Ararat Racing Tips: Sunday, November 8th

Odds Last Updated: November 9, 2020, 12:07am (AEDT)

There is a short priced favourite running in the first (7) La Isla Bonita that looks pretty likely. Her jump-outs, which included a win, have been good enough to take out a maiden field of this caliber. Given you are not getting much value, but she positions herself as an opened for any exotics you may be keen to play throughout the day. Danny O’Brien has to be one of the form stables at the moment, and with Newitt in the saddle we can expect this is more than just a warm-up. The price has even shortened this morning which is a pretty solid sign that punters are confident. Like always, you would need to be pretty bold to get too involved at the price.

Tip: (7) La Isla Bonita $1.65 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

The second race on the card has a large field. And we find another short priced favourite that looks pretty likely in (11) Fixated. The Hinchinbrook gelding is trained by Hayes & Dabernig and will be steered by John Allen. He gets a good gate and can be up on the speed in running, so the field size shouldn’t pose any issue in terms of traffic. There are a few unknowns here however, and a couple runners at odds may be worth some speculation.

(1) A Report can improve after its first-up effort, while (3) Dark Sapphire looks to bring some fitness into this first-up race.

(7) Muladaan was average first-up, but could show some sharp improvement to get into the exotics at huge odds.

Tip: (11) Fixated $2.10 Sportsbet

First four:

(11) Fixated.

(8) Ritz; (1) A Report; (3) Dark Sapphire.

(8) Ritz; (1) A Report; (3) Dark Sapphire; (4) Firestone.

(8) Ritz; (1) A Report; (3) Dark Sapphire; (4) Firestone; (7) Muladaan.

Odds Last Updated: November 9, 2020, 12:07am (AEDT)

This race we see some stayers take on the 3800 metre bm70, which will surely test them out. Some runners take on the distance for the first time, including (4) Wil John for Maher & Eustace. He has been super consistent and should be able to handle the distance. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him lead the field and attempt to grind them down.

(5) Britannicus has been in good form and comes off the back of a win in bm58 grade. Has every chance to go back-to-back.

There would be support for (1) Jukulia but he is pulling e big weight. Really can’t see anything from number 10 downwards putting in a show here.

Tip: (1) Wil John $2.50 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 9, 2020, 12:07am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: November 9, 2020, 12:07am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: November 9, 2020, 12:07am (AEDT)

The highlight of the day is the Ararat Cup. And it is a wide open race with plenty of good chances. The race is over 200 metres and we look to be running on a Soft track. (5) Portland Jimmy gets the claim of Laura Lafferty, and comes into this after winning the Avoca Cup, then placing second in the St Arnaud Cup. He has ran eight times on the Soft winning six of them – remarkable stats. So he gets a track today that is right in his sweet spot. Deserves favouritism. The distance could be one query.

Portland Jimmy was beaten in the St Arnaud Cup by (11) Wentwood, and they meet again today. On that occasion Wentwood did win by a couple of lengths, so the question is whether the result will be the same. Harry Coffey is in the saddle. Wentwood raced in a bm70 three races back, and despite an average performance behind the likes of Polanco, he then went to a bm64 placing third behind Kissinger (who went around yesterday in a much better race than this). Based on their last outing, and the company they’ve been keeping, Wentwood looks to have the slight edge (and we are getting a better price).

Also in the mix is (1) Sentimentalist and (2) Poet’s Landing, who both can easily show up in the top four. While (13) Barbie’s Boy at the price of around $51 is the one that looks to be overs.

Tip: (11) Wentwood $4.60 Bet365

Also backing: (3) Barbie’s Boy $51 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 9, 2020, 12:07am (AEDT)

For me, the Bowl looks a better race than the Cup, with a number of quality horses set to do battle over the shorter distance of 1300 metres. Pretty keen on the chances of the race favourite (3) Titan Blinders who comes into this after competing in a bm84 grade race at Moonee Valley placing second to Groundswell. Prior to that he placed behind Challiot and also Sovereign Award. Today he drops back in distance, which isn’t the worst move. Five places in as many starts this preparation, the question is whether he just finds one better on the day.

(4) Write Your Name & (2) Kazio are the clear dangers. The former has great first-up statistics and we need to assume he is going to be ready to fire. He does like the firmer footing. The latter, Kazio, has also been racing in good company, most recently coming 4^th in a small field behind Iconoclasm. Gets the Soft conditions which is a plus.

The speed map is the major contributor to how this race will play out, with (11) Gingerson, Write Your Name & Titan Blinders up leading.

Titan Blinders will have the option of dropping in behind the other two, on the outside, and is likely to get the gun run. He can pop-out when required and take the prize. He should not be finding any traffic and will have every chance. Best of the day!

Tip: (3) Titan Blinders $2.10 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 9, 2020, 12:07am (AEDT)