Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, February 20th

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Good race and I think (5) Blenheim Palace is over the odds. He’s a group 3 winner in Ireland and put in a very good effort first up in Australia. He was in Waller’s care but after over a year off the scene, he finally ran here and led the field over 1800m and stuck on really well, only beaten 1.65L by the swoopers. He’ll definitely improve up to 2000m with the run under his belt and does meet the winner 1.5kg better at the weights.

 

(4) Defibrillate was the controversial joint winner of that race and is an obvious chance. This horse is flying, and he probably wasn’t quite suited dropping back in distance last start. His win two back at Flemington over 2000m was very good, I just wonder how big a head start he’ll be giving Blenheim Palace and the other leader.

 

(3) Wolfe is the other leader who probably takes it up. His last two runs in Sydney have been good, running 2^nd in both. He was run down by a progressive horse with 6kg less last start and has won at this T/D off a similar set up.

 

(9) Aussie Nugget steps up to 2000m which I think he’s been crying out for. J Kah sticks and on the minimum weight he’ll be hitting the line.

 

Big respect to Defibrillate and Wolfe but I just think Blenheim Palace is overs.

Tip: (5) Blenheim Palace- at $9.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Blenheim Palace

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(5) It’sourtime is the horse to beat but I’m a touch worried about him coming out of the brutally run Autumn Stakes. He ran well there for 3^rd, 1.1L off Poland, but the effort would’ve taken its toll. I seem to recall Danny O’Brien suggesting he’d be spelled after that run and given he’s now coming out of two fast races, back in trip, I think it could a trappy proposition, even with J Kah taking the ride.

 

(7) Oxley Road was an impressive winner on debut down the straight on a heavy 9 track. He did that very comfortably and looks talented, but this will be a firm deck over 1200m against much better horses.

 

(3) Valaquenta was given plenty to do first up in Sydney but was beaten 4.7L. He’s a solid enough horse and can definitely improve off that run. Back to Caulfield and drawn nicely he’s not hopeless.

 

(4) Saltpeter can improve off the disappointing first up run when beaten 6L but would need to.

 

Not playing here – if It’sourtime hadn’t had the huge 1400m effort last start I’d be very keen, but I just wonder if he’ll be flat.

Tip: (7) Oxley Road- $3.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(5) Impecunious is a horse I’m keen to see again. Her Australian debut over 1200m was outstanding, sitting back off a hot tempo and really powering to the line, putting her high up in some of the 3yo filly’s staying markets. She was scratched and went for a break so is 9 weeks between runs here at 1400m. The late market will be interesting, but I definitely think she’ll be the best horse to come out of this race and can win on ability.

 

(4) Safe Passage has to be respected. She’s been very well backed at both starts this prep and was a tough winner at Sandown, sitting 3 wide no cover on speed but kept kicking to deny the swoopers. The 3^rd horse there Derive won comfortably on Wednesday. Safe Passage draws barrier one, drops 4kg from last start and keeps D Lane. She’s got fitness on her side and I can’t see 1400m stopping her.

 

(3) Malicorne is racing well and just missed La Mexicana last start over 1200m. Her one run over 1400m was awful but she had excuses.

 

(8) Miss Guggenheim will get over further but is very lightly raced and can show up fresh.

 

Backing Impecunious but wouldn’t be shocked if we get a slightly bigger price given the break between runs, and keen to have something on Safe Passage too.

 

Tip: (5) Impecunious $3.10 Sportsbet

Value: (4) Safe Passage $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Impecunious, 1 unit WIN Safe Passage

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

I don’t mind (6) Neighbourhood finally stepping up to 1400m. Both runs this prep she’s encountered slow 1200m tempos- the most recent behind Streets Of Avalon at WFA level. She still managed to run the 2^nd fastest last 200m of the race and her two runs at this T/D have been a win and an unlucky 4^th.

 

(1) Perfect Jewel is the horse to beat. She won first up last prep over 1200m in the Cockram, although that was only off 9 weeks break compared to 16 here. The 1400m is an ideal starting point for her and her first up record is good, it’s just a price issue at $2.

 

Not sure what to do with (2) Sovereign Award. She went too fast for her ability in the Orr Stakes, finishing nearly 11L off Streets Of Avalon. She might be looking for 1600m already but would want to settle better here.

 

(7) Lunakorn has had a let up but Kah sticks and she’s a talented horse on her day.

 

Tip: (6) Neighbourhood $8.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Neighbourhood

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Tough race. (3) Young Werther was completely run off his feet in the brutally run Autumn Stakes. It’s only been 2 weeks between runs and I wonder how it’ll bounce out of that run. He’s obviously a very talented horse who hasn’t put it all together yet- if It’sourtime fails in race 2 it might be an indication that race has cooked a few.

 

(1) Khoekhoe beat Young Werther over 1800m last prep, although that horse was unlucky and probably threw it away. He’s probably being targeted at an ATC Derby and whilst 1800m suits he probably has improvement to come.

 

(10) Parure can win this. The Fastnet Rock filly stepped out to 1600m last start and was too strong late, getting a nice run on speed. I love the map for her again- drawn barrier 4 she probably lands in the 1-1 and the step up to 1800m will be no issue.

 

If it’s on pace early, (5) Narvaez definitely comes into it. He was outgunned late by Parure last start after leading and does meet that filly 1.5kg better for a 0.75L defeat.

 

Parure just maps beautifully behind the speed and I think she has more improvement to come up to 1800m.

Tip: (10) Parure $7.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Parure

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Outstanding group 1 Futurity Stakes. Tricky race to map but this is how I’ve got it looking:

My only note is I think Probabeel will be forced to do a bit of work early up the hill to get that spot- I can’t imagine Crosshaven & So Si Bon will just let her slot into the 1-1 and get the dream run.

 

I have to start with (6) Arcadia Queen- I think she’s probably the best dry tracker in Australia and disregard her at your peril. Completely forget the start of last prep- she had bar plates on, she had feet issues, she was coming off a long spell and they were looking after her. On an unsuitable soft track at this T/D first up last prep she was still only beaten 2.6L by a fresh Savatiano. Go back to her run in the Spring of 2019 where she smashed them first up in the Theo Marks in very fast time. Yes, she was being trained at a 1200m Everest, but she’s too classy to ignore here. She looked to move very well under a tight hold in her Lark Hill trial, and whilst she’ll have to come from the back, she should get clear air and every chance. If she gets within 1-2L of them here, nothing will beat her in the All Star Mile on a dry track.

 

(1) Behemoth deserves to be favourite in my opinion. I loved his first up win in Adelaide over 1100m, powering away from them late in some big late splits. He did a similar thing first up last prep before winning at this T/D in the Memsie Stakes in what was a dominant win. If Olly can get him to jump, as Willo has, and he can settle midfield, he’ll just need clear air to be winning this.

 

(7) Probabeel has to be respected. Her first up win in the Bellmaine was very good with 60kg and the big thing to note was how much the market loved her. She was backed as if unbeatable and it proved right. She’s a very classy mare but I’m not quite sold on her at WFA, group 1 level. She won the Epsom with just 52.5kg and whilst she ran very well in the Cox Plate, I think Arcadia Queen definitely went better. She’s perhaps a bit better suited than the WA mare at 1400m, although the draw is sticky. The outside barrier isn’t ideal at the Caulfield 1400m start and I can’t see her just gliding across to the 1-1 with no competition. More than likely I think she eventually gets cover but will have been softened up to get there, which could leave her vulnerable late.

 

(8) Ole Kirk went very well first up in the Inglis Sprint- probably better than he did first up last prep. He’s much better suited at 1400m but barrier one is very sticky, and this is a huge test outside of his own age group.

(2) Streets Of Avalon will give a huge sight as usual and if the track is playing on speed it sickens me to say that he could pinch another Caulfield 1400m group one.

 

Can’t let Arcadia Queen go around at the price she is, but I will be backing Behemoth too. Level staking the pair of them to make Arcadia Queen the best result. I think Probabeel whilst a very good chance, is the weak spot in the market given the draw and step up in class.

Tip: (6) Arcadia Queen $6.00 TAB

Also Backing: (1) Behemoth $3.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Arcadia Queen, 2 units Win Behemoth

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

For my comprehensive, runner by runner preview of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes, please follow the link below.

Blue Diamond Stakes Preview

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

The third of the group ones, this time the Oakleigh Plate over 1100m and there is speed to burn. I’m firmly of the opinion (18) Anders is the quickest horse here and will cross from barrier 17 to lead, and I think he’s the horse to beat. They’ve targeted this race first up for a while now, and at his best he’d be very hard to beat. His first up run in the Rosebud in the Spring was electric, leading all the way in very fast time to smash Ole Kirk by 4.8L. He then repeated the dose on a good track in the San Domenico, smashing Peltzer by 3.3L. Completely forget his two Melbourne runs- he started $1.35 in the Blue Sapphire and pulled up with issues over 1200m, and clearly wasn’t right for the Coolmore. From all reports he is back to his best and the Geelong trial was outstanding, winning by 4L. I’m really keen on his chances here and I think he can emulate Pippie from last year and run them into the ground here.

 

(6) Ancestry had been screaming Oakleigh Plate all of last prep, where he put up a picket fence, winning all 4 runs. He’s a quick horse who can sustain a strong gallop and generally runs his rivals into the ground. He’s very progressive and a big chance, but he does have to give Anders weight and he’s only really beaten Garner and Villami when owning a 1000m listed race down the straight. I think Anders will cross him so it’ll be interesting to see if he can sit off him and run him down.

 

(7) Celebrity Queen is a danger, and she ticks a lot of boxes. She’s 3/3 first up, 2/2 at the 1100m and has won 50% of her races. She arguably should’ve won the Winterbottom Stakes over Elite Street two back and couldn’t quite reel in Kementari over 1400m last start. She’s trialled reasonably well in WA since, but she’ll need a Pike special to come from back in the field from barrier 3.

 

(4) Standout scares me a bit. He’s been saved from Sydney to run here because he needs a dry track to perform. Two preps ago he bolted in first up in the Expressway Stakes, beating Alizee, and last prep he chased home Classique Legend and Bivouac, only beaten 1.9L. The draw is a bit sticky because he’d probably prefer to be close to the speed but his fresh record is very good and he’s probably worth something at $18.

 

(8) Bold Star ran the fastest splits of the meeting over this T/D first up and generally goes very well 2^nd up. He’s one of the backmarkers that I think can sustain a 600m run and still attack the line off a fast speed, which is what he’ll need to do. Drawn out is a positive for him and he gets in well at the weights with 52.5kg.

 

Really keen on Anders here- I think he can burn these off and lead all the way. Standout and Bold Star are the others that look overs. No knock on Ancestry or Celebrity Queen.

Tip: (18) Anders $8.00 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (4) Standout $18.00 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Bold Star $26.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Anders, 0.25 units WIN Standout, 0.25 units WIN Bold Star

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

The traditional lead up to the Australian Cup and I’m keen to see (9) Nonconformist again. I really liked his run first up over 1600m when attacking the line behind Best Of Days, running the race fastest last 400/200m splits once in clear air. He trialled well leading in and the step up to 1800m definitely suits. The only query is the barrier draw- I can’t imagine them going forward and risking a tough run when it’s not the grand final. On the plus side, he should get clear air and every chance to build momentum and I think the price is fair despite the map.

 

(3) Homesman has been backed early, likely due to the map because he looks to cross and lead. He’s got an excellent first up record, but all his recent form is on soft tracks as a 7yo, suggesting he might feel the firm decks these days. We’ll likely be on a good 3 by now which is some query.

 

(8) Shared Ambition returned with a bang first up in Sydney, conceding 7kg to a handy horse in Mount Popa and getting the better of him. He’ll go back from the gate too but has clearly come back well.

 

(12) Paradee can settle on speed from barrier 1 and is in great form. She’s coming down from Queensland but put in a good run here over 1700m three back behind Defibrillate. Her last two runs have both been dominant wins over this trip and O’Brien can keep this horse ticking over.

Tip: (9) Nonconformist $6.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Nonconformist