Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, March 27th

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

We kick things off with a 2200m race which I have no interest in. (4) Marocchino has just two wins from 20 career starts but he gets Pike on today and comes off a sound effort behind smart filly Temptacion. I wouldn’t be taking even money about him but he goes on top.

(6) Unreliable has struck form, bolting in last stat over this track and distance, which followed a good win at Pinjarra. Looks the horse on the up and gets in with just 51kg after the claim for Kristy Bennett.

(1) Summer’s Idol comes off a win in Listed grade and has to lump 60kg after the claim of Laqdar Ramoly. Is the class horse of the field but the weight might prove too great.

Tip: (4) Marocchino $2.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

$6.00 about (4) Prized Nemesis isn’t a bad bet here. He’s only won the one race from 23 starts which is the big negative, but he’s been good in four starts for Anne King. He came out of a few decent races last prep and was sound when 2^nd at his first run back from a nine-week break. If he’s within range at the turn, he can be very competitive.

(3) Carabinier has won his past two first up runs. Last prep he saluted in a similar race to this. He has a good record at the distance and should race well.

(1) Lonsdale Lady makes plenty of appeal with two wins from four starts. Both of those wins came at this track. He should lead and be hard to run down, especially early in the day.

(5) Uncanny Timing gets the blinkers back on third up from a spell and can improve.

Tip: (4) Prized Nemesis $6.00 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (3) Carabinier $4.85 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Prized Nemesis, 0.75 units WIN Carabinier

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

The market has done a complete flip here but I’m ignoring that and sticking with (5) Sockoff here, and I’m pretty keen too. She has been electric in two trials leading into this, winning both. The first was over 400m and the second was over 1000m down the straight. The horse she beat in that latest trial was Plemont, who then came out and ran 2^nd on debut to Flying Missile on Wednesday. Sockoff had her covered easily in the trial, so I really expect her to give this a big shake today.

(6) Shezaclassychix gets the interesting booking of William Pike for David Harrison. He’s only had one ride for him in the past 12 months and it was a win. The filly was held up the majority of the straight on debut and pulled up lame. Pike goes on and she can improve sharply.

(4) Queen’s Gift finished 2^nd behind Pat’s Got Sass, who is probably favourite for the Karrakatta. She drew 10 on that occasion and draws 1 today, so it would be no surprise to see her sit closer and win.

(3) Story Brook was very good on debut but was never a factor in the Gimcrack last weekend. On the quick backup here and Kristy Bennet goes back on. This is an easier race for sure and the market has really gravitated towards her since opening.

Tip: (5) Sockoff $4.80 TAB

Value: (6) Shezaclassychix $12 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Sockoff, 0.5 units WIN Shezaclassychix

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

Only six to go around in the Melvista Stakes, where (1) Western Empire will be winning unless something goes seriously wrong.

Tip: (1) Western Empire $1.22 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 5:56pm (AEDT)

(2) Miss Marietta gets an awkward draw today but she’s racing in great form and has given me no reason to jump off her today. She bolted in two starts ago at Pinjarra and then backed it up with a win here at Ascot. She’s drawn barriers 1 and 2 in her two wins, so barrier 10 is a tricky one today, but I’ll stick with her with $5.00 available.

(6) Sluice Box doesn’t win out of turn but he was $13 into $5.50 when 3^rd to Miss Marietta last start. Third up now, he will definitely be ready to go and looks a chance once again.

(4) Eurasia won well last start and has to be included again.

Tip: (2) Miss Marietta $5.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Miss Marietta

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 6:31pm (AEDT)

This is a terrific race with several chances! Could be backing four horses at the odds here.

(1) Downforce has been flying of late and drops back to a One Metro Win race after running 3^rd to Lorentinio and Resortman in a 72+. Prior to that he won a Class 3 easily. Interestingly, he’s had five weeks between runs, so I’m not sure if there has been an issue, if they’ve chosen to freshen him up or if there just hasn’t been any races for him. He draws a touch awkward but on current form he’s the one to beat.

(2) Tinsnip bounced back to winning ways last start and can go on with it third up now. He showed plenty of talent as a juvenile but went off the boil last prep. Back in form this time in and should be right in the mix.

(10) Bragwell was beaten as a $1.50 favourite first up at Mount Barket, but did it tough having to sit wide throughout. He’s got some ability and won’t look out of place.

(11) Katona is absolutely flying. He steps up in grade today and Clint Johnston-Porter chooses to stick with Tinsnip, so Patrick Carbery jumps on. He’s been flying home from back in the field and although up in grade, I think he can run a big race.

(13) Dipara loves this track and distance and probably should have on last start.

Tricky race but will be trying to back Downforce, Tinsnip, Katona and Dipara at longer odds.

Tip: (1) Downforce $6.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (2) Tinsnip $5.50 Bet365

Value: (11) Katona $16 Sportsbet & (13) Dipara $19 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Downforce, 1 unit WIN Tinsnip, 0.5 units WIN Katona, 0.5 units WIN Dipara

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 7:11pm (AEDT)

(10) Amasenus hasn’t put a foot wrong this prep. She should have won first up but was nearly put through the rail half way down the straight. She then came out and won her next two. She now steps up to 1200m for the first time this prep and I don’t see that being much of a problem. The stable is flying and so long as she gets a good run from barrier 7, she’ll be hard to beat again.

(7) Grand Design is value at double figure odds. She won two starts ago, beating Bosnipp who then came out and won. She then ran 2^nd to Universal Pleasure who has now won four straight. Senior rider back on today, can be very competitive.

(1) Some Sort might just need the run first up, though he did win first up last prep in Kalgoorlie off just one trial. He carried 54kg in that race but carries 59kg today, so it’s a tougher assignment, but he’s a good horse on his day. Draws well and can go close.

(5) Mood Swings next best.

Tip: (10) Amasenus $3.20 Ladbrokes

Value: (7) Grand Design $10 Sportsbet

Saver: (1) Some Sort $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Amasenus, 0.5 units WIN Grand Design, 0.5 units WIN Some Sort

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 7:46pm (AEDT)

The WA Oaks is the feature race of the day at Ascot. This race has thrown up a few strange results over the years.

(3) Pure Devotion has really begun to hit her straps in her past two starts, running home well in the 1000 Guineas two starts back before flying home in the Natasha Stakes last start. She gets the huge jockey change of Pike replacing Kyra Yuill and also gets the winkers on for the first time. Based on her last-start effort, she appears the one to beat.

(2) Reliable Star ran 3^rd in that race. She ran three weeks in a row and Pat Carbery reported she was just a bit dour, but thought she would be hard to beat in the Oaks with two weeks between runs. She draws awkwardly and is likely to be back in the field, but she’s not hopeless of knocking off her more favoured stablemate.

(4) Temptacion is the horse with the different form line in the race, coming out of a no-metro-wins race. She couldn’t have been more impressive in her past two wins. The query is the step up from 1800m to 2400m, but she’s improving with each run and it seems the extra ground will suit her.

Tip: (3) Pure Devotion $2.00 Ladbrokes

Saver: (2) Reliable Star $7.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Pure Devotion, 0.25 units WIN Reliable Star

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 8:21pm (AEDT)

(11) Miss Conteki was the most impressive winner of the day at Ascot when she resumed two-and-a-half weeks ago. It was her first run back from a 43-week spell and she jumped out of the round with a lethal turn of foot to score easily over this distance. That took her record to four wins from five starts and she certainly looks to have a very bright future. She draws barrier 1 today so should be able to box seat and with any luck, she looks the winner. There is $1.79 available on Betfair which looks a very reasonable price to me (comes down to about $1.65 after commission). If she gets anywhere near $2.00, have more on.

(6) River Beau won well for us two weeks ago over track and distance. He has a good third up record with three 2nds from as many starts. He did have the race work out absolutely perfectly for him last start, but with barrier 10 today it might not be as simple. He looks to have bumped into a potential star too.

(7) State Attorney can measure up here if he’s at his best but there’s two sides to him and it’s hard to know which one will show up.

Tip: (11) Miss Conteki $1.79 Betfair

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Miss Conteki