Morphettville Racing Tips: Saturday, May 8th

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 12:12pm (AEDT)

(2) Star Of Uma is going to take a stack of beating in the opener. She bolted in first up last prep at $1.55 and went on with it nicely, walking in with a bm66 2^nd up and then worked hard at Sandown but stuck on well for 3^rd behind Hindaam and La Mexicana which is borderline group class form. The only query with her is 1000m given she’s never raced below 1200m, but class will take her a long way and I thought the trial was fine when not asked for an effort.

 

(1) Great Leveller beat the older horses last start at Balaklava. This is harder but it was a nice win.

 

(5) Sea Witness is one that interests me. He was dominant breaking his maiden two back at Oakbank with Holder on and was only run down late last start in a class 1 by Wide Awake, who has been competitive in some decent Melbourne city races. Holder jumps back on here which is a good lead and she should go forward from the barrier.

Tip: (2) Star Of Uma- $2.10 at Sportsbet

Value: (5) Sea Witness- $20.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Star Of Uma, 0.5 units PLC Sea Witness

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 12:47pm (AEDT)

I think the ANZAC Day Stakes is the premier lead up for this race, won by (1) Three Kings and I think he deserves to be favourite here. He was well backed that day and he was held up and had to wait for a run which I don’t think really suited. Once he got the gap about 200m out he did well to sprint and with a better passage he’ll be hard to beat again.

 

(10) Biscayne Bay went back from a wide gate and made a long, sustained run in the same race. The key is weighing up whether her long run in clear air was better than that of Three Kings who was more economical but couldn’t build momentum. If she can settle closer from barrier 3 she’s a huge chance.

 

(3) El Rocko was good in that race also at $26 but might have to go back from barrier 11.

 

(9) Cloudy has won two in a row but steps to 1400m for the first time and I think she comes through the weaker races.

 

Tip: (1) Three Kings- $3.35 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Three Kings

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 1:22pm (AEDT)

It needs to get a start but if (19) Wings Of Pastrami makes the field she’s a great bet. I liked the way she hit the line first up over 1200m at $3.00 and does race well 2^nd up. Gets the 3kg claim for Opperman and some of her 3yo form reads very well for this.

 

(6) Going Gaga absolutely bolted in at Oakbank first up in her first win for a long time at $21 after pressing on to lead. Lane takes the ride which helps but she probably has to regress from that effort.

 

(5) Neodium worked hard with 62kg last start and ran well. He won two races prior to that and drops 4kg here, but this is harder than what he’s been contesting.

 

(4) May Be Fate is consistent and should run well again.

 

Incredibly difficult race. If Wings Of Pastrami gets a run I’ll back her, but otherwise this just goes in the too hard file.

Tip: (19) Wings Of Pastrami- $10.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Wings Of Pastrami

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 1:57pm (AEDT)

Looks solid speed on paper and I think (3) Too Good Too Hard can sit midfield with cover and pounce late. First up over 1000m she was a touch plain, but she’s not effective over 1000m in a fairly strong race. First up last prep she was okay in a group 3 at Caulfield before putting in a huge run when 2^nd to Wild Vixen and was well backed that day.

 

(2) Designer Chef races well here and gets Olly on. He was solid in a good race at Caulfield last start and can race on speed.

 

(7) Music Addition looks the leader and should ensure a decent clip coming back from 1400m. He’s better suited at 1200m.

 

(10) Midnight Storm will kick up from barrier 1 and gets in with 54kg.

 

(1) Octane is the best horse in the race but both runs in this prep have been below par, albeit in harder races. 1200m is a huge query with this horse.

Tip: (3) Too Good Too Hard- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Too Good Too Hard

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 2:32pm (AEDT)

They should go fast here over the 1050m. (5) Button Express has the best form but hasn’t won for a while. She only had one run last prep and ran 0.8L 4^th over 1000m in a bm78 at The Valley. Her form around mares like Felicia reads very well for this and the airborne Lane takes the ride. I doubt she’s quick enough to lead but she doesn’t have to go right back from a wide gate, and I’d be content with her sitting wide around the one turn and out of trouble.

 

(6) Load And Go is a quick horse early and is lightly raced. The 2^nd to Soul Obsession three back reads well for this when run down late.

 

(7) Appalachian is the favourite and has a big finish on him. He’ll get back, probably to last and be storming home. Should get the right tempo to do so but it’s still a low % play.

 

(4) Brazen Brando can improve and maps for a nice run tucking in behind the speed from barrier 2.

Tip: (5) Button Express- $3.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Button Express

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 3:12pm (AEDT)

(7) Reynolds goes on top. The market has clearly identified the Murray Bridge race it comes out of as the main lead up, where Reynolds started $2.15 favourite and ran 3^rd. He looked to travel well but probably hit the front too early, 3L in front but the swoopers came out wide and he just battled home. Lane replaces Eaton, which is a positive and he gets in with 54.5kg. Respecting the SP last start and the strength of the wins prior.

 

(5) Sadente won that race paying $6 in a good effort. She meets Reynolds 2kg worse off and will be giving him a start again but 1800m shouldn’t pose an issue.

 

(12) Bajan ran 2^nd there at a big price and did win this race last year. He also meets Reynolds worse at the weights but is a longer price at $34 in this race than the $26 last start.

 

(8) Monteferrante has been racing okay but struggles to win. Vorster sticks with him and he was only 1.1L off Bajan in this race last year.

Tip: (7) Reynolds- $3.00 at Bet365

Value: (12) Bajan- $34.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Reynolds, 0.25 units E/W Bajan

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 3:52pm (AEDT)

The feature, and sole group 1 on the card is the South Australian Derby, won last year of course by Russian Camelot. I’m going for a bit of value here and siding with (6) Deepstrike on top. He’s always profiled as a true stayer and this race has been on the cards all prep. I loved the win two back at Sandown and you might not see a sicker watch than last start in the Chairman’s Stakes. He never once got clear and went to the line completely untested. D Lane replaces Dee for the grand final and I don’t mind barrier 9.

 

(4) Let’s Karaka Deel is a horse I’ve always had time for. He’s a lightly framed son of Dundeel who will have no problems at 2500m. He was back and tried to come wide last start in the Port Adelaide Guineas and I loved his last 100m there, taking ground off the winner Royal Mile who snuck up along the rails. Gets up in trip for Maher/Eustace, which is always a positive, he was only 2.2L off them in the Victorian Derby and he does have the ability to go forward which they haven’t yet done this prep. Surely up to 2500m in a group 1 they push the button.

 

(1) Explosive Jack is clearly the best performed horse in the field coming off an ATC Derby win which was very good. His run in the Bendigo St Leger Trial was huge with 58kg coming from a long way back which ties these in, although the form out of that race has been questionable with Favreau beaten fair and square since and Khoekhoe and Lion’s Roar both poor in a group 3 since. I don’t think there’s much between that ATC Derby form and the rest of the 3yo staying form so he looks short enough at $3.

 

(15) Personal scares me. She was a huge drifter last week in the Oaks, coming off an awful run in the Vinery behind Hungry Heart, eventually starting $16 which is crazy for a horse of her ability. She bounced back hard, running on hard for 2^nd to Media Award. I think this is a stronger race, but we saw her win a fast run VRC Oaks off a 7 day backup. I think she’s short enough now at $5 but she’s a huge chance.

 

I’m taking on Explosive Jack- I think he’s too short at $3 and the form out of the ATC Oaks has been awful. Scary to take on the camp but he’s been up forever and has to maintain that peak. Stablemate Let’s Karaka Deel can win if they go forward, which I think they will, and Deepstrike was off the map in the main local lead up and probably should’ve won. Lane goes on and he’ll eat 2500m. Terrified of Personal on the backup, and no knock Royal Mile who is flying.

 

Tip: (6) Deepstrike- $8.50 at Unibet

Value: (4) Let’s Karaka Deel- $14.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Deepstrike, 0.5 units WIN Let’s Karaka Deel

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Very interesting edition of the Adelaide Guineas. (1) Cherry Tortoni has been freshened since the Tulloch Stakes, where they absolutely crawled in front and he had no chance given the race shape and track bias on the day but was probably the best run of the race. He was only 0.6L off Young Werther who ran a very narrow 2^nd in the Derby. The run prior in the Alistair Clark when $1.85 was a bit poor, but again he had no chance given the savage bias on the day and where he was in run. Going back further, his run in the Australian Guineas was absolutely enormous over 1600m and it may be that his best trip is the mile given his two best career runs have been at the trip. His recent trial over 990m was an A++ when coming down the outside to win under a hard hold. It’s a slightly strange prep but if he turns up near his best he should be $1.30, not $2.15 and on the drift early.

 

(8) Agreeable being 2^nd favourite only goes to show that is the weakest race Cherry Tortoni has faced in a long time. She’s a handy filly that won well two back and whilst she got back last start, she followed the winner up the inside and I thought she just battled the last 100m. Up to 1600m can help and Lane sticks but I’m not sure that form is any good.

 

(7) Highly Discreet beat her home there and was a better run in my opinion. Draws wide here which is the concern but should run well.

 

(3) Casino Seventeen could be the danger coming back from 2040m in the Chairman’s Stakes. He stuck on fairly well there for 6^th, beaten 2.4L and the start prior in the Port Adelaide Guineas for 3^rd was good, not far off Let’s Karaka Deel. Drops back in trip but gets Olly and will make his own luck.

 

Even with a disjointed prep and any potential track bias, Cherry Tortoni is classes above these at set weights and I’m starting to think 1600m is his best trip. He’s clearly on top from Casino Seventeen who should roll forward and at least provide a tempo for the favourite.

Tip: (1) Cherry Tortoni- $2.15 at Sportsbetting

Saver: (3) Casino Seventeen- $7.50/2.10 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Cherry Tortoni, 0.25/1.75 units E/W Casino Seventeen

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 5:07pm (AEDT)

(2) Toff Love is going to get back in the field but there’s pace drawn inside and outside which should set up an above average tempo. The win at Oakbank was dominant and he was the best closer from back on the fence last start. The recent trial win was very good and Vorster replaces Coffey which is a positive.

 

(6) Soul Obsession didn’t appear to appreciate racing on the inside last start from barrier 1. She draws barrier 2 here and could end up in a similar spot if crossed. She loses Lane but does get Price’s 2kg claim and 53kg looks attractive. 2^nd up now and out to 1100m looks suitable.

 

(5) Trip led Soul Obsession last start and was only grabbed late, finishing 0.7L in front of that horse and meets her 2.5kg worse at the weights this time.

 

(9) Secret War started $2.50 last start at Gawler and is racing well, next best.

Tip: (2) Toff Love- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (6) Soul Obsession- $4.30 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Toff Love, 0.5 units WIN Soul Obsession