Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, February 11th

Quite keen on (5) Plagiarized on debut. I loved his Geelong trial behind Spirit Of Gaylard who is a big chance in a group 2 tomorrow, coming wider and hitting the line very nicely. He’s a very expensive gelding and I expect him to recoup some of that pricetag. Also important to note, Waller had two in this race with Chain an early favourite, but they’ve scratched that horse and left Plagiarized in by himself so I think they’re quite confident. 

(4) Matao Ma is bursting to win one and comes out of a strong maiden behind Arktika where he led at a fast pace. He’ll have the map advantage and not much pressure which will see him hard to beat.

Tip: (5) Plagiarized- $4.20 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Plagiarized

(7) Award Me clearly looks the one to beat but there’s no betting value at $1.45. The extra trip suits, this is an easier maiden and I expect Kah gets her out the barriers to try and lead from the inside. All things equal, she’ll be winning. 

Tip: (7) Award Me- $1.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

(1) Laundy has been ridden poorly at his last few starts and looks much better suited here. Kah went right back last start and he just held his ground to the line with no hope of getting into it, but with the apprentice claiming here from barrier 2 in a race devoid of speed I expect they’ll lead and his record at this T/D is solid. 

(4) Agnelli is racing well over shorter trips and was good behind Gentleman Roy in a stronger race last start. Small query at the trip, he was the 2nd fastest 400-200m split but only the 4th fastest last 200m and didn’t exactly scream 2000m.

(2) Shakespeare doesn’t help himself with his racing pattern but is going okay and perhaps the smaller field can be to his advantage.

Tip: (1) Laundy- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Laundy

Off their SP profile I can make a case for (6) Glenferrie Girl here as the outsider of the field. She’s been a bit plain her last two at Warrnambool but she started $5.50 and $4.20 carrying 62kg, now dropping to 54kg after the claim. She probably box seats from barrier 1 and will need a bit of luck, but at the price I’m going to spec her.

(1) Francine has won those last two races that Glenferrie Girl has contested, going straight to the front and proving too fast for her rivals. She also gets a 3kg claim down to 58kg and whilst she’ll cop pressure I do think she’s fast enough to eventually lead. 

(4) Destiny Diamond is racing well and was good at this T/D last week, dropping in weight for this bm70 which isn’t all that strong.

(7) Night Of Delight was wide with a big weight last start but good prior.

Tip: (6) Glenferrie Girl- $20.00/7.50 at Sportsbet (2 places only)

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Glenferrie Girl

Another very short priced favourite in (1) Direct who looks too good for these. His last run he split Profiteer and Enthaar which rates lengths better than anything in this class 1 field. Should jump, run, lead and win.

Tip: (1) Direct- $1.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Back to back prohibitively short favourites with (6) Snapped around $1.60. The debut win at Pakenham was very strong, leading all the way in a handy maiden. Any natural improvement will see her very hard to beat here. 

(1) Charm Wing would be the danger after finishing strongly to grab 3rd first up at Flemington. If she can settle a bit closer and potentially land 1-1 she can provide some resistance.

Tip: (6) Snapped- $1.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

(5) Mars Mission should be too good here. His win in maiden grade at Warwick Farm was very good, sitting 3 wide no cover the trip but still letting down powerfully to win well. The small field should help here and anything around even money looks fair.

(3) He’s The Ultimate should be able to lead and take some running down. He had his chance last start and just got there but is still on the up. 

Tip: (5) Mars Mission- $2.10 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Mars Mission

Keen on (3) Delightful Journey to round out the card. He was good here three back just run down late by a smart one in Marcolt before bolting in at Cranbourne two back when leading all the way, beating Honeycreeper who won on Wednesday. Last start he tackled a harder race and was eyeballed by Gentleman Roy, not disgraced in 4th. This is easier and he maps to find the front with ease. 

(2) Barragunda hit the line well last start and now looks ready for a slight step up in trip. He should be able to land closer from the inside and with a bit of luck will be finishing well.

(9) Magnolia Rose will come across from out wide and won well last start with the blinkers first time. 

Tip: (3) Delightful Journey- $3.20 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Delightful Journey