Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 12th

(2) Metallicity looks well above average after three good trials leading into his debut here for Team Snowden and Tommy Berry. He’s won all three of them and the stable seem to have good wraps on him, understandably so. Looks quite clearly the horse to beat.

JMac rode Metallicity in his most recent trial but elects to ride the Waller-trained (4) Northern Beaches, who ran 2^nd on debut a month ago. Could be something to do with the Coolmore connection which seemingly has a hold over what JMac rides at the moment.

(6) Rise Of The Masses won on debut at Kembla and as a GaiBott two-year-old will acquit himself well.

Tip: (2) Metallicity $2.10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Metallicity

Another week, another impossible Highway Handicap to bet into.

(7) Dissenter hasn’t done much in her first two starts this prep but she normally takes a couple to come good. She’s run 2^nd in both of her third up runs and she also goes well on wet ground. Tommy Berry booked from the inside gate, don’t be surprised to see a more positive ride. Can outrun its current quote.

(15) Keen Contributor can run a race if she gets a start. She’s currently first emergency. She also comes into this third up from a spell. Wasn’t given much hope last start as favourite at Scone when trapped three wide before being restrained back to last. Drawn awkwardly here but isn’t hopeless.

(5) Leather Jacket Lew has won three from five this campaign, including his past two. Drops back to 1800m now after wins over 2100m and 2200m but draws well and does go well in all conditions.

(4) Racketeering was OK last start, beaten 1.7L in a similar race.

Tip: (7) Dissenter $41 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Dissenter

(2) Outlandos is really knocking on the door for a win this prep. Ran 2^nd three starts over 1800m, then sat four-wide the trip here at Randwick when beaten 1.25L, before finishing a length off Navy Cross in the Magic Millions Trophy last start. Some query on the soft ground but Bowman on from a very good draw, goes close.

(7) Fortified is now third run back from a break with James McDonald retaining the ride. Drawn awkwardly but it’s about this time of their prep and over this distance that they tend to win with this camp.

(6) Casino Kid is flying, winning over 1800m at Rosehill two back before running on strongly to be beaten half-a-length over 2000m last start. Up to 2400m for the first time now, but relishes the wet tracks and should be going very close again.

(8) Maid Of Ore didn’t get a lot of luck last start and was very good behind My Demetra two starts back.

Tip: (2) Outlandos $5.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Outlandos

(1) Delexo looks primed for a first up assault here. Has four wins from seven starts at the distance and is undefeated first up from a spell. James McDonald booked, confident it can carry the weight and win.

(2) Capital Reign is a speedball but his problem is seeing out the end of his races. Was only run down late by Silent Impact though, who then bumped into a smart horse in Maotai.

(3) Invincible Kiss faces a step up in class here but didn’t get any clear air at all on the Kenso last start.

(6) Mabel has returned from a spell with consecutive wins and has never finished out of the top two from five attempts at the distance.

Tip: (1) Delexo $2.80 BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Delexo

It’s hard to take $2.50 about (2) Yiyi here who burnt punters last start when she had every conceivable chance on a track that heavily favoured those on the inside. She drew 1, was given the run of the race and was still run down by the stablemate Wairere Falls. Goes up a kg in weight, hard to dive into the price.

There’s a few signs that point towards (3) Opacity turning his form around here. He was only lacklustre in his first two runs last prep, before winning third up. He’s failed to beat a runner home in his two runs back from a spell this time in, but he did have excuses last start and now gets the blinkers back on third up. Goes well on wet tracks and draws the inside so expect a bit of improvement at each way odds.

(6) O’mudgee was examined by the vet at the barriers before his last run, and prior to that he finished a luckless 4^th to Bring The Ransom. His run three starts back was a win, defeating Canasta, with Above And Beyond back in 3^rd 5L away. He’s undefeated at this distance and can feature at double figure odds.

(1) Wairere Falls won last start and should run well again.

Tip: (3) Opacity $14 TAB

Also Backing: (6) O’mudgee $12 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Opacity, 0.5 units WIN O'mudgee

Good little field assembled here for the G3 Southern Cross Stakes, but there’s a number of them potentially using this as a kick off point for loftier targets down the track.

(2) Laws Of Indices could be one of those, I think he could be a Doncaster horse. He’s a former European horse that made his Australian debut for Annabel Neasham in the Golden Eagle. He sat wide without cover for the majority of that race and battled on well to be beaten 1.75L. This might be a touch sharp for him, and he’s yet to place in three first up runs, but with a full prep under his belt in Australia, he might just go close. JMac booked, goes well in soft conditions and wouldn’t surprise me to see him win.

(5) Embracer is a chance of catching these a run short. There’s no doubt at all that this horse will be tuned up ready to go first up. He’s yet to miss the placings from five starts when first up and he draws the inside gate.

(1) Lost And Running is first up after winning The Hunter. Clearly the proven class runner of the field but has to lump the full 61kg fresh here which makes him vulnerable.

(4) Chat not hopeless.

Tip: (2) Laws Of Indices $6.50 Bet365

Value: (5) Embracer $10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Laws Of Indices, 0.5 units WIN Embracer

Looks a procession for (8) Espiona here who is undefeated from two career starts, with a combined winning margin of 10L. Has a slightly tricky draw to overcome but she looks to have plenty of class on her side.

(5) Fangirl is the stablemate of Espiona and she herself has a good record with three wins from five starts. Those came at her last three starts last prep, the last of which was at Flemington in the Carbine Club Stakes with a winning margin of 3L. Likely to be better over further than this but she is another very nice filly.

The barrier hurts (1) Four Moves Ahead but the wet track plays into her favour and she does get the blinkers on for the first time here.

(2) Hinged will be better over further but is no slouch, with five wins and three 2nds from 10 career starts.

Tip: (8) Espiona $1.55 WinnersBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

I absolutely love (1) Think It Over as a horse but I think he’s vulnerable first up here over 1400m. He’s never won at this distance and he’s got somewhat of a tricky draw to contend with.

Without a doubt the most intriguing runner is (8) Maximal, who has his second start in Australia for John O’Shea. He made his debut on Australian soil in the Golden Eagle, beaten 2.5L. Bowman on, who has ridden him in both trials this prep and some of his European form is particularly strong.

(9) Verry Elleegant resumes on the back of her emphatic Melbourne Cup victory. The query has to be whether she has the sharpness in her legs this prep after the Cup. She went very close first up over this distance last prep but was 3^rd when resuming the prep before, which followed her first Melbourne Cup attempt.

(10) Colette opened at double figure odds but was quickly backed into around $6. I’m guessing that was mostly to do with the predicted rain. I’d be surprised if she was able to win this fresh over 1400m unless the track was a Soft 6 or worse.

(13) She’s Ideel went well fresh last prep.

Tip: (8) Maximal $9.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Maximal

Pretty keen on the chances of (4) Snapdancer here, who is the best on what looks a tricky card. Think this mare has returned in terrific order, with a 2^nd placing behind Special Reward first up followed by a win in the Magic Million fillies and mares race at the Gold Coast. Special Reward has since gone on to win again, so that form looks strong, and James McDonald getting down to 54.5kg is a good lead.

(5) Mirra Vision isn’t hopeless fresh here, with the wet track likely to really suit her. She’s won three from four when first up from a spell, she’s won four from seven at the distance and she’s won five from eight on soft ground. Just has a tricky gate to overcome.

(7) It’s Me made a devastating start to her career but now resumes from a tendon injury, so I think her price will continue to drift and she has to be a risk. Would be a huge training effort to get her back and win.

Tip: (4) Snapdancer $3.70 TAB

Also Backing: (5) Mirra Vision $8.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Snapdancer, 0.5 units WIN Mirra Vision

Interested to see how (9) She’s All Class returns here. She gets the blinkers off for the first time and she also strikes a wet track, which is where her best performances have come on. There’s some query over her form as a three-year-old, but it wouldn’t shock me to see her go bang fresh here.

(8) Le Gai Soleil has three wins from four starts when first up and she has four wins on wet ground. Horror draw so will have to be very good.

(4) Matowatakpe was legless in his first two runs back from a spell, then went to the trials and won by 13L. Blinkers on first time here, strange old prep so far but have to be wary.

Tip: (9) She’s All Class $5.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet