Randwick Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 21st

Giant filly (7) Oh Say returns here after a few months off. She debuted in the Winter on what was a complete bog track at Rosehill. She never handled it one bit so it’s worth ruling a line through that and assessing her off her trial form. Her trials leading into the debut were very good, as was her recent trial in preparation for today’s race. I think she shows us her true ability on the firmer deck here.

The Snowdens hold a strong hand here with (3) Edmond and (5) Sirens who have both won multiple trials leading into this. Edmond has had a couple of race starts while Sirens is on debut. Both won trials on the 12^th October at Randwick over 1050m. Edmond posted a 6.8L margin but Sirens actually ran a faster time in his heat, despite the margin being just a length. I think he’s the one from that stable I’d be with.

(6) Tycoonist makes his debut for Chris Waller having previously been trained by Brad Widdup. Always have to respect horses having their first start for this camp.

Top pick: (7) Oh Say $2.70 bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Oh Say, 0.5 units WIN Sirens

I don’t like when horses string 2^nd placings together, but (6) Sweet Reply could be a moral here. She sat three-wide the trip when runner up to Elizabeel two starts ago, and Elizabeel was right in the finish in the Reginald Allen on Saturday (arguably could have won). Then Sweet Reply ran 2^nd to Lord Olympus at Canterbury last start, with that horse now having won three of his four career starts. She draws well in 2, the stable go well here and that form looks superior to the rest. Waller lines up three runners here. Always hard to know where they fit in, especially coming off provincial form.

(2) Kukeracha ran well first up and does have form behind the likes of Peltzer and Rothfire last prep, so he can go well.

(3) Pyrmont can improve third up, while I’m quite happy to oppose (7) Fortune Seeker who comes off wins at Canberra and Goulburn.

Top pick: (6) Sweet Reply $2.40 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Sweet Reply

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Interested in playing the $6.50 each way here for (1) Gone Bye. He was solid enough first up over 1400m here on the Kensington track and should improve second up. We saw him do so second up last preparation when he won over a similar distance to this at Warwick Farm, and I suspect we will see him ridden more aggressively from barrier 1 today to lead.

(4) Bethencourt is clearly a talented horse but $2.15 looks a little on the short side for my liking. His 0.7L win was probably better than it looked last start, carrying 60kg from the widest gate, but he steps up in grade today and probably needs to improve again.

(5) Luvoir continues to run well, with four top-two finishes from her past four starts. She’s drawn a bit awkward in barrier 10 but she has a place chance once again.

(7) Rock Amore gets the blinkers back on.

Top pick: (1) Gone Bye $6.50 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W Gone Bye

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(1) Le Gai Soleil looks the obvious choice on paper here and while she goes on top, there is some query about the firm ground. All of her wins have been on wet tracks. With that said, she’s trialled well leading into this and looks quite clearly the one to beat.

I’d be including (7) Buba as the value at $14 but the concern is she may need wet ground. She’s failed in all four starts on good tracks, but fresh may also be a key for her. The stable goes well here and she did win first up last prep.

(2) Almerheri ran 3^rd first up at Warwick Farm and she should improve off that. She was close up second up here last prep and she’s had a better lead in to this race so she can go well. Nash Rawiller replaces apprentice Tom Sherry which is a big plus, especially with this stable.

Top pick: (1) Le Gai Soleil $2.00 Sportsbet

Value: (7) Buba $14Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Le Gai Soleil, 0.25 units WIN Buba

I’m going to follow the formline from the (2) So Wicked and (6) Highmaster race at Canterbury last start, where So Wicked scored by 3.3L ahead of Highmaster in 2^nd.

So Wicked cops a 3kg rise in the weights as a result of that win but it might not be enough to stop her from winning again. She’s going to need luck from that gate but I just think there’s a bit of substance to that form, whereas some of the other form in this race is fairly weak. So Wicked drifted last start and with the wide gate and increased weight today, I expect her to drift again.

Highmaster gets the tongue tie back on today which should help. He led them up and although So Wicked went straight past him at the top of the straight last start, he fought on well to keep 2^nd. I thought that was a decent effort after looking completely gone at the turn.

(1) White Boots brings some decent form to the race behind Entente and this is a big step back in class, but the worry is the 3kg apprentice on from barrier 10. $14 looks a reasonable price though and I suggest saving on him.

I think the form around the likes of (5) Aspect Ratio, (8) Satin Rain and (10) Sophomore is very questionable.

Top pick: (2) So Wicked $5.00 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN So Wicked, 0.5 units WIN Highmaster, 0.25 units WIN White Boots

Bjorn Baker has a strong hold on this race, with the top two in the market well shorter than anything else.

(7) Belluci Babe was knocked off first up at Wyong as the $1.30 favourite but bounced back last start at Hawkesbury. She looks to be a very progressive sprinting mare and should measure up in this grade, however at $1.80 I can’t touch her.

The stablemate (10) Malkovich cruised home by 4.5L two starts back at Wyong before being run down very late at Warwick Farm last start. From barrier 11 doesn’t map particularly well, drawn to the outside of another speedster, Iconic Star. I’m surprised he’s $4.00 compared to Belluci Babe at $1.80 but his map really is a cause for concern here.

(1) Iconic Star looks to be the horse that’s been overlooked. She’s a winner of six races from 13 starts, including four from seven at the distance. She is drawn to the immediate inside of Malkovich, which means Malkovich could be planted three-wide the trip. Will she put the pressure on up front? She could, in which case it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see something at big odds sail over the top late.

Two roughies that could do that are (4) Invincible Lad at $34 and (9) November Man at $51.

Top pick: (1) Iconic Star $9.00 PlayUp

Value: (4) Invincible Lad $34 & (9) November Man $51 PlayUp

Betting strategy: 0.25 units WIN Iconic Star, Invincible Lad & November Man

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

James Cummings brings one runner to the Kensingtont track today which is (2) Promotions in the last. He didn’t have a great deal of luck at all first up at Canterbury. He’s had a good trial since then and finds a suitable race today. The stable have had three winners from six starters here this season so with any luck he should be going very close.

(3) Bigboyroy has four minor placings from as many starts when he’s first up from a spell. His only start at this track was a 0.4L 2^nd. Notably, he comes here with senior rider Brenton Avdulla booked after a recent trial, despite carrying the full 60kg. Not going with a claiming apprentice suggests he may be ready to run a big race fresh again.

(7) Enchanted Heart has had Louise Day on board for her first two starts this prep, but gets Nash Rawiller on today. She’s had a bit go against her in her first two runs this time in so can improve sharply with the senior jockey going on.

One to include at big odds is (8) The Bald Eagle, who placed first up at Warwick Farm and ran 2^nd when he was second up last prep.

Top pick: (2) Promotions $3.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Promotions