Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, February 12th

(3) Fundraiser is ready now. He started $2.40 favourite 2nd up jumping from 1200m to 1500m and sat 2nd in a very fast early race, where they ended up breaking the track record. He did a great job to stick on for 3rd behind a couple of fitter horses. I like him back to 1400m at Caulfield drawn to stalk the leader. 

(2) In The Boat is the one to beat and flying this prep. He’s been too fast over shorter trips but he’s been strong enough late to suggest 1400m will be okay. There isn’t much pressure for the front and with a typically fast beginning he’ll be very hard to run down again.

(9) Unanimous beat Fundraiser home last start but started longer than him in the market and had a much better run given the race shape. With extra fitness at the same weights I’d be shocked if Fundraiser doesn’t turn the tables. 

(8) Paperboy won quite well last start and should be thereabouts for a placing again.

Fundraiser is overs, In The Boat will be hard to beat and I’m confidently backing both with Fundraiser a slightly better result at the odds. Have something on the quinella too. 

Tip: (2) In The Boat- $2.25 at TAB

Value: (3) Fundraiser- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN In The Boat, 1.5 units WIN Fundraiser

Tough little race. (1) Coastwatch has the runs on the board, having taken on the best 3yo races in Sydney last prep, including a 3rd in the Golden Rose which is excellent form, albeit he had every favour. He’s trialled okay but does get a soft run, likely leader’s back if Willo wants it. 

(2) Spirit Of Gaylard is a talented horse and he has trialled well. 1400m is as short as he wants it however and I can see a couple being a touch sharper here.

(7) Decent Raine is hard to knock, she’s been up a long time but keeps racing well and probably should’ve won a couple more this prep with better luck. The race fitness will mean a lot, but these horses have more talent than her.

(6) Mahrez was enormous first up at Pakenham, getting a mile off them in the straight and charging late. This is obviously much harder but he’s a talent.

Tip: (1) Coastwatch- $4.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Going with (2) Daumier in the boys prelude. I was surprised how he won on debut, sitting 2nd in run and finding plenty when challenged to win quite well. He hadn’t shown much speed in jumpouts but expect he’s right there again from barrier 3. Rampant Lion had trialled excellently leading in and to hold him off in between runners and come away late was a good effort. 

(5) Jacquinot was super on debut, getting a long way back and only really getting clear air at the 200m but finishing brilliantly to score easily. He’s jumped out well since, just a query where he gets to from barrier 1, which could be last on the fence. 

(4) Counttheheadlights was too strong on debut at The Valley, sitting outside the leader and kicking nicely to win. Back to 1100m is a small knock but he’s definitely good enough to win this.

(1) Semillion was too fast on debut last year. The race didn’t rate very well and the form out of it has been questionable, but perhaps he’s the Hawkes horse Wayne was spruiking last week.

Tip: (2) Daumier- $7.50/2.15 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Daumier

Open race for the girls and I’m backing two of the Godolphin horses. (11) Moko hit the line well on debut behind Ebhaar, coming home in some big late splits off a fairly slow tempo. She looks suited up in trip and maps for a decent run.

(9) Sumatra has an awkward draw but comes out of one of the stronger races, running 2nd to Counttheheadlights. She raced greenly around the tight Moonee Valley track but her last 100m when balanced up was very nice, coming home in 11.57 for her last 200m, only 0.16 off the day’s fastest. She’s drawn the carpark which isn’t ideal but I thought she was overs at $19.

(1) Miss Roseiano was tough winning the preview on debut. It was a solid overall performance and she’s a winning chance, but it’s an open race and 1100m will be tougher again.

(8) English Riviera led at a fairly good clip on debut down the straight but weakened late. She’s jumped out well since and will be in this for a fair way from the inside.

Tip: (11) Moko- $15.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Value: (9) Sumatra- $19.00/5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Moko, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Sumatra

(2) Mallory looks over the odds. She’s trialled very nicely in Sydney, the latest taking ground off Home Affairs and the first beating Ranch Hand, Zethus and Anamoe. She probably should’ve won the Silver Shadow first up last prep and they’ve opted to bring her to Melbourne with the blinkers on first time, which all signal a fair bit of intent here. 

(6) Scorched Earth has the runs on the board having won two races this prep. She toughed it out well last start against the older horses, although I’d say 1200m is as far as she wants it- she didn’t run 1400m last prep and was all out the last 50m last start. 

(4) Heresy beat Scorched Earth home first up last prep and was good against the boys. I don’t think she runs 1400m so prepared to forgive anything at that trip or beyond. She’s had the one trial but it was a nice piece of work, getting into 3rd under a hold behind the speedy Malkovich and Minhaaj. She maps for a soft run midfield with Kah on.

(1) Arcaded is a bit in the wilderness but at her best had most of these fillies covered, smashing Scorched Earth in a BD prelude and also comfortably beating the likes of Jamaea in the Magic Night. Her last two runs have been plain but she did trial well under a hold, just beaten by Lost And Running. She’s a big price if she were to find her best form. 

(10) Argentia had huge wraps on her after a very good debut win but injured herself the next start. Not sure where she’s at and expect she’ll get further but watch for her.

Tip: (2) Mallory- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mallory

This is a fascinating race. (6) Open Minded misses the Orr and steps to 1600m for the first time. He’s obviously flying this prep, leading all the way his last two and denying Lighthouse and he gets complete control again here. Off breeding on his sire’s side the mile should be okay. 

(8) Normandy Bridge is a very interesting runner first up in Australia. If he ran up to his best overseas form, he’d be a complete moral here. He’s finished midfield beaten 2.5L by St Mark’s Basilica who is one of the best horses in the world, I just have a small query on him on a good track- his one go overseas he started favourite in a group 3 and could only manage 4th. His 1400m Cranbourne jumpout was very good, ridden out but rounding them up from midfield to win by 3 lengths. 

(1) Callsign Mav adds further interest. I don’t think he really runs a strong 2000m so ignore his Cox Plate effort when well beaten, and obviously this is much easier anyway. His form over 1400-1600m in NZ reads well, having gotten within a length of Avantage and half a length of Melody Belle. I didn’t love his latest trial when he had to be hard ridden, but it was against a couple of smart ones in Embolism and Despatch. He has a very strong fresh record and had he not run in the Cox Plate I’d expect he’d be much shorter. 

(5) Earlswood is another import who has run in some top races. I expect he’s more suited to 2000-2400m however and may need the run here compared to Normandy Bridge.

Not a big betting race with a few unknowns, and Open Minded might just get this too cheaply, but Normandy Bridge looks ready to go and Callsign Mav at his best would be right in this.

Tip: (8) Normandy Bridge- $4.25 at BoomBet

Value: (1) Callsign Mav- $10.00/2.65 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Normandy Bridge, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Callsign Mav

(1) Oxley Road has jumped out very well for this at Pakenham, winning by a big space. First up last prep he was the best of the inside division which was inferior ground compared to Miss Albania out wide. Off a 7 week let up he was too good in the Caulfield Sprint last prep and I expect he leads here from barrier 1. His only go at this T/D he was beaten 1.8L into 3rd by Masked Crusader.

(8) Marine One has been kept fresh for this which I like. He ticked the 1100m box last start when chasing gamely for a long way behind In The Boat in fast time with a gap back to 3rd. He drops 4.5kg in weight and gets Kah on to stalk the speed. 

(2) Artorius has immense talent but I’m still not sure about them keeping him to sprint trips. He’s still missing the start, quite badly in a recent jumpout, and will really need them to run along to get there late. Prepared to risk him at 1100m until he can show something.

(3) Mileva is suited back to 1100m and (5) Sword Of Mercy is a good mare and usually races well fresh although she’s had close to a year off. 

Tip: (1) Oxley Road- $5.00 at Bet365

Also Backing: (8) Marine One- $5.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Oxley Road, 0.75 units WIN Marine One

For my runner by runner preview of the C.F. Orr Stakes, please follow the link:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/c-f-orr-stakes-2022-runner-by-runner-preview/ 

It might just be a case again of (1) Probabeel being too classy for these. She’s won her last two fresh runs, both at this T/D, both with top weight and both being underdone but it hasn’t mattered.  The first time she was steamed from $4.40 into $2.70 and last time she was rock solid at $1.95, which is what she is here. I do think this is a touch harder than previous first up runs, but at the end of the day she’s probably just going to be better than them again. 

(2) Marboosha will pose some resistance. She’s a good fresh mare with a big turn of foot and has trialled quite well behind Malkovich. Her first up run last prep was good behind Entriviere and whilst that isn’t Probabeel’s class, it’s good form.

(5) Rainbiel was very good first up when wide behind Marabi in a very fast race, getting into 4th. She’s had another let up since and jumped out brilliantly, as you’d expect for a horse of her class against not much. She’s probably the one I could mark a bit shorter. 

(3) Flying Mascot is talented and ran well in the Empire Rose before a spell. She won first up last prep albeit in a bm70, I just think she might need the run here over 1200m.

I’ll be hoping for black odds Probabeel which we could get as the market percentage comes down, and Rainbiel I think is the danger, likely finding the front from barrier 2. She’s a decent place bet at $2.10. 

Tip: (1) Probabeel- $1.95 at TAB

Also Backing: (5) Rainbiel- $8.50/2.10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Probabeel, 0.25/1.25 units E/W Rainbiel