Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, April 24th

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 11:57am (AEDT)

Rarely keen to get involved in a Highway Handicap, especially when it opens the program, but I’ve made (2) Mr Wong my best value bet of the day here. There’s obvious queries around him given he’s first up from a year off the track with just one trial under the belt, but at his best, he’d be giving this a very big shake. He resumed last preparation with a dominant win in a similar race, scoring by 2.5L and he went on to be competitive in harder city races. He bled in his final start last prep, hence the long layoff, but he’s definitely got the ability and at $15, he’s a decent enough price to find out.

(11) Ahead Start won well first up at Wellington and gets JMac on board from a soft draw.

(12) Ceasefire has done little wrong in his first two starts, winning both. The horse he beat last start has since come out and run well again so he has obvious claims.

(16) Boom Boom Basil not hopeless at big odds.

Tip: (2) Mr Wong $17 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Mr Wong

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 12:37pm (AEDT)

Waller holds a strong hand here with the two at the top of the market. Tipping the second elect (1) Matchmaker to win here, coming off a win in the PJ Bell Stakes last start. The PJ Bell is a pretty reliable form reference for this race, with three of the past five winners of this race having come out of that race. She does get an awkward draw so she’s likely to be back, but they did put in a change of tactics last start to go forward from the wide gate, so it will be interesting to see if they try that again.

(2) Kiku has won three from three this prep and is going super. She won over the mile last start and now drops back to 1400m which is my main query, but it’s hard to knock her winning form.

(5) I Say Hello brings the different formline to the race, coming off victories at Newcastle and Hawkesbury. This is a big step up in class but she’s won three of her four starts now and looks to have plenty of talent.

(4) Geist and (6) All Hallows’ Eve also come out of the PJ Bell where they both ran well, so no surprise to see them feature.

Tip: (1) Matchmaker $4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Matchmaker

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 1:12pm (AEDT)

(3) High Supremacy probably should have won the Carbine Club Stakes last start and I’ll stick with him here on his step up to 2000m. James McDonald sticks with him for the Freedman brothers and draws the same gate as he did last start, so with some more luck, he should take some beating.

(1) Lion’s Roar is the obvious class horse dropping out of the Australian Derby, where he ran 3^rd. Prior to that he didn’t get much luck in the Rosehill Guineas, which followed his win in the Randwick Guineas. I’m not typically a fan of dropping back from 2400m to 2000m hence I’ll be against him at the odds-on quote.

Tip: (3) High Supremacy $3.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN High Supremacy

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 1:47pm (AEDT)

(1) Zaaki was good on his Australian debut, finishing off nicely to run 6^th in the Doncaster Mile. That followed two good trials. He should relish the step up to 2000m now and back onto firmer ground also suits. JMac replaces Regan Bayliss and he draws well in barrier 5. Plenty to like.

(5) Entente will go forward and take plenty of catching. He loves this distance and split Shared Ambition and Master Of Wine last start.

(6) Grey Lion finished off his race well first up, running the fastest final 200m of the race. Straight up to 2000m now. He is a cheeky hope at huge odds.

(8) Zeyrek is another that steps up sharply in trip. He drew wide first up over 1400m and now draws the inside over 2000m. Can improve sharply and looks a value chance at $11.

Tip: (1) Zaaki $2.70 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (8) Zeyrek $11 Bet365

Value: (6) Grey Lion $31 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Zaaki, 0.5 units WIN Zeyrek, 0.25 units WIN Grey Lion

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 2:22pm (AEDT)

Super competitive race.

(3) Deprive was warming up nicely late last start before being held up on heels for the final 100m or so. I doubt he would have won but he would have played some part in the finish. He loves Randwick and maybe he’s just taken a run or two to find his best this time in.

(7) Ranier has only trialled ordinarily but he’s a good horse on his day and Bowman has the key to him. He has the potential to run a good race fresh.

Forget (2) Splintex went around in The Galaxy. He was caught five-wide the trip. He’s not one of mine but he should be competitive in a race like this.

(5) Signore Fox beat a bunch of these first up but he doesn’t have as good a second up record which is the query, though JMac is 5/5 on him.

Tip: (3) Deprive E/W $7.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Deprive

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 2:57pm (AEDT)

I’ve made (2) Hilal my best bet of the day here in the Champagne Stakes. This race just looks tailor made for him. He’s drawn wide in all four career starts, which is some explanation for him just getting way too far back time and time again. However, he draws much better in barrier 4 today, so if he can show any sort of tactical speed and take up a position in midfield, he should be extremely hard to hold out at the finish.

(1) Captivant finished narrowly behind Hilal in the Sires’ Produce last start and draws barrier 1 today with JMac going on, so he should settle closer too. I think Hilal has the better finish of the two, so if they’re straightening together, I think Hilal will have his measure.

(10) Port Louis is a maiden having had just the two career starts and it’s interesting placement by the Maher/Eustace camp to step him up sharply to the mile here. Bowman sticks with him and it wouldn’t shock me to see him run a big race at odds.

(3) Converge has done little wrong this prep (and in his career) so he’ll be the one they all have t run down.

Tip: (2) Hilal $3.60 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Hilal

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 3:37pm (AEDT)

The draw for (2) Masked Crusader makes this really interesting. I think he’s quite clearly the horse to beat on the back of his run behind Nature Strip in the TJ Smith Stakes, but barrier 12 means he’s likely going to be coming from a long way back if they are desperate for cover. In any case, I think h’s the best horse here and he goes on top.

(7) Imaging looks over the odds at $21. His run first up in the CF Orr Stakes was terrific, and he was heavily supported in the Newmarket last start but pulled up lame. He’s been freshened up leading into this and on his best form, he would give this a shake.

(1) Kolding should really appreciate getting back onto firm ground for the first time this prep. His four starts this campaign have all been on soft ground, which he doesn’t do his best racing on. Expect sharp improvement.

(4) Dreamforce and (12) Prague can be included.

Tip: (2) Masked Crusader $2.95 Sportsbetting

Value: (7) Imaging $23 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Masked Crusader, 0.25 units WIN Imaging

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 4:17pm (AEDT)

I was on (14) Nudge last start and her run in defeat was one of the runs of the day. She came from last on a day that was hard to make ground and reeled off an enormous burst to fly home and run 3^rd, beaten 0.7L by Starspangled Rodeo. Third up now, down to 52kg and with a more positive draw, she looks very well placed.

(6) Phaistos has a terrific first up record, with four top-two finishes from five starts. He ran 2^nd to Windstorm first up last prep, and the prep before that he was beaten a nose over this track and distance in this same race. Expect a big run fresh.

(9) Starspangled Rodeo is flying and obviously has to be included. He’ll be right up on speed and will be the on they all have to beat.

Market watch on (13) Arapaho who makes his Australian debut for Bjorn Baker and did trial well recently.

Chances don’t end there!

Tip: (14) Nudge $5.10 Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (6) Phaistos $7.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Nudge, 0.5 units WIN Phaistos

Odds Last Updated: April 24, 2021, 4:57pm (AEDT)

Tipping (2) Lost And Running to bounce back here after going down as the $1.60 favourite at Canterbury last start. The pre-race ear muffs go on, he draws barrier 1 and prior to that he’d been nothing but impressive. He can bounce back.

(12) Salina Dreaming couldn’t have been more impressive at Warwick Farm first up, bolting in by 3L. She now has five wins from nine starts and her only defeats have come on heavy tracks. Draws well, gets in with just 53.5kg and looks a very good chance of winning again.

(1) Enchanted Heart ran down Lost And Running first up so has to be considered a chance again today.

Tip: (2) Lost And Running $3.50 Bluebet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Lost And Running