Randwick-Kensington Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 21st

Race 1 Admire Mars At Arrowfield Mdn (1100m) 12:50pm (AEDT)
1. As You Were (11) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: Bryce Heys
2. Baranof (10) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: John Thompson	15	16	17	17	13.4	16
3. Bil Colyns (8) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: G Portelli	31	31	31	31	30	31
4. Bully For You (2) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: Ms G Markwell	61	67	71	81	65	71
5. Devil's Throat (3) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: P & P Snowden	8	8	8	8	9.1	8
6. Dickson Horse (7) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: Mark Newnham	6	6	5.5	6	5.8	6
7. Fox Fighter (15) J: Unknown (56kg) T: David Payne
8. Ghost Hunter (14) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: R J Quinton	26	26	26	31	23	26
9. Governor (6) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	5.6	5.5
10. Publicist (1) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	13	13	13	14	14.2	13
11. Retiro (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg) T: G Portelli	7	7	7	7	6.9	6.5
12. Starman (12) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller
13. Vindication (13) J: Unknown (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
14. Brigantine (9) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: James Cummings	3.1	3	3	3	3.05	2.9
15. Maralago (5) J: Unknown (56kg) T: A J Cummings	41	51	67	51	53	51

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

Really liked the trials of (9) Governor leading into this and he’s been one I’ve wanted to follow into his debut run. This race looks well within his reach today and the booking of Berry is a pretty good lead. 

(14) Brigantine has the benefit of race experience and should be much improved coming into his 2nd prep. Trials have been solid.

(5) Devil’s Throat is the other debutant who’s looked above average at the trials and looks to get all the favours from gate 3. 

Tip: (9) Governor - $5.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Governor

Race 2 Darley Supporting Catwalk Mdn (1100m) 1:25pm (AEDT)
1. Beep Test (11) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: J A O'shea	4.4	4.2	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.2
2. Girl Mania (17) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Jean Dubois
3. Great Mystery (14) J: Glen Boss (56kg) T: C E Conners	26	26	31	31	27	26
4. In The Blink (12) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: K A Lees	12	12	11	12	11.6	12
5. Laurelin (15) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: James Cummings	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.7	3.85	3.8
6. Ninja Star (16) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: Matthew Smith
7. Our Belle Fille (2) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: Peter Robl	23	26	26	31	27.5	26
8. Ringarosa (6) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (56kg) T: G Portelli	31	31	31	31	31	34
9. Rolene (5) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: Matthew Smith	46	61	61	71	53	61
10. Ruby Kisses (9) J: James Innes Jnr (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou	8	7.5	7.5	8	7.6	7.5
11. Sneaky Paige (7) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: Mark Newnham	5.5	5.5	5	5	5.6	5
12. Typhoon Taavi (8) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	14	15	14	15	14.8	15
13. Yatsumi (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: P & P Snowden	15	15	14	15	12.2	15
14. Camplin (10) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: James Cummings
15. Williams Bay (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg) T: R & M Freedman	20	20	19	19	18.2	21
16. Flying Squad (4) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Ms G Markwell
17. Tapis Magique (13) J: Unknown (56kg) T: David Payne

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

Another tough 2yo contest here but I’m going to side with (1) Beep Test who was only narrowly beaten on debut last month. Trials were very good leading into that and she will take plenty of benefit from that debut run. Hoping she can go one better here. 

(11) Sneaky Paige was another who looked the part in the trials and started favourite on debut before running 2nd. Bumped into a pretty handy one there and should improve here. 

(14) Camplin has won a trial leading into this and has race experience on her side following a solid debut prep. She continued to get better each run and ran 2nd last time out as a short priced fav. Looks over the odds here.

Tip: (1) Beep Test - $6.00 at Bet365

Value: (14) Camplin - $21/$6 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Beep Test, 0.5 unit EACH WAY Camplin

Race 3 Sky Racing (Bm72) (1550m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. Mother's Mercy (7) J: Tom Sherry (61kg) T: Paul Messara	6.5	6	6.5	6.5	6.5	6
2. Amicitia (1) J: Grant Buckley (58kg) T: R P Northam	21	21	21	21	20.5	23
3. My Demetra (4) J: Sam Clipperton (58kg) T: P & P Snowden	4.6	4.5	4.2	4.6	4.6	4.4
4. Perfect Radiance (5) J: Tim Clark (57.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	12	11	13	12	11.4	12
5. Raptures (3) J: Joshua Parr (57.5kg) T: K A Lees	26	26	26	26	25.5	26
6. Canadian Spice (9) J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg) T: C J Waller	4.4	4	4.4	4.4	3.75	4
7. Twice On Sunday (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: Bjorn Baker	7	7	7.5	7.5	7.1	7
8. Leisa Louise (2) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: K A Lees	11	11	11	11	10.8	11
9. Raccolto (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.6	5.5

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

(3) My Demetra looks well placed here 2nd up and out to a more suitable trip. Was good running 4th here behind a handy one and has a very good 2nd up record. Doesn’t win out of turn but gets a nice setup today.

(1) Mother’s Mercy is clearly a horse with talent, winning five of her seven career starts. Will roll forward and make her own luck and comes off a tough win over 1400m.

(7) Twice On Sunday is airborne at the moment and will be looking for a third straight win here. This is obviously tougher but can’t count out on recent form. Stable is flying.

Tip: (3) My Demetra - $5.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN My Demetra

Race 4 Tab (Bm72) (1300m) 2:35pm (AEDT)
1. Invinciano (2) J: Brenton Avdulla (61.5kg) T: Joseph Pride	9	9	9	9.5	9	9
2. Trajection (5) J: Tom Sherry (61.5kg) T: Ms K Waugh	23	21	26	26	21.5	21
3. Off Shaw (9) J: Joshua Parr (61kg) T: Bjorn Baker	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.35	3.2
4. He's A Hotshot (10) J: Ms Rachel King (60.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
5. Ranges (3) J: Regan Bayliss (60.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	10	11	11	11	10.4	11
6. Olympic Legend (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59.5kg) T: L J Bridge	13	13	13	15	11.4	13
7. Kinloch (6) J: Hugh Bowman (58.5kg) T: K A Lees	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.45	3.4
8. Hot Spring Gold (1) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: C J Waller	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.4	4.4
9. Majella (8) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: Matthew Smith	31	31	31	31	27.5	31
10. Undoubted (4) J: Ms Louise Day (55.5kg) T: J C Coyle

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(7) Kinloch looks hard to beat here today following a good run for 6th in a strong Saturday race last start. He was slow out of the gates there but made up a stack of ground along the rail and will enjoy getting back to the Kenso track where his record is good.

(3) Off Shaw looks the clear danger following a narrow 2nd to stablemate last start. Probably not going to get it as wet as he likes however puts himself on speed and has a likeable race pattern. 

(8) Hot Spring Gold loomed like the winner last start before being beaten by a handy one. That was off a 6 week break so he should take plenty of improvement from it. Looks suited rising to this trip now. Just needs a good Jmac ride.

Tip: (7) Kinloch - $3.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 unit WIN Kinloch

Race 5 Heineken (Bm72) (1800m) 3:10pm (AEDT)
1. Accountability (2) J: Brock Ryan (61.5kg) T: C J Waller	8.5	9	9.5	10	8.3	9.5
2. Knight (11) J: James Mcdonald (61kg) T: Ms K Waugh	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.45	4.2
3. Shuffle Up (12) J: Regan Bayliss (60.5kg) T: R & M Freedman	10	10	10	10	10.2	10
4. Mr Gee (7) J: Hugh Bowman (59.5kg) T: J A O'shea	5.5	5	5.5	5	4.95	5
5. Time Raid (8) J: Tom Sherry (59.5kg) T: J C Deamer	18	17	18	19	17.8	17
6. Picaro (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (59kg) T: G Portelli	7.5	6	7.5	8	7.2	7.5
7. White Boots (1) J: Joshua Parr (59kg) T: Ms K Waugh	12	12	12	11	10.6	12
8. This Is So (9) J: Ms Rachel King (58kg) T: A J Cummings
9. Power Of Attorney (3) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56.5kg) T: Peter Robl	23	21	26	26	22.5	26
10. Peekays Legacy (10) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: P & P Snowden	5	4.6	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.6
11. Riverstock (4) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Joseph Ible
12. Notabadharada (6) J: Jean Van Overmeire (54kg) T: J & G Lee	23	21	21	26	19.8	23

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

(3) Shuffle Up can run well here at a double figure price. Was warming up late over 1550m here last start and looks suited getting out t0 this trip for the 2nd time in his career. Had been going around in stronger races than this recently and has now found a winnable race 4th up. 

They attempted to drop (10) Peekays Legacy back to the mile last start which didn’t help his cause and it looks a much better setup back out to this trip here. Was a winner over the 1800m two back and has flashed ability this prep.

(4) Mr Gee was a tough winner last start over a slightly longer trip but will grind away yet again and looks a chance.

(1) Accountability should be a big improver back in this grade and looks ready to peak 4th up from a spell. Could speck him EW.

Tip: (3) Shuffle Up - $11 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Accountability - $11 at bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Shuffle Up, 0.5 unit WIN Accountability

Race 6 China Horse Club (Bm72) (1550m) 3:45pm (AEDT)
1. Chains Of Honour (1) J: Tim Clark (62kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou	21	26	26	21	18.8	23
2. Hit The Target (3) J: Brock Ryan (61.5kg) T: S C Jones	12	11	11	12	11.2	11
3. Greek Hero (7) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: J C Deamer
4. Yukon (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	3.9	3.9	4.2	3.8	3.65	3.9
5. Kutayha (6) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: C J Waller	2.45	2.45	2.45	2.5	2.55	2.4
6. Nelspruit (5) J: Regan Bayliss (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	7.5	7	7.5	7.5	6	7
7. Salsonic (9) J: Tom Sherry (55.5kg) T: J C Coyle
8. Silent Agenda (10) J: Jean Van Overmeire (55.5kg) T: Joseph Pride	5.5	5.5	4.8	5.5	4.8	5.5
9. Microna (8) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: J A Steinmetz	21	20	20	21	17.2	21
10. Eden Vale (11) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: Mark De Montfort	41	41	51	41	32	41
11. Elon (2) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: G R Nickson	81	101	151	151	99	126

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

Thought there was plenty to like about (4) Yukon’s last start performance, bumping into a handy one in the Bring The Ransom. Yukon was 6 weeks between runs that day and you’d expect he will be ready to peak now 3rd up out to this trip. Avdulla takes the ride from barrier 4 and he should be able to take a sit in behind the speed and be too strong late. Only missed the trifecta once in six career starts and looks to have a but of upside about him.

(5) Kutayha is a model of consistency and rarely runs a poor race. The little freshen up and dropping back to a sharper trip might be the key to him now.

Tip: (4) Yukon - $3.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 unit WIN Yukon

Race 7 Vinery Stud (Bm72) (1100m) 4:20pm (AEDT)
1. Accelerato (1) J: Tim Clark (61.5kg) T: Joseph Pride	17	18	20	19	17.8	21
2. Exceltic (12) J: Tom Sherry (59.5kg) T: G Portelli	10	10	9.5	10	10.2	10
3. Irish Angel (3) J: Hugh Bowman (59.5kg) T: C J Waller	2.45	2.35	2.4	2.6	2.45	2.3
4. Mr Polar (8) J: Jean Van Overmeire (59kg) T: C P Porter	51	61	61	61	51	71
5. Invincible Lad (5) J: Sam Clipperton (58kg) T: P & P Snowden	23	21	21	21	18.4	26
6. Dubai Star (9) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham	7	7	8	7.5	6.6	7
7. Frozen In Time (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57.5kg) T: K A Lees	17	18	20	19	18.2	21
8. Up Trumpz (4) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56.5kg) T: J M Cleary
9. Brazenpine (11) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: P & P Snowden	20	21	21	21	18.6	26
10. Escape Artist (7) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: Mark Newnham	7.5	7.5	8	7.5	7.5	8
11. Jenga (6) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	5	5	5.5	5	4.9	4.8
12. Secretively (10) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: A J Cummings

Odds Last Updated: July 21, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

Keen to see (11) Jenga back at the races today. She looked above average winning under a hold on debut before knocking up and running 8th in her 2nd career start. If you can forgive that run and go off her debut win and recent trial, she looks hard to beat here. Clearly has plenty of ability and I’m hoping she comes back a much improved horse this second prep. In a race without too much obvious speed she should be able to roll forward and hopefully give a good kick in the straight.

(3) Irish Angel has been in good form this prep and probably goes close to winning last start with clear running room in the straight. Hard to knock and race fitness is a positive.

(6) Dubai Star comes into this after a successful hit and run mission in QLD. Should roll forward and could easily go on with it now.

Tip: (11) Jenga - $4.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 unit WIN Jenga