving them a bigger head start.

 

Tip: (7) Riddle Me That- $3.95 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Riddle Me That

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 5:07pm (AEDT)

Very tough finish, especially after the scratching of Pesto who goes to Sydney on Sunday.

 

(11) Legend Of Zorro is flying and bolted in after leading all the way last start. This is harder and he’ll cop more pressure here.

 

(7) Cadre Du Noir will be better over further but has won over the mile overseas and was good first up in Australia over 1528m, albeit on a heavy track.

 

(3) Tavirun stuck on okay first up and should improve, although staying at the mile is the concern. A track with some give will help and he has won 2^nd up.

 

(9) Don’t Doubt Dory was good first up and looks better suited here.

 

Would’ve been keen to be with Pesto, but happy to stay out in the last after his scratching.

Tip: (11) Legend Of Zorro- $4.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet