Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, December 12th

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(6) Seminole Brave returns from a spell here. He won his first two starts before bumping into Levitate and then failing last time we saw him. He’s trialled twice leading into his first up run tonight, the most recent of which was on Monday. He was under pressure and looked like he’d go past the ones in front but he just peaked late, so I’m hoping that trial will top him off nicely for this race.

(4) Express Time has won two of her past four starts and was only beaten a length by State Attorney and Ziebell last start. Ziebell then came out and won last start so the form has been franked. Draws perfectly in barrier 3 and that’s the horse Seminole Brave will have to get past.

(9) Megadon is flying and so is the stable. He was a touch unlucky in the Regional Championship Final two weeks ago, held up to the 100m mark before finishing hard for 3^rd. Wide draw here in 11 but looks the value at $10.

Pike goes on (3) Zetorio third up which looks a good lead.

Tip: (6) Seminole Brave $4.80 Bet365

Value: (9) Megadon $10 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Seminole Brave, 0.5 units WIN Megadon

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(7) Sheza Chalmer is my best bet of the day here. She has done nothing wrong in her first three career starts. She sat three-wide the trip on debut at Northam and still ran home well to be beaten less than a length. She then won at Bunbury, defeating Testing Love who has since come out and won, and then last start, Sheza Chalmer couldn’t have been more impressive. She settled back in the field on a day where the rail/on-speed was the place to be. She sailed down the centre of the track, defying the bias to bolt in by 2.6L. It was a win that really stamped her as a filly with some class and I believe they’ve elected to lien up here rather than go back to Bunbury for an easier race on Sunday. Think she’s a very talented filly and should notch up her third win a row here.

(4) Chili Is Hot comes into this undefeated from her two starts back in August. That’s off-season form and she meets a very handy field first up here but both of her wins were quite impressive and I wouldn’t be underestimating her at double figure odds.

(8) Toscana won her first two starts down south but proved she’s up to the grade with a good effort behind Madam Torio last start. Up to 1200m now and she’ll be right thereabouts.

(9) Smashing drops in class and draws the inside gate.

Tip: (7) Sheza Chalmer $2.30 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 4 units WIN Sheza Chalmer

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Pretty happy to be against (2) Condor Heroes here. He ran well first up when he split Long Beach and This’ll Testya but the form out of that has been very ordinary and so has Condor Heroes, even though he’s been racing in harder grade. He drops back from Group 1 company to a 78+ but I’m still happy to oppose him.

(8) Ziebell has bounced back to form in recent starts and his trainer was saying post-race last week that this is the best he’s had him in a while. He comes here on the quick back up and I don’t see any reason why he can’t be very competitive again. Condor Heroes will obviously challenge him for the lead but even if he has to sit outside him, so long as he’s rolling along, I think he can win again.

(1) Don’t Fuss drops back to the 1000m and gets Pike on board so has to be rated a chance in this. He’s had seven goes at the track and distance though and is yet to win one.

(4) Echo Effect has had a stable change and might be one to include.

Tip: (8) Ziebell $5.50 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Ziebell

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Very open race this. (2) Mr Kunafa is my best value bet of the day at upwards of $21. He completely bombed the start first up, tailing the field by 5L early. He was only beaten 5.7L and that was over 1200m which is a distance way short of his best. They’ve removed the blinkers today and he steps up to 1600m, which should suit him much better. Whether he’s fit and ready second up from a fairly long spell is the query, and he obviously needs to jump better, but he’s got a bit of talent given he won five races in his first prep, and we’re getting a good price to find out where he’s at today.

Michael lane has (4) Phoneme flying. He won two on the bounce before a luckless run behind Red Publisher tow starts back. He then ran 3^rd to Mr Delegator and Bragwell last weekend. Draws softly in barrier 2 and looks hard to beat.

(5) The Fugazi found his right race last start but just found one better on the day. Up to the mile now which is some query but he draws well and should be thereabouts.

(1) Kelly’s Callisto drops in class and won over this track and distance in this grade four starts ago.

Tip: (2) Mr Kunafa $21 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Mr Kunafa

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

1800m is going to be a query here but (6) Em Tee Aye brings a very good form line through the WA Guineas here, where he split Watch Me Dance and Dom To Shoot. The latter then ran 3^rd in last weekend’s Kingston Town Classic, so that form looks pretty good for a 72+ here. He’ll be right up on speed and should give a good sight with Chris Parnham booked to ride.

(3) Tollman is absolutely flying. I was keen on him last start and he delivered with another strong win. He steps up to 1800m which is a small query as he ran 4^th as favourite last prep when he ran over the distance, but he’s returned in better form this prep and maps to get an identical run to what he’s had in both wins this prep. Should be right in the finish and appears hard to beat again.

(9) Saucy Jack and (7) Juicing Carrots both aren’t hopeless at more than $20.

Tip: (6) Em Tee Aye $3.90 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Em Tee Aye, 0.5 units WIN Tollman

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The change of tactics proved the winning formula for (2) Resortman last start and I expect him to win again today. They rode him negatively from the wide gate first up over 1000m and he was never in the race, but they went back to putting him on speed last start when he got back up to 1200m and he was far too good for them. Drops back to 1100m today which isn’t ideal, but he should land right up there from barrier 3 and he looks the best horse in the race.

(1) Missing Pro won as easy as you like first up at Bunbury, leading all the way to score by 3.8L. She might come across and sit outside Resortman and she has three wins from four starts at the distance. She looks the only danger to the favourite, in my opinion.

(6) Platinum Bullet ran 2^nd to Resortman first up, coming from well back in the field to be beaten 1.25L. Chris Parnham jumps off and gets on Resortman, so she gets a negative jockey switch, and the step back to 1100m probably suits her even less than it does Resortman. She’ll rocket home but might just come up short again.

(8) Downforce is back as a gelding.

Tip: (2) Resortman $2.25 Sportsbetting

Danger: (1) Missing Pro $6.10 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 3.25 units WIN Resortman, 0.75 units WIN Missing Pro

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

(1) Come Right Back is due to win again soon but he gets Carleen Hefel on board from barrier 11 over 2100m, which is a massive query. He hasn’t had much luck in recent starts, caught wide mid-race two starts back before being held up to the 200m mark last time out. The form out of those races has been strong though and with any luck at all, he should be right in the finish.

(3) Aragain was a bit plain last start but gets the blinkers on again and I expect a more aggressive ride from the apprentice, as that’s how she races best. She can run a race.

Pike goes on (4) Sugar Cain, which really catches the eye given she’s been ridden by apprentices her past three starts. Has to be rated highly here.

(10) Casa Rosada next best.

Tip: (1) Come Right Back $5.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Come Right Back

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

I think (9) Midnight Blue is just about a good thing here. She’s absolutely flying this prep. She won two on the bounce before Adornment turned the tables on her last start, but Carleen Hefel rode her on that occasion, while Pike rode Adornment. She stormed home from the back of the field to be beaten a lip. Pike gets back aboard Midnight Blue today and jumps off Royal Command to do so, who he partnered to victory last start, so that’s a big lead. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 9 but I’m super keen on her today and think she gets the job done.

With Midnight Blue unfortunately scratched this morning, it makes the race a bit more tricky. I was much more confident taking $2.75 for Midnight Blue than I am taking $2.30 for (3) Royal Command with Midnight Blue out of the race. I think Royal Command goes on top but I don’t have the same level of confidence. He appreciated the step up in distance last start and won fairly comfortably, so with this being just his fourth run for the campaign, you’d think he’s still open to improvement. That makes him hard to beat.

(2) Neufbosc was outclassed in WFA Group 1 company last start but should be much better suited heavily back in grade today and up to 2200m. He comes here on the quick back up and his form behind Inspirational Girl earlier in the prep looks red hot now. Gets his chance to win again and at $8.50 with Midnight Blue out, he looks a bit of value.

(10) Money Maher next best, while (1) Trap For Fools might just need one more run.

Tip: (3) Royal Command $2.30 TAB

Value: (2) Neufbosc $8.50 TopSport

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Royal Command, 0.5 units WIN Neufbosc

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Very tough way to finish. (2) Glamour Packed comes up favourite but I’m reluctant to dive into him at around $4.00. he got absolutely everything in his favour last start when he won by half-a-length. It was a terrific ride by Jordan Turner, but all the cards fell in his favour.

(6) Island Missile is one I was keen on last start but he was a bit plain, unlike the start prior to that. He gets Clint Johnston-Porter back aboard today and draws well so if he can bounce back.

(9) What About Moses is undefeated this prep after winning the Albany heat of the Regional Championships, followed by the Final. Has a fairly poor third up record and gets a negative jockey change today, but isn’t hopeless on what he’s done this prep.

(10) She’s Got Merit has improved significantly in her past two starts, winning well at Geraldton and then again at Ascot last start. She stays at the same track and distance and this stable is flying, so she’s a chance again at each way odds.

(14) Wakan Tanka opened $26 and is already into $10. This happens with him every start and it genuinely wouldn’t surprise me to see him start $5.00. He should go forward from 13 and run well again.

Tip: (10) She’s Got Merit $11.20 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN She’s Got Merit