Sandown Racing Tips: 2020 Zipping Classic Day

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Obviously very tough with only 3 horses in the field of 13 having had a start. Of the horses that have had a run, I thought (2) Marine One was a big price at $31. He was beaten 3.2L on debut and in a different race to Finance Tycoon and Ingratiating, but I fancy that’s a fairly strong form line, and he did start $5 there, looking a bit lost down the straight. Zahra sticks and around a bend he can improve.

(3) Anamoe was badly held up on debut and flashed late behind Fake Love. Two debutants hold a huge percentage of the market.

(4) Brazen Boy is all the rage after a 14L trial win in Adelaide. That was in a 3 horse field where he bowled along by himself, so it’ll be interesting to see how he copes with pressure.

(5) Forbes has jumped out very well and looks a classy horse. I’d be leaning to Forbes on top, but at $2.80 I’m not keen to get stuck in. Something small on Marine One at the big odds, each way if you like.

Top Pick: (2) Marine One $31 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Marine One

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Tricky race. We were on (1) La Mexicana last start and she kicked back to win, but I’ve got queries stepping up from 1200m to 1400m and going from a soft 7 to a good 4. No doubt she can win, but she looks a bit short.

(2) Highly Discreet was soundly beaten by her last start, before dropping back to 1100m and running a huge race behind Written Beauty. She ran the 2^nd fastest last 800m of the meeting behind Garner, and I think she’ll be suited at 1400m.

The other form line that I think is very prominent involves (4) Hindaam and (5) Chequerboard at Bendigo. Hindaam was an explosive winner, coming from last and slicing her way through the field in some very strong late sectionals. I loved her last 200m and have always had an opinion of this filly. Clearly the market does too, because she was backed heavily to start $7.50 against Odeum two starts ago. They’ll ride her worse than midfield again but barrier 5 looks ideal and if she can produce that closing effort again, she’ll be very hard to hold out.

Chequerboard led that race and stuck on very well for 3^rd, beaten 1.1L. She was first up there and had an apprentice on board. Fitter here, with Zahra taking the ride and meeting Hindaam 1kg better despite losing the claim, I thought she was over the odds at $18.

Top Pick: (4) Hindaam $5.5 Sportsbet

Value: (5) Chequerboard $18 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Hindaam, 0.5 units WIN Chequerboard

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This has trap race written all over it. We’ve got (2) Kemalpasa as favourite coming off a strong win in the Linlithgow down the straight, which was nothing more than a sprint home. He does seem to do his best racing down the straight, and that was a 400m dash, so he strikes a vastly different set up here. The problem is finding what beats him as most of the chances were beaten on their merits in that race.

(5) Blazejowski was 3L behind him first up and normally races very well fresh but does have a win at Sandown (lakeside) at 1300m 2^nd up last year.

(7) Wild Vixen was an impressive winner first up before perhaps just hitting the front a touch early last start and getting swamped by Rich Hips and Lyre. She only just beat home (6) Music Bay first up, who then led the field and finished last in the Rich Hips race.

(8) Neighbourhood was a good run behind Kemalpasa first up but did start $51 and meets them worse at the weights. It sickens me a bit, but I’ve actually found (1) Streets Of Avalon on top. He’s had a poor prep for the most part, but there have been glimpses that he’s up to winning a race like this. I thought his run last start in the Cantala was full of merit, sitting 4^th in run close to a brutal tempo and battling on well to finish 8^th, beaten 3.2L and easily beating home Buffalo River and Chief Ironside who were both on speed. I don’t mind him back to 1300m, and on paper he gets absolutely no pressure from barrier 4. Coming out of a fast race, they should try and make this a true test and expose the horses coming off a very soft 1200m run. If that happens, he’s not without a chance at double figures.

Top Pick: (1) Streets Of Avalon $10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Streets Of Avalon

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Another very open one over 1000m. I can understand why (9) Express Pass is favourite and I like the freshen up and back to 1000m. I don’t think he ran out a strong 1200m last start at The Valley with 59kg. His two runs prior at 1100m were very good, but from the wide gate he’s just going to get a long way back and the bird may have flown.

(7) Shamino probably didn’t run out 1200m either last start and is 4/8 at the 1000m. The one at big odds that looks suited here is (8) Tony Nicconi. He ran first up in a strong 955m race and whilst he got the run of the race, he had to carry 62kg and fought on strongly to the line. He drops down to 56kg here, meaning he meets (10) Human Nature 5.5kg better after basically crossing the line together. With the added fitness and more importantly at $26 I thought he was worthy of something each way.

(4) Tavisan looks to get a fairly easy lead and will run well first up if left alone.

Top Pick: (8) Tony Nicconi $26 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 unit E/W Tony Nicconi

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I just have to be against the favourite (6) Kenya here. I know he won by 5.3L on resumption, but that race was absolutely legless. Most of the horses in behind him could lob in a Sunday bm64 and start double figures without surprising. He’s got a lot of upside and his overseas form certainly suggests a good level of talent, but this is a big step up and he won’t find the front here.

That role will belong to (1) Buffalo River, who comes here off a 15^th placing in the Cantala. He simply went out way too hard there, setting an absolutely brutal tempo resulting in the first three placegetters settling 12^th, 16^th and 9^th in run. It’s not like he completely dropped out either- he was only beaten 5.1 lengths and was eased down a touch late. His run prior when setting a strong but sustainable speed in the Toorak was excellent, finishing 2^nd to Mr Quickie and a repeat of that performance would win this race on its ear. If that last run hasn’t flattened him, he should be even money here. I like the booking of Kah who will rate him perfectly, and the drop back to 1500m isn’t a negative either.

(3) Junipal started $4 in the Toorak but was beaten on his merits. His huge win the start prior was on a wet track and I’ve got queries on him on a good surface at this level.

(2) Iconoclasm looks the danger at odds. He has a fascinating stat of being 3/3 at the unique 1500m distance, which he finds here. His last two runs have been very good, and he’ll sit on the back of Buffalo River in the run. If Buffalo River wasn’t coming off a tough run, I’d absolutely declare him, but I still think he should be favourite here so I’m happy to have a good bet on him and make Iconoclasm a smaller result.

Top Pick: (1) Buffalo River $3.1 Sportsbet

Danger: (2) Iconoclasm $11.2 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Buffalo River, 0.5 units WIN Iconoclasm

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Sandown Guineas for the three year old’s, and the market is understandably dominated by (1) Aysar coming off back to back 2^nd placings in the Caulfield Guineas and Carbine Club. He’s clearly the best performed horse in the race and at equal weights he looks very hard to beat. My only issue is he’s been up a long time and has effectively had 2 grand finals now. If he’d won the Guineas, I doubt he’d have been in the Carbine Club, and if he’d won the Carbine Club, I seriously doubt he’d be here. He should win, but at $1.70 there’s enough to steer clear of launching.

The value in the race to my eye is clearly (4) Allibor on the quick back up Stakes Day. It was a strange run- he basically got detached early and was under hard riding around the turn, but once he picked up, he really found the line. His last 200m was the race fastest behind Shelby Cobra, who is a horse I rate highly. The step up to 1600m is ideal, and he gets blinkers on first time which should help sharpen him up and keep him in a better rhythm. He’s a bigger price to place than Aysar is to win which looks overs.

(8) Sweet Reply has been desperately unlucky in her last two runs, but that race on Cup Day was awful in my opinion, with a number of hard luck stories in a bunched finish. She has to take on the boys at 1600m here and looks unders. Aysar clearly hard to beat, but Allibor is worth something to cause the upset.

Top Pick: (4) Allibor $11.2 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Allibor, 2 units PLC Allibor

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Two miles for the Sandown Cup, with (5) Sin To Win the current favourite coming off a strong win on Cup Day over 2800m. That was his first win in a long time, and he could go on with it. Certainly the trip will be no issue, but he needs so many things to go right to win.

(3) Miami Bound was out classed in the Melbourne Cup and finished 14^th, about what her SP said she should finish. Her win prior in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup was very good on a wet track, but I still have queries on her on a good surface. I didn’t think her form prior to that win (where she was given a peach and well suited) was anything flash, and she has to carry 58.5kg as a 4yo mare coming off a high exertion 3200m run.

Of the horses in the market I thought (4) Carif was the best chance, coming off an unlucky 5^th in the Hotham behind Ashrun. He only really had clear air for 200m there and was very nearly the fastest last split of the race. He’s never seen 3200m, but I can’t imagine it being an issue, and Kah going aboard is a positive.

The one that could improve, but needs to, is (1) San Huberto. He was awful in the Geelong Cup but his record at 3000m and beyond is good. He may not have settled in, but his best form overseas would win this. With the big weight and awful run first up, I think we’ll be looking at taking closer to $30 on the exchange, and at those odds I could have a peanut on.

Top Pick: (4) Carif $4.2 TAB

Value: (1) San Huberto $21 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Carif, 0.25 units E/W San Huberto

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The feature of the day is the Zipping Classic over 2400m, and the favourite is the much maligned (1) Avilius coming off a flop in the Melbourne Cup. It’s now crystal clear that he doesn’t stay the trip, and if you went off his form prior, he’d be much shorter in the market here. His run three starts ago in the Hill Stakes behind Kolding was very good, beating home Fierce Impact, and his run in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m was excellent when badly held up behind Verry Elleegant. Obviously, he’d prefer a wet track, which he won’t find here, but if he brings his Hill Stakes run on a good track, he’ll go very close.

(6) Lord Belvedere is an interesting one. His last run in the Bart Cummings was poor when pulling up with a few post-race issues. The glue on shoes come off for this and the synthetic hoof filler goes on instead, which I guess is a slight positive. He’s 6 weeks between runs but that’s of little concern, as he has been able to win off long breaks this prep. All 4 of his last runs have been at Flemington, which is perhaps a slight knock, although the form around Persan does read quite well.

Beating him home in the Bart Cummings was (4) Sound who just cannot buy a win. His run in the Hotham last start was good behind Ashrun which is also very good form, but the fact remains he still hasn’t won a race in Australia and is $4.40 here.

(5) Future Score was a big run in the Hotham. He ran on strongly after getting squeezed coming into the turn, but again there’s no meat on the bone at $5. The Melbourne Cup is generally the best guide to this race- we saw Southern France finish down the track last year and prove far too strong here. I’m going to trust that formula again with Avilius, who also gets Olly replacing Allen. If he can just show some intent and sit midfield rather than last, he really should be winning.

Top Pick: (1) Avilius $4 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Avilius

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Deep race and I think there are a few angles to work with. (10) West Wind won’t get her own way as she has her past three runs, which have all resulted in wins. She got the better of Affair To Remember last start, who won the Matriarch on Stakes Day, but this is a much harder race taking on some proven male group horses.

(1) Homesman is one of those and will definitely contest the lead. I thought he had every chance last start and he barely gets a weight swing on those behind him. Perhaps he needs a softer track to perform as he did first up, but he looks short enough as well.

I thought (5) Gold Fields was huge last start in the same race behind Purple Sector, coming from a fair way back and tracking up 3 wide. He looked the winner, but Purple Sector found enough to kick back, with Gold Fields running the fastest last 200m of the race. Two starts ago he started $2.60 and went down by a nose in a sit and sprint to (4) All Too Huiying. Gold Fields meets that horse 4kg better and is $6 here which seems more than fair.

The other horse coming out of the Purple Sector race is (3) Pacodali. He opened a crazy price here, but I still think he’s a big chance at $15. He raced three-wide without cover there, much handier than usual, and whilst he finished 9^th he was only beaten 3.6L. He’s never won 3^rd up, but that record is a touch misleading. His 3^rd up run last prep for Maddie Raymond (since coming from L Smith) was outstanding, finishing 2^nd to Mahamedeis with 60kg. He actually won this race last year, and whilst it has a bit more depth, it does look another target for him, and he draws nicely in 3.

Top Pick: (5) Gold Fields $6.1 Sportsbetting

Value: (3) Pacodali $15 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Gold Fields, 0.5 units WIN Pacodali

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Speaking of deep races, the Summoned Stakes for the mares rounds out the card and you could make a case for most of the field. The favourite is (4) Missile Mantra coming off a good run in the Empire Rose. She did what she always does and settled back, came wide and ran on strongly. It’s what she’s done at basically every start in her career, which is why she’s only won 2 races in her career, which were both as a 2yo.

Very interesting that Damien Lane has chosen to stick with (13) Mrs Beckham over Missile Mantra. That mare won well last start but a strong 1500m would be a query.

I thought there was a decent bet here in the form of (15) Game Of Thorns who comes out of the race on Oaks Day won by Rocha Clock. The winner laid into her in the straight and haltered her momentum to some degree. She was well backed there to start $6.50 and her best form is certainly good enough.

(2) Akari fought on very strongly there after racing wide without cover, only beaten 1.2L and basically crossing the line with Game Of Thorns. She hasn’t won for a while but off that run has to be right in the game, just needing a bit of luck from barrier 1.

The one at huge odds that can run a bold race is (14) Ethical Solution. She’s a whopping $91 here and is coming off a desperately unlucky run first up in the Black Pearl at Geelong. She presented into the race fairly well, but was badly checked in the straight, basically being stopped dead in her tracks. It was race over after that, but she still picked herself up and went through the line as well as, if not better than the horses around her. She doesn’t have the runs on the board but has shown talent as a 3yo, and now with the Kennewell stable, she draws well in barrier 4 and at the monstrous prices you could do worse.

Small bets on Game Of Thorns, Akari and Ethical Solution.

Top Pick: (15) Game Of Thorns $9.1 Sportsbetting

Danger: (2) Akari $12.2 Sportsbetting

Value: (14) Ethical Solution $91 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Game Of Thorns, 0.5 units WIN Akari, 0.25/0.75u E/W Ethical Solution.