Racing Tips

Hobart Racing Tips: Sunday, January 24th

It’s a huge day of racing in Tasmania! ‘The Horse’ has taken a look at the Hobart card, including the Elwick Stakes, Thousand Guineas & Summer Cup.

by
The Horse
23 January 2021

It’s a huge day of racing in Tasmania! ‘The Horse’ has taken a look at the Hobart card, including Race 1, the Elwick Stakes, Thousand Guineas & Summer Cup.

Race 1

Milton Pettit (Bm84) (1400m)
1:10pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Milton Pettit (Bm84) (1400m) 1:10pm (AEDT)
1. Mystical Pursuit (5) J: Brendon Mccoull (59.5kg) T: Adam Trinder	2.4	2.4	2.65	2.4
2. Balearic (1) J: Craig Newitt (59kg) T: Ms L Gaffney	2.5	2.7	2.55	2.7
3. The Master Speed (2) J: Peter Lui (54.5kg) T: Wayne Curran	7	7.5	6.9	7.5
4. Manilenya (6) J: Bulent Muhcu (54kg) T: Ms J Richards
5. Paion (4) J: Troy Baker (54kg) T: G S White	5.5	4.8	5	4.8
6. Thewordsout (7) J: Stan Tsaikos (54kg) T: Ms T Mollross	26	31	27	26
7. Worthy Opponent (3) J: Jason Lyon (54kg) T: J F Luttrell	251	151	321	151

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Happy to side with the short priced favourite (1) Mystical Pursuit after an okay showing at better races this preparation. The form behind Toorak Affair just looks a little classier than what the opposition has faced, and although this is a solid BM84 to commence the day, the depth is limited. One for the multiples.

The threat is (2) Balearic with Craig Newitt in the saddle. Wasn’t ready fresh but can no go on with it. No doubt they had this race pegged as a target.

Tip: (1) Mystical Pursuit $1.70 TAB

Race 2

Ladbrokes Mdn (1200m)
1:45pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Ladbrokes Mdn (1200m) 1:45pm (AEDT)
1. Apologize (13) J: Brendon Mccoull (58.5kg) T: Ms J James	101	151	161	151
2. Don'tbuckme Off (12) J: Kyle Maskiell (58.5kg) T: J F Luttrell	11	11	11.2	11
3. Gee Royal Swan (5) J: Peter Lui (58.5kg) T: L, D & T Wells	91	101	111	101
4. Lucky Bucky (14) J: David Pires (58.5kg) T: Scott Brunton	3.4	3.3	3.05	3.3
5. Wild Destiny (15) J: Ianish Luximon (58.5kg) T: J K Blacker
6. Laylow Pluck (6) J: Jason Lyon (57kg) T: Scott Brunton	31	34	35	34
7. Merv Decides (8) J: Stan Tsaikos (57kg) T: T W Evans	4.5	4.8	4.65	4.6
8. Travelling Gigolo (4) J: Ismail Toker (57kg) T: Scott Brunton	18	18	18	18
9. Deb's Dream (2) J: Ms Sigrid Carr (56.5kg) T: J E Hill	27	41	32	31
10. Miss Enthusiasm (11) J: Craig Newitt (56.5kg) T: L, D & T Wells	8	8.5	8.5	8.5
11. Red October (7) J: Anthony Darmanin (56.5kg) T: I D Hay	10	11	10.2	11
12. Signal Hill (10) J: Troy Baker (56.5kg) T: G S White	23	26	23	21
13. Amancaya (1) J: Ms Georgie Catania (55kg) T: Scott Brunton
14. Gee Gee Real Deal (9) J: Randy Tan (55kg) T: S Gandy	6.5	6.5	6.9	6.5
15. Moonlight Knight (16) J: Randy Tan (58.5kg) T: Scott Brunton	51	61	57	51
16. Unbothered (3) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Scott Brunton	34	51	41	34

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Race 3

Hygain (C1) (1600m)
2:20pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Hygain (C1) (1600m) 2:20pm (AEDT)
1. Gaius Julius (7) J: Ms Sigrid Carr (59kg) T: Sigrid Carr	7	7	6.9	7
2. Little Hot Missile (3) J: Anthony Darmanin (59kg) T: J F Luttrell	11	11	11.2	9.5
3. So Astounding (8) J: David Pires (59kg) T: Tegan Keys	3.5	3.8	3.65	3.8
4. Weldborough (1) J: Brendon Mccoull (58.5kg) T: Ms L Gaffney	5	5	4.95	4.8
5. Dunmining (10) J: Ms Georgie Catania (57kg) T: Tegan Keys	23	26	22	21
6. Encosta Fiorente (4) J: Stan Tsaikos (57kg) T: J F Luttrell	6	6.5	6.5	6.5
7. Needarein (2) J: Ismail Toker (57kg) T: Cameron Thompson	46	51	51	41
8. Port Berry (12) J: Bulent Muhcu (57kg) T: J K Blacker
9. Scots Wha Hae (6) J: Jason Lyon (57kg) T: G S White	61	91	101	81
10. Stelladoni (9) J: Troy Baker (57kg) T: Scott Brunton	6.5	6	6	6.5
11. Call Me Shiloh (5) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Scott Brunton
12. Rosehaven (13) J: Peter Lui (55kg) T: Cameron Thompson	46	67	59	51
13. Chi Mazel (14) J: Craig Newitt (56.5kg) T: J L Keys	31	34	30	34
14. Bestie's Daughter (11) J: Ianish Luximon (55kg) T: Yassy Nishitani
15. Lupanar (17) J: Randy Tan (54.5kg) T: Imogen Miller	21	19	21.5	21
16. Rising Light (15) J: Thomas Doyle (56.5kg) T: Gaetan Delon
17. Videmanette (16) J: Unknown (57kg) T: Scott Brunton

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Race 4

Wakeful Club Hcp (C1) (1100m)
2:55pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Wakeful Club Hcp (C1) (1100m) 2:55pm (AEDT)
1. Bronze Star (2) J: David Pires (59kg) T: Scott Brunton	16	19	16.2	15
2. Hot Wired (7) J: Ms Georgie Catania (59kg) T: Scott Brunton	9	9	9.6	9
3. Coronation Doris (10) J: Ms Sigrid Carr (56.5kg) T: Sigrid Carr	46	51	53	51
4. I'm A Floozy (1) J: Anthony Darmanin (56.5kg) T: Angela Brakey	3.9	3.9	3.75	3.9
5. Reward Achiever (4) J: Miss Codi Jordan (56.5kg) T: G J Stevenson	2.15	2.35	2.2	2.25
6. Sparkling One (8) J: Troy Baker (56.5kg) T: Cameron Thompson	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
7. Gee Gees Doubleyou (5) J: Randy Tan (55.5kg) T: L, D & T Wells	34	41	40	34
8. My Diana (6) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Max Cowen	26	21	25	23
9. Gee Gee Redhead (3) J: Stan Tsaikos (54kg) T: S Gandy	41	51	47	34
10. Perfect Words (9) J: Jason Lyon (54kg) T: G S White	23	20	26.5	23

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Race 5

Tas Bloodstock Elwick Stks (1100m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Tas Bloodstock Elwick Stks (1100m) 3:35pm (AEDT)
1. Turk Warrior (6) J: Ismail Toker (57kg) T: G J Stevenson	1.5	1.45	1.45	1.45
2. Gee Gee Als Prince (4) J: Troy Baker (57kg) T: S Gandy	21	26	26.5	23
3. Lacerate (7) J: Ms Sigrid Carr (57kg) T: Rowan Hamer	31	41	40	34
4. Ensnare (5) J: Randy Tan (57kg) T: G J Mcculloch
5. Miss Charlie Brown (2) J: Bulent Muhcu (55kg) T: Adam Trinder	3.9	4.2	4.1	3.9
6. Geegee Lucky Jess (8) J: Craig Newitt (55kg) T: S Gandy	9.5	10	8.9	9.5
7. Neutralize (3) J: David Pires (55kg) T: Scott Brunton	20	21	23.5	23
8. Kissless (9) J: Anthony Darmanin (55kg) T: Cameron Thompson
9. Tappa Pass (1) J: Stan Tsaikos (55kg) T: Scott Brunton	71	151	111	101

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

The 2yo Elwick Stakes looks a race of two, between two unbeaten runners, (1) Turk Warrior & (5) Miss Charlie Brown. They have both shown plenty of ability, but I am leaning towards Turk Warrior after an impressive first-up win. He came over the top of them to win by 3 lengths in a 1000 metre contest. The slight jump in distance will only pronounce his abilities further. Gets an acceptable draw and may land one back along the fence.

Miss Charlie Brown on the other hand gets a sticky gate due to less gate-speed, and she risks getting stuck behind the favourite, and she simply may not be able to get past him.

Tip: (1) Turk Warrior $1.80 Sportsbetting

Race 6

Steves Liquor 1000 Guineas (1600m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Steves Liquor 1000 Guineas (1600m) 4:05pm (AEDT)
1. Vivilici (3) J: Anthony Darmanin (56kg) T: Adam Trinder	7.5	7	7.9	7
2. Gee Gee Goldenlass (10) J: Randy Tan (56kg) T: S Gandy	35	51	45	51
3. Hela (9) J: David Pires (56kg) T: Scott Brunton	1.95	1.8	1.86	1.75
4. Assaranca (8) J: Brendon Mccoull (56kg) T: Ms L Gaffney	7	8.5	6.6	7
5. Mystical Beauty (5) J: Bulent Muhcu (56kg) T: Adam Trinder	15	15	15.4	16
6. Thelma (11) J: Craig Newitt (56kg) T: Brendan Mcshane	5	4.8	4.9	5.5
7. Lady Of Fortune (6) J: Ms Sigrid Carr (56kg) T: Sigrid Carr	27	31	33	34
8. Indigo Girls (2) J: Ismail Toker (56kg) T: G J Mcculloch	61	91	83	81
9. Kay Oh Ell (1) J: Ianish Luximon (56kg) T: Yassy Nishitani	27	34	29.5	34
10. Rockymountainhigh (7) J: Ms Georgie Catania (56kg) T: Scott Brunton	101	201	181	151
11. Crystal Pallazo (4) J: Stan Tsaikos (56kg) T: Ms R Hall	201	201	341	151

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

It’s tough to go against another favourite here in (3) Hela after 3 from 3 for the sharp Brunton stable. She has been putting space between her and her competition, and should continue to perform well with each step up (in class and distance). The wider gate is a little annoying, with plenty of inside speed likely to make her task tougher. With even luck David Pires should be able to get her home and be right in the mix. With that slight query, worsened by a large field, she is a little under the odds. This of course means there may be value to be found if she proves to be vulnerable.

That comes in the shape of (5) Mystical Beauty who gets a nice gate and should be up with the leading few. She is going for a hat-trick after a convincing win last start. The Dissident filly is dynamic and can lead or sit on-pace, so she should have her chance. At around $3.00 the place, she is a nice each-way option. We can get our win stake back with a saver on the favourite.

Tip: (5) Mystical Beauty $14.00 (each-way) Sportsbet

Saver: (3) Hela $2.00

Race 7

Tas Bloodstock Summer Cup (2200m)
4:50pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Tas Bloodstock Summer Cup (2200m) 4:50pm (AEDT)
1. Mandela Effect (11) J: David Pires (59kg) T: Scott Brunton	3.8	3.9	3.85	3.8
2. Eastender (1) J: Craig Newitt (59kg) T: Ms L Gaffney	3.9	4	3.95	4.2
3. Exoteric (6) J: Ismail Toker (59kg) T: Scott Brunton	71	151	111	126
4. Captain Cook (2) J: Brendon Mccoull (59kg) T: C N Goggin & Luella Meaburn	13	15	13.2	15
5. Super Swoop (13) J: Kyle Maskiell (59kg) T: J K Blacker
6. White Hawk (14) J: Stan Tsaikos (59kg) T: Angela Brakey	91	151	131	151
7. Gee Gee Fiorente (8) J: Bulent Muhcu (59kg) T: L, D & T Wells	18	19	17.6	23
8. White Cliffs (9) J: Ms Georgie Catania (58kg) T: Angela Brakey	31	51	38	51
9. Toorak Affair (4) J: Anthony Darmanin (57kg) T: M S Trinder	2.7	2.45	2.65	2.4
10. Shady Hustle (10) J: Daniel Ganderton (57kg) T: Stephen Lockhart	26	21	25.5	18
11. Glass Warrior (12) J: Ms Sigrid Carr (57kg) T: J K Blacker	11	15	11	18
12. Our Declaration (7) J: Jason Lyon (57kg) T: S Gandy	151	151	221	151
13. C'est Bon (3) J: Troy Baker (57kg) T: R T Carr	151	151	221	151
14. Toricain (5) J: Ianish Luximon (59kg) T: R T Carr

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

This is a great edition of the Summer Cup! Staying with the classy (9) Toorak Affair as she looks for 3 straight. The 7 year-old veteran has 39 starts for 14 wins and 8 places. She is peaking at this track and distance, maintains the services of Anthony Darmanin and finds a perfect draw to drop in behind the leaders. She won’t have much to do, and if she manages to stay out of trouble, she is going to be might hard to beat.

(1) Mandela Effect has been racing well behind Toorak Affair, but despite having plenty of quality, he doesn’t look like he can turn the tables. The wider gate makes things that little bit tougher. (3) Eastender cannot be ignored, and despite not winning for a little while now, he can show up on the big stage. The value is with (5) Super Swoop who goes around at $31.00—one for the exotics.

Tip: (9) Toorak Affair $2.65 Sportsbetting

Race 8

Summerofracing.Com.Au (Bm66) (2100m)
5:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Summerofracing.Com.Au (Bm66) (2100m) 5:30pm (AEDT)
1. Sir Simon (9) J: Miss Codi Jordan (65kg) T: Scott Brunton	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.8
2. Odin's Folly (10) J: Ms Georgie Catania (60kg) T: Scott Brunton
3. Banca Nip (4) J: Ismail Toker (59kg) T: Rowan Hamer	11	13	12.2	11
4. Banca Syd (12) J: David Pires (59kg) T: Scott Brunton	6.5	7.5	6.8	6.5
5. Costero (6) J: Kyle Maskiell (58.5kg) T: J K Blacker	4.6	5	4.95	5
6. Generalmaintenance (5) J: Craig Newitt (58.5kg) T: J K Blacker	13	15	13.6	15
7. Toricain (3) J: Stan Tsaikos (58kg) T: R T Carr	9.5	9.5	10.2	10
8. Elisavet (7) J: Brendon Mccoull (57.5kg) T: Ms L Gaffney	11	9.5	9.9	9
9. Gee Gee Flash Too (2) J: Ms Sigrid Carr (56.5kg) T: S Gandy	18	18	17.8	13
10. Rodessa (8) J: Bulent Muhcu (55.5kg) T: J K Blacker
11. Poole Harbour (11) J: Troy Baker (54kg) T: G S White	31	31	31	34
12. Pinkeyes Pride (1) J: Peter Lui (54kg) T: J F Luttrell	81	151	83	81

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.