Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 21st

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Going with (3) Saint Tropez on top for a couple of factors- he handles wet and can be close to the speed. The win first up at Echuca on a heavy 10 was good from a wide barrier, but from barrier 5 I’d expect him to be closer, and I feel a lot of these will get back on a tricky track.

(2) Murrami Express is one that can roll forward. Led all the way to break his maiden three starts ago at Geelong over Set The Sails, which was definitely a day you wanted to be on speed, but he’s run well since and is suited up to 1300m here. The run last start was solid over 1000m on a soft 7 when wide.

(11) Red Rocketship was huge last start at Cranbourne charging home late, has run 2nd on a heavy track but from barrier 16 he’s one that is likely forced to go back which could be an issue.

(4) Sistrum has won on heavy but is another likely to get back in the field.

Not particularly keen in such a huge field of 2yo’s but Sant Tropez and Murrami Express can both map well and should handle the ground, where I think it’ll be an advantage to be on speed.

Tip: (3) Saint Tropez- $15.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (2) Murrami Express- $10.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Saint Tropez, 0.25 units WIN Murrami Express

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(5) Carrie was 6 weeks between runs heading into last start where she was forced to sit 3 wide no cover off speed with 62kg which was always going to be tough. She has to take on the boys here, but does relish wet tracks, drops 4kg and does look the leader which should help. Will take some running down.

(4) Sign Seal Deliver will keep slogging away on the wet track but was a touch disappointing two back on a heavy track, albeit in a harder race. Maps well.

(10) Fort Charles is flying but this is a step up in grade. Has won his last two on heavy tracks.

(12) Just As Soon likes wet tracks and is going well, can push forward from a wide gate.

 

Tip: (5) Carrie- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Carrie

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

(10) Rockribbed has been well backed early. Started $1.45 and was too good on debut and should’ve won last start in a class 1. The map is very nice, but he’s never seen a soft track and we could be dealing with a heavy.

(7) Kamien loves wet tracks with 3 wins from 4 starts. The map isn’t too bad from barrier 7 and despite her record at 1400m I don’t think it’s much of an issue given she’s won over 1300m. Not hopeless at $19.

(13) Turaath maps well and looks suited up in trip.

(12) Alumna won a fairly strong class 1 first up and started $2.90 last start but was basically eased out of the race. Should lead which might be the place to be.

 

Tip: (12) Alumna- $21.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Alumna

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

Couldn’t really split the top two. (2) So You Assume won the main lead up leading all the way and will look to do so again. Probably doesn’t deserve to be much longer in the market than the horse she beat last start.

(1) Breeze ‘n’ Luna ran a narrow 2nd there and does like heavy tracks, so there’s a strong case to be made she’ll turn the tables.

I’d rather just be against (10) Write The Score who was well beaten in that race as favourite. I’ve got a query on her at 1600m, especially on a heavy track and especially on a track that may be hard to make ground. Losing J Kah doesn’t help either.

(3) Ayahuasca drops in grade after a $2.10 SP in a bm70 last start. Query is where she gets to on the map and how much head start she gives these.

No bet in the race but I’d be looking to lay Write The Score if she stays under $5. Has to drift.

Tip: (2) So You Assume- $6.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

Tricky little race. (6) Petruchio looks ready to win. Had him as a horse to follow last start on a Caulfield track where runners making runs out wide were disadvantaged. Plenty of winners with similar runs have come out and won since then, it’s just where he gets to on the map again. He had to chase a brutal speed a long way out there so should be at peak fitness here and will go well.

(12) Unfair Dismissal gets in with 52.5kg and will go forward from the wide gate. Wet ground is no issue at all and despite being up in grade I think he gets a few things in his favour here as opposed to last start. Like the booking of Teo.

(1) Right You Are ran very well first up on the same Caulfield track as Petruchio. That was a fairly strong race and this is easier, barrier 1 is a bit tricky with the top weight only 2nd up.

(2) Maritana likes wet tracks, can push forward and run well.

 

Tip: (6) Petruchio- $5.50 at TAB

Value: (12) Unfair Dismissal- $15.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Petruchio, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Unfair Dismissal

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

(4) Amfissa won well last start and looks suited up to 1600m. Should get a good run from barrier 1 and wet ground is okay.

(14) Aquileon should push forward from a wide gate and has upside after winning nicely at Werribee last start.

With Toomuchtobear scratched I’m happy to stay out here.

 

Tip: (4) Amfissa- $4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

Wanted to find (8) Helavabel up in trip next start and he gets that after hitting the line well over 1000m first up, but he doesn’t have any heavy track form and is going to give them a headstart, which might be tricky today.

(12) Jay Gatsby got nabbed on the line first up and will go forward from a wide gate. Handles heavy tracks and has been well backed.

(16) Zoupino loves heavy tracks, if she can settle a bit closer she might be hard to hold out.

 

Tip: (8) Helavabel- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

(1) Nerve Not Verve has to carry weight but does look the leader in the field and likes wet tracks. With a good ride, she’s going to be hard to catch with many of her main rivals likely to get back in the field.

(7) Perennial chased Nerve Not Verve last start and does like wet ground. Just query where she gets to on the map again and she doesn’t get any weight advantage here.

(5) Heaven’s Gift looks ready to win 3rd up, again likely to get back in the field but should run well.

Tip: (1) Nerve Not Verve- $4.80 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Nerve Not Verve