Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, December 12th

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Most of these are on debut, and down the straight it could get a bit messy. (7) Ranveer has been well backed early. He was down to run in the Clockwise Classic at Ballarat before being scratched, and he was well backed there too. He’s probably short enough now at $2.50 but does look talented.

 

(1) The Art Of Flying hasn’t done much wrong in two career starts, running 2^nd to Sneaky Five and then 3^rd to Anamoe and Forbes, which is probably the best Melbourne 2yo form at the moment. He has to carry 61kg here and was well beaten last start but will run well again.

 

They look the two, but there’s not much meat on the bone for either at the current prices. If Ranveer gets out to the $3.50 range I’d be happy to play, but until then I’d rather just watch.

 

Tip: (7) Ranveer $2.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

In an open race, there are a couple that make appeal. I’ll start with the topweight (1) Free To Move. I think he brings the best form into the race, coming off a 3^rd placing behind Ocean Beyond and Deep Speed. In a sit and sprint, he was off the bit early but kept coming, running the 2^nd fastest late splits of the race behind the winner. I think he’s looking for 1400m now, and from barrier 1 Kah can position handy, ideally leader’s back and pick the gaps as they come.

 

Free To Move’s run was much better than (3) Ilovethegame in my opinion, and despite the 1.5kg weight swing I can’t work out why Ilovethegame is the favourite here.

 

(6) Still Be Friends is the other that appeals, with a different platform. He drops back from the 1600m, where he was very well backed but couldn’t match motors with Seb Song, who looks to be quite talented. Getting to Flemington should suit, and I don’t mind the drop back to 1400m either.

 

Tip: (1) Free To Move $5.50 TopSport

Value: (6) Still Be Friends $7.50 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Free To Move, 0.5 units WIN Still Be Friends

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Think there’s a couple of good bets here. One of the equal favourites, (4) Coolth should be the clear market pick in my opinion. I think he’s the best horse in the race and ran some very good races last prep in the 3yo staying series, including a couple of very strong 3rds to Persan. He returned over 1600m at The Valley and ran well, coming from off midfield to run 4^th, beaten 3.6L in an on pace dominated race. With added fitness and drawn barrier one, I think he can settle midfield and be strong late.

 

Also lining up in a few of those 3yo races was (5) Independent Road. Coolth definitely had his measure, but he was around the mark and ran well without winning. The key for him here is being 3^rd up- he should be close to peaking here and his two runs this prep have both been strong over 1300m and 1500m. The step up in trip definitely suits, and he ran 2^nd at his only start at the T/D.

 

Also in that Flemington race was (7) Highland Jakk, who was well beaten. His form in that series was very similar to Independent Road, and I don’t think there’s much between them. Highland Jakk was excellent first up over 1300m when running 2^nd, but I think Independent Road might have the better platform and fitness here, at a longer price too.

 

(3) Chief Altony was given an absolute peach by Olly last start to win after being backed off the map. I’m not sure that’s the right form here and I can’t have him as short as Coolth in the market.

 

Tip: (4) Coolth $3.50 Sportsbet

Value: (5) Independent Road $14 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Coolth, 1 unit WIN Independent Road

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Can make a case for a few here, but I’ve gone with (6) Reflect The Stars. He was only 3^rd up last start but it was an enormous run, getting a long way back at Ballarat and rattling home to miss Blandford Lad, whom he beat the start prior. He draws much better in barrier 5 here which should see him settle midfield rather than last, and Olly replaces Allen.

 

(5) Tralee Rose is the interesting one. She’s a classy staying mare and has won 3 straight this prep. I loved her win last start- the margin was only narrow, but she box seated and was left in front the whole straight but wouldn’t lie down. The 2^nd horse there, Influential Girl, came out and won at The Valley last week. The query for Tralee Rose has to be the big jump in trip. She goes from 1800m up to 2530m, and whilst she looks like she’ll get there in time, I’m not sure she’s got the right platform to do so. Her one attempt at this distance range was a solid 4^th, beaten 4.8L in an SA Classic behind Realm Of Flowers which is pretty good form. I think she’ll be ridden a bit colder than last start and Kersley will need to give her a good ride from barrier 2.

 

(4) Miyake brings the Sydney form. He was a strong winner over 2400m at Warwick Farm last start after being backed into $1.75. The 2^nd horse there, Perfect Illusion, failed on Wednesday but did have excuses after being galloped on.

 

Tip: (6) Reflect The Stars $5.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Reflect The Stars

 

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is a hot race over 1000m. (2) Fabergino is the current favourite but has drifted a bit early. She finished last in the VRC Sprint last start, with a fast 1200m at that level definitely seeing her out. Her run prior in the Caulfield Sprint was outstanding, conceding Graff 1kg and running 2^nd on a soft track. Her only Melbourne win came at this T/D earlier in the year, where she was simply too fast for a decent field. The 5 weeks between runs will help, it’s just whether she’s really freshened up enough. The 61.5kg is a bit of a worry too.

 

(1) Prezado is the T/D specialist. His record is quite astounding, with 5 wins and a second from 9 starts over the short course, especially considering he only has 6 career wins from 30 starts. His run first up was very good at The Valley and it’s a huge advantage getting back to Flemington.

 

The horse that beat him there is (4) Grandview Avenue, who was a dominant winner and is absolutely airborne. He meets Prezado 4.5kg better at the weights for beating him home by 3.3L, but his run down the straight was his worst this prep, and his one other attempt last year was awful.

 

(5) Shamino is the other winning hope. Funnily enough, he has the exact same record at 1000m as Prezado does at the Flemington 1000m- 9: 5-1-0. He’s got a very sharp turn of foot so if he’s close enough inside the final 200m he’ll be hard to hold out.

 

This is a great race, and you could confidently find any of those 4 horses, but I’m going with Fabergino. She races very well fresh, and the 5 weeks off here is the longest gap she’s had between runs this prep. If she runs up to her Caulfield Sprint effort, where she comfortably beat Shamino (whom she meets 1.5kg better here), I think she’ll win.

 

Tip: (2) Fabergino $4.00 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Fabergino

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

In an open race I’m going to stick with (11) Excelida. She was one of the runs of the day at Ballarat, coming from an impossible position to rocket home into a clear 2^nd. Her last 600, 400 and 200m were the fastest of the meeting behind Snapdancer, and I think the straight will suit. I’d have preferred her to step up to 1400m, but drawn midfield, Olly shouldn’t need to get so far back and try to follow something into the race.

 

(14) Tan Tat Harmony is 3/3 at the 1200m and racing very well. She’s definitely not hopeless here back up in trip.

 

(10) Aten is a handy horse from the McEvoy stable and was an easy winner first up.

 

Tip: (11) Excelida $5.50 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Excelida

 

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The more I look at this race, the harder I find (1) Bandersnatch to beat. His win first up was excellent at The Valley, coming from near last to get up on the line in a fairly strong race over 1200m. He mixed his form a bit last prep, but his run over 1400m behind Phaistos would make him near unbeatable here. The tactics will be interesting, because he used to race right on speed, often leading, but they rode him cold from barrier 8 of 12 last start. Drawn 1 here, I doubt they want to be last on the rail, so expect him to position 3 back the fence. From all reports he had plenty of improvement to come first up, and with even luck and natural improvement he’ll be very hard to beat again.

 

(4) I Am Vinnie was a strong run behind Titan Blinders last start when making decent ground against the pattern. He’d done nothing in two runs earlier this prep, so it’ll be interesting to see if that was an anomaly.

 

Tip: (1) Bandersnatch $3.60 Pointsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Bandersnatch

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(11) Somerset Maugham comes out of a decent 2000m race won by Barade, who came out and ran 2^nd and beat a few of these at The Valley. They went out very hard in the Flemington race, and Somerset Maugham sat 3^rd and basically led the rest of the field, only getting swamped late and finishing 5^th, beaten 1.8L. He drops back to 1800m here which I think is fine, and he maps just off the speed from barrier 7.

 

(16) Caffrey is racing well and had to carry 5kg more than the winner last start. The big query is a strong 1800m for him because he hasn’t raced past a mile before.

 

(14) Starouz is on the 7 day backup from Pakenham and maps to do no work from barrier 2.

 

You could make a case for most of these, but I think the Barade form line is quite strong, and I like the set up here for Somerset Maugham.

 

Tip: (11) Somerset Maugham $6.50 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Somerset Maugham

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Drawn the outside, I think (16) Standoff will give us a good run for our money in the last. She was a solid 2yo, running a good 3^rd in the Next Gen final behind Sense of Honour and Savannah Cloud. She had a break and returned in the Listed Cap D’Antibes and was completely outclassed by Coolmore winner September Run. She had another 10 weeks off and ran in the MM Classic at Ballarat, and I thought she was a huge run behind Sisstar and The Astrologist. She settled last from a wide gate, made her run to the inside of The Astrologist and was finishing just as well as that horse but copped a squeeze and baulked at the 100m mark. Her last 400m was the fastest of the race, and her last 200m was the 2^nd fastest when not ridden out. Back down the straight should suit, barrier 16 should mean she can let rip down the outside, and although she’s not particularly well weighted, I think she brings the best form here.

 

The other horse I want to spec is (7) Uptown Lola simply because she’s a mare in scintillating form. She was the only leader to win all day on Kyneton Cup day and backed it up with another win at Warnambool. This is a much tougher race, but $34 for a mare that’s won her last three seems value.

 

(4) Kalkarni Royale keeps racing well and gets Kah on which is a positive. The step up to 1100m will also suit, although the straight track might not be her go.

 

(8) Paul’s Regret was an easy winner first up and has form around Kalkarni Royale last prep.

 

Tip: (16) Standoff $12 Sportsbet

Value: (7) Uptown Lola $34 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Standoff, 0.25 units WIN Uptown Lola