Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, September 4th

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 12:31pm (AEDT)

No reason to jump off (3) Sandy Prince who gets a bit in his favour again here. Since running 2nd to The Garden first up, he’s bolted in twice, both on rain affected tracks. He got an easy lead last start but won well and maps nicely again.

(5) Benczkowski could be overs. The debut win was good on a soft 6, sitting on speed and kicking away. He didn’t beat much but can sit outside the leader and run a nice race.

(4) Sealion was good behind Sandy Prince and gets a small weight swing. Wouldn’t entirely shock to see him bridge the margin back.

(2) Rock Artist is a good wet tracker and gets out in trip for the first time.

Tip: (3) Sandy Prince- $3.00 at Ladbrokes

Value: (5) Benczkowski- $17.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Sandy Prince, 0.25 units E/W Benczkowski

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 1:06pm (AEDT)

Same colours/stable as Sandy Prince and again I see no reason to jump off (3) Mr Brightside. He’s gone through the grades impressively, bolting in on a soft 7 two back before winning well against Eagles Crag, who I think is Saturday class. Should sit on speed again and be hard to beat.

(15) Worsfold has been desperately unlucky his last two, the latest getting a mile out of his ground at Sandown. He gets in light but will be back and buried from barrier 3.

(4) Nikau Spur is a good wet tracker and did win well with 61kg last start in the same race as Worsfold. Drops to 56.5kg after the claim but the draw is tricky and he might be giving Mr Brightside a decent head start.

Tip: (3) Mr Brightside- $3.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Mr Brightside

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 1:41pm (AEDT)

Siding with the SA visitor (6) Taunting who has won his last two impressively on wet tracks. He easily accounted for Keep Reading last start who has won twice since and the stable have huge raps on him. He’s got a nice turn of foot and from an on speed position, that’s going to make him hard to run down.

(2) Generation stuck on okay behind Ingratiating first up which clearly reads well. The form out of that race has been a bit shaky, with General Beau and Mr Mozart disappointing in the McNeil. Wet track should be okay but the wide draw isn’t ideal.

(10) Huesca beat Construct on debut at the Kenso. Another that draws wide but can measure up.

Tip: (6) Taunting- $3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Taunting

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

Very keen to stick with (9) Degraves here. On face value he was disappointing last start at $2.50, but I’m happy to forgive. That was on a good 3, taking his unplaced record on good tracks to 4, and the other factor is they went out at a fast tempo in that race, and I think he just ran out of fitness late being two months between runs. He moved into the race like he was going to bolt in but the fitter horses were too strong. Back onto a wet track, out to 2040m, with 51kg on his back and a lovely map- he’s a great bet at the price.

I do think (11) Not Usual Glorious is a touch of overs at $18. He was disappointing in Adelaide last start but was wide without cover with 61.5kg and off 4 weeks between runs. He’s a very good wet tracker, drops 7.5kg in the weight, maps beautifully from 2 with Froggy on and can run a big race.

(8) Heart Of Puissance is a very classy horse and was scratched from Sydney last week due to an issue on race day. He’s suited on a wet track but gets blinkers off and it looks like a prep run, likely getting back in the field from barrier 9.

(4) Dark Dream can improve out in trip and did win the QLD Derby on a heavy track.

Tip: (9) Degraves- $4.40 at Sportsbet

Value: (11) Not Usual Glorious- $18.00/5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Degraves, 0.25 units E/W Not Usual Glorious

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 2:51pm (AEDT)

On weights, (3) Portland Sky would nearly be a moral. He dead heated in the Oakleigh plate last prep, absorbing a hot tempo, and then ran 2nd to Masked Crusader in the William Reid. He’s won on a soft 7 and probably doesn’t want it much wetter, but he’s trialled very well on a heavy track and with even luck is going to be hard to beat.

(8) September Run has the class, I just have no idea what to do with her. Her first up run last prep when giving Nature Strip a late scare would win this, but that was down the straight. Her run in the William Reid against the bias was excellent and probably better than Portland Sky’s, but a wet track is a query and she’ll be back in the field.

(1) The Inferno can improve lengths off the first up run and has jumped out very well since. 1000m is a query, as is a wet track.

(9) Esta La Roca is well enough found but is one of the genuine 1000m horses and a wet track isn’t a huge issue. Not sure the race she came of last start is much good but she’s consistent, will lead and is fit. I’d be shocked if she didn’t run top 3 again.

Backing Portland Sky on class, and I do think Esta La Roca will stick on for a place. September Run at 1000m around The Valley isn’t a great set up.

Tip: (3) Portland Sky- $2.90 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (9) Esta La Roca- $6.50/2.05 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Portland, 0.25/1.25 units E/W Esta La Roca

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Good race for some smart fillies. The best of the bunch could be (8) Argentia who won very well down the straight on debut, beating a couple of handy ones. She’s trialled well on a heavy track, although the stable do think she’s better on firm ground. Barrier 2 isn’t ideal.

(9) Literary Magnate bolted in on debut on a heavy track before a solid albeit distant 2nd to Financy Tycoon before a spell. She maps well and will get through the going.

(4) Mac ‘n’ Cheese is always a filly I’ve liked. 1200m will be short of her best but she is already a stakes winner on heavy ground. Watch for her late.

(3) Scorched Earth gets a beautiful map and stuck on very well first up. No idea about her on a wet track.

More of a watch race for me. If Argentia comes out and wins, good luck beating her in a Thousand Guineas.

Tip: (9) Literary Magnate- $7.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

Near impossible first edition of the Chautauqua Stakes. Going for value with (8) Great Again, who is a very good wet tracker and gets a beautiful map with one of the best front running jockeys in the game in Linda Meech. 1200m is his pet distance, and he wasn’t too bad in the Aurie’s Star on a soft 5. Gets in quite well at the weights with 55.5kg and at $20 he’s worth a small ticket.

(7) Away Game drops in weight from last start and is consistent. She’s 1/1 on heavy but draws very wide.

(6) Ancestry loves this T/D and wet ground but I have no idea where he’s at. Had every chance first up but did bounce off a poor Oakleigh Plate run last prep to bolt in at this T/D on a wet track, so he has to be considered. Prebble on is a tick.

(14) Bella Nipotina won okay last start and has been going well for the new stable.

Tip: (8) Great Again- $20.00/6.00 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (6) Ancestry- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Great Again, 0.5 units WIN Ancestry

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

Very open Feehan. Bit of a throw at the stumps but I’m putting (12) Sovereign Award on top. She’s never really a safe play given she can over race and cook herself by going too fast early, but when horse and jockey get it right she’s a good mare. She faded badly first up with a big weight, which was her first go at this T/D that wasn’t a win. She’s also proven on wet tracks, and if the track is playing on speed, which I think it will, she might just run these ragged.

(4) Superstorm is the best horse in the race but this is tricky. A wet track isn’t ideal- his run in the Golden Eagle on heavy wasn’t bad but it does appear he’s better on top of the ground. If he can settle in front of some of the stayers resuming he’ll be charging late.

(11) Elephant won well on debut in Aus. The time stacked up well with the Lawrence on the day. He’s interestingly never seen a very wet track, but has won twice on dead ground in NZ, which is somewhere between a 4-5. 

(8) Shot Of Irish will be hoping for a very heavy track. He’s going well and is at peak fitness.

Unfortunately Sovereign Award has been scratched. Siding with Elephant on top now who sits just behind Shot Of Irish, but I’m happy to just watch.

Tip: (11) Elephant- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: September 4, 2021, 5:26pm (AEDT)

(9) Toryjoy only has one option and that’s to cross and lead from out wide. She’s been racing in decent benchmark company in Sydney and going well. She’s somewhere around bm88-listed grade, with her 4th in the Scone Cup this prep reading well. Love the booking of Froggy, she likes wet ground, goes fast out in front and will be hard to catch with 54kg.

Wanted to follow (3) Skyman where he went next start after an excellent first up run, but he hasn’t been missed in the market at $3.60. The map isn’t ideal from barrier 12 and I think they have to go back. Maybe look for him next start with a better set up.

(2) Hi Stranger is flying and did beat the Heatherlie winner No Effort comfortably two back. Actually drops 1kg with Richards claiming 3, and if he can settle forward of midfield he’ll be competitive again.

(6) Winning Partner is ready to peak 3rd up with Lane going on.

Tip: (9) Toryjoy- $21.00/5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Toryjoy