Sandown Racing Tips: Saturday, January 23rd

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(3) Artorius got back to last in the field of 5 on debut, racing greenly out wide and copping a bump whilst the winner led all the way. Up to 1300m should suit, but barrier 11 isn’t ideal as I’d expect he has to go right back again. The money has come early, and at the opening $7 he would’ve been a bet, but at $4 now I’m happy to stay out.

 

(1) Picarones is the obvious coming off a solid debut win at Caulfield. She was under pressure a fair way out, but Olly kept stoking her up and she kept finding, putting a length on 2^nd. She looks like 1300m will suit but I don’t think she beat much on debut.

 

(5) Shadowheart looks the best of the newcomers and potentially the bet in the race. Jamie Kah isn’t generally a go to jockey for Danny O’Brien, but they’ve combined 19 times this season for 5 wins at a 26% strike rate and a whopping 194.2% POT. The horse looks to have plenty of talent too, trucking through the line under a tight hold in a Werribee trial.

 

Tip: (5) Shadowheart $6.80 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Shadowheart

 

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Fairly average race for a Saturday. (4) Irish Butterfly resumed as a gelding at Warrnambool, running on strongly after being held up. I did note he was very well backed that day, suggesting he’s come back a different horse.

 

(5) Dune Field has had a few weeks between runs now but the run two back at The Valley was good. He’s 2/2 on the Hillside track and maps well.

 

(7) Altai Ranger resumed with an easy all the way victory at Werribee on a day that favoured leaders. This is a step up, but Zahra takes the ride, and he should be fitter.

 

(10) Gottaluvjimmy isn’t completely hopeless. He wasn’t given much hope when coursing very wide at Geelong first up. He was beaten out of sight on debut but improved sharply at start number 2 to win his maiden by 2L, with another 3.25L back to 3^rd. He beat absolutely nothing, but I think you’ll get $50+ on the exchange and he’s worth a tiny nibble at those odds.

 

Tip: (10) Gottaluvjimmy $31.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.25 units WIN Gottaluvjimmy

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Plenty of angles here. I think we could finally see (4) Run To Perfection do something in Australia. Completely forget his two runs last prep when pulling up with post-race issues at both starts. I didn’t mind the first up run down the straight, coming from last to run home in the 2^nd fastest last 600m of the race behind Riding The Wave and Alburq. He’s better suited at 1300m.

 

(3) Indispensable has done nothing wrong having won his last three. He puts himself on speed and gives his all. He maps nicely again and will be around the mark in a slightly tougher race.

 

(5) Imperial Lad resumed as a gelding and won nicely first up. He skips a grade up to bm78 here and whilst he’s an obvious chance I thought the $3.20 on offer was a touch short as he’ll cop pressure from the inside draw.

 

(9) Second Slip is the tough one. The Australian debut at Murray Bridge was good and some of his NZ form reads well for this, notably the run behind My Gold Bracelet. Kah takes the ride and with 55kg he can win again.

 

I think there’s enough pace on to suit Run To Perfection, who should be fitter and will appreciate the 1300m in what I think is a weaker bm78.

 

Tip: (4) Run To Perfection $7.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Run To Perfection

 

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Last chance for (2) Mosh Music. I thought she’d be very hard to beat last start at Flemington, but after drifting notably late in betting she was just average when settling close to the speed. From all reports she still had improvement to come from the yard, and I think she’s better ridden cold after not letting down as well last start. A repeat of the Lord Stakes run wins this, and her two runs over this distance range were wins. Her one 4^th up run was a dominant win, and I have to butter up again as the best horse in the race.

 

(3) Double You Tee beat her home last start but hasn’t won since October 2019. He also meets Mosh Music 2.5kg worse, and as I’ve outlined, I don’t think she was at her best or well suited there.

 

(5) Bartholomeu Dias has been around the mark but ultimately disappointing this prep. I thought he had every chance at Flemington last start as favourite and he couldn’t deliver. Kah takes the ride which is a huge positive, as she can get these horses struggling to really find their best form, but I can’t have him shorter than Mosh Music.

 

(6) Stars Of Carrum was good in the Mosh Music race also but is 1 from 24 and like Double You Tee, finds ways to lose when he looks suited.

 

Tip: (2) Mosh Music $3.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Mosh Music

 

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Keen here. (2) Quantum Mechanic is the best bet of the day and looks exceptionally hard to beat. She was solid first up at Caulfield and elevated significantly 2^nd up at Flemington. In my opinion she should’ve won easily- she went back from a wide draw, then ended up last at the 400m mark and badly held up behind horses. She only got clear at the 250m and rocketed home to miss Fundraiser by 0.3L, running her final 200m in 11.76. She drops back to mare’s grade, draws to sit midfield, and with Kah sticking I can’t see anything but bad luck beating her. Anything above $2 is a great price.

 

(1) Intellective is flying with consecutive wins this prep and would be suited stepping up in grade here if she didn’t run into Quantum Mechanic, who I think is simply a better horse.

 

(3) Lady D’oro is going well and has the 1600m run under her belt now. She beat Quantum Mechanic home at Caulfield, but that horse was only first up, and the margin wasn’t great.

 

(9) Jealice next best off a strong first up win in weaker grade.

 

Tip: (2) Quantum Mechanic $2.30 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN Quantum Mechanic

 

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

I nearly declared (7) Duke Of Neworleans last start on the Lakeside, where he started $1.80 and ran 3^rd beaten 0.9L. The query there was a dry track after bolting in on a heavy track on debut, and it looks to have brought him back to the field. He still does a fair bit wrong and I can’t be backing him again on a dry track.

 

(4) Bella Tiara is racing well and was given a nice ride to win at Caulfield last start. She seems to enjoy getting back and sprinting off even tempos. I’m not sure that’s the right form reference but she should run another good race.

 

(1) Milton Park got the perfect run first up but did win nicely. The two favourites didn’t exactly show up there, but he’s obviously come back a better horse.

 

(6) Wise Counsel will get over further but did run 5^th, beaten under 3L to Young Werther over 1500m last prep.

Most horses here seem to have holes in their form, and I can’t get entertained by any of them. The best ride probably wins the race.

 

Tip: (1) Milton Park $5.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The 2^nd race of the day I’m really keen to bet in, because (5) Grinzinger Allee looks beautifully placed here. He should’ve won first up over 1400m in my opinion when held up in the straight and flashing home for 2^nd, no match for one out wider who was able to build momentum earlier. If this were 1600m I’d nearly declare him, because his mile form last prep was excellent, but 1500m is okay and the set-up is ideal. He drops to 54kg, gets Kah on, and draws perfectly in barrier 4.

 

(3) Rule The World was the horse to beat him last start, and whilst I thought Grinzinger Allee should’ve won, Rule The World’s win was very good. There’s a 3kg swing in the weights to Grinzinger Allee which will make it hard, and he’s never seen 1600m.

 

(4) Fundraiser is flying and ticked the 1600m box last start at Flemington. He’s adaptable and will run well again.

 

(8) Caffrey meets Fundraiser 3kg better for a 0.2L defeat last start. He gets in with 54kg as well but has really struggled to win this prep when having every chance on numerous occasions.

 

Very keen on Grinzinger Allee, and I will be having a double with Quantum Mechanic earlier.

 

Tip: (5) Grinzinger Allee $2.60 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN Grinzinger Allee

 

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Very interesting runner with (2) Heart Of Puissance accepted. He’s accepted and scratched twice recently, and notably the stable have taken the blinkers off in that time. He’s easily the most talented horse here- with any race sense he’d have bolted in with a Sandown Guineas, but it’s hard to know where he’s at. The market should tell you if he’s ready to go, but at $3 he’s not a horse I want to launch at.

 

(3) King Magnus is very consistent and will run another good race but had every chance last start and could only manage 2^nd.

 

(8) Spud could be a touch of value. He’s an ex Hong Kong horse who managed to win first up off 90 weeks at Bendigo. Last start he was caught 3 wide no cover and kept coming, only going down by 0.6L to Indispensable.

 

(11) Whittington Stone led that race and had every possible chance, managing to hold on for 2^nd. He’s never raced beyond 1400m which is a query.

 

(1) Bell’s Innocent was the unlucky runner there when held up. Where she gets to on the map is the query, but Riordan rode her perfectly to win two back.

 

Very small bets on Spud and Bell’s Innocent.

 

Tip: (8) Spud $14.00 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Bell’s Innocent $18.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.25 units WIN Spud, 0.25 units WIN Bell’s Innocent

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Giving (8) China Affair another chance. They tried to stretch him out to 1100m last start, and I don’t think he really got the trip. He’s a pure 1000m sprinter, with 3 wins and 2^nd from 5 starts at the trip. He won his only start at the T/D and gets some weight relief here.

 

(3) Ididitforlove beat China Affair last start. He meets that horse 3kg worse off and drops back to 1000m. Whilst he’s won 50% of his starts at the trip, including at this T/D first up, I’m not sure he’s as suited dropping back to the 1000m.

 

(6) Elite Legacy looks the value. Completely ignore his last run when he reared at the start and the jockey lost the irons. He did start $31 there against Ididitforlove and co, but he’s won 6 races from 19 starts at the 1000m and likes the Sandown track.

 

(5) Not Enough Effort was another good run down the straight first up. Elite Legacy clearly had his measure when they met here last year, although Not Enough Effort did start $4.20 on that occasion.

 

Plenty of other chances in a tough finish to the day. Backing China Affair and Elite Legacy.

 

Tip: (8) China Affair $6.10 Sportsbetting

Value: (6) Elite Legacy $23.00 Sportsbet