Doomben Racing Tips: Saturday, March 27th

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

 

Going to stick with the favourite in the opener at Doomben, as I think her draw will pay the dividends in the end. (6) Stellar Magic returned a fortnight ago in impressive style at Grafton, leading much of the way to salute by just over 2.5 lengths. That win will give her a lot of confidence stepping up to Saturday grade, especially since the race rated well with plenty of pace throughout the race. She will get an easy lead with no speed engaged and she will hold that position on the rail for the entirety.

(9) Imadgic is one I want to keep an eye on after a decent trial. Had she drawn a gate, I think she would have been shorter in the market and a potential winning chance. I will be watching for her late.

(5) Startantes ran some impressive sectionals last start but she will have a task due to her draw, mainly because of her racing pattern. She should handle the going and if another jockey puts more speed into the race, she comes right into this.

Tip: (6) Stellar Magic $3.00

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Stellar Magic FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

 

These races in Queensland always give me a headache, pretty much anything 2000m+.

(6) Dalmatia Prince goes on top at an each way quote where I think he can run a bold race. He hasn’t been that far away over his past two runs, finishing 0.1 of a length at Canterbury behind Mars over the 1900m before heading to Randwick-Kensington and running half a length fourth to Joigny. He handles the wet well which will come in handy, and he will be in a forward position which is always beneficial at Doomben. He also drops 2.5kg in weight and will carry the lowest weight he has carried since August 2018! A win here will not surprise me.

(4) Humbolt Current drops 5kg from his last run and a 2.5kg swing on his rival and last start winner Romakash. He will appreciate the track gradually drying out as his wet track stats are quite poor. The drop back to 2000m is a plus and he should get the gun run from the inside barrier. Deserved favourite but under the odds.

(2) Romakash is in tremendous form and I expect him to be in the finish once again.

Tip: (6) Dalmatia Prince $9.60/$3.65

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

 

This looks another messy race to dissect with many poor formlines meeting in one.

(3) Take Tea goes on top for me here who raced below expectations last start at the Gold Coast. The daughter of Testa Rossa went backwards around the turn and ended up finishing 8 lengths back in last position. Before that, she was an impressive winner at Eagle Farm on top of the ground, winning in the shadows of the post. I am willing to put a line through Gold Coast form and concentrate on her starts prior and apart from that run, her wet track form was pretty good. The draw isn’t ideal, so it is going to take a good ride from Andrew Mallyon to get her into a winning chance.

(7) Guise was disappointing last start at Eagle Farm after not showing much when being asked late in the race. Before that she had the flashing light on her, flying from last to finish within a length in third. Maybe she is looking for the sting out of the ground again though back to a mile is a query.

(2) Seeingisbelieving to improve despite connections saying it was ‘too wet’ on a soft 5 at the end of last preparation.

Tip: (3) Take Tea $7.00/$2.20

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

 

I don’t mind (5) Tara Jasmine once again on the back of a solid race behind Georgie’s Pride. To the eye Georgie’s Pride set a fast pace out in front but in fact the pace was very slow, and she got some easy sectionals which didn’t help our girl over the closing stages. Before that she qualified for the Country Championships final at Coffs Harbour, hitting the line with the eventual winner Baileys, who has since performed well here in Brisbane. She gets in very light here with the 3kg claim of Leah Kilner and although the barrier is a touch awkward, the speed is drawn closer to the rail, so she should be able to get across nicely from the 1350m start. I expect her to be in the finish.

(2) Rollinwiththeflow ran above expectations at the Gold Coast in a much harder race and drops back in grade here. There isn’t a lot of speed, so he should be able to kick up and be in a prominent position throughout. I am not concerned with the track conditions and if his last run didn’t take too much out of him, I expect him go very close to winning.

(8) Hot Escort and (3) Bundyandcoke will round out the best of the rest.

Tip: (5) Tara Jasmine $4.55

Value: (2) Rollinwiththeflow $9.00/$2.88

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Tara Jasmine FIXED, 0.5 unit WIN/1 unit PLACE Rollinwiththeflow FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

 

(1) Vanna Girl will go on top for me here, providing she runs on the heavy going this weekend. She was entered for two races at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago, but she was wisely scratched from both. She has had no public trials so there is a question mark over her fitness, but with solid early market support, she could be ready to make an impact first-up. She is the best horse in this race and if she can handle the going, she shouldn’t be too far away.

(3) Wrens Day is in terrific form but his form over rain affected tracks is less than desirable. If you combine that with his racing style, he is definitely under the odds. Maybe he will perform better on the going in this weaker grade, but until he does it, I can’t have him.

(4) Cloak looks the best of the rest.

Tip: (1) Vanna Girl $2.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 4:03pm (AEDT)

 

(14) Weona Smartone is a smart one as he returns to racing for the first time since September. Last preparation, he justified his short quote by making a mockery of his opposition at the Sunshine Coast, winning by over 4.5 lengths on very soft going. He backed that performance up a fortnight later over the same track and distance, this time on top of the ground, winning by 2.5 lengths. He has since had the one trial where he wasn’t given a hard time but still managed to win the trial by almost 2 lengths. He is drawn ideally to go to the front, handles the sting out of the ground and I expect him to start this preparation off with a bang.

(12) The Move returned three weeks ago and had plenty of excuses when running fourth as favourite. He slipped at the start and lost ground before racing three wide for the rest of the race. I think we need to see him again on a heavy going to completely rule it out, but if he handles it, watch out.

(6) Leadership Spill is drawn ideally and will likely put pressure on the favourite if he can.

Tip: (14) Weona Smartone $2.15

Also Backing: (12) The Move $6.00

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Weona Smartone FIXED, 1 unit WIN The Move FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

 

I don’t mind (11) Explosive Quality as each way odds. She is returning on the back of two solid trials which were both over 1000m, so she should be very forward for this race. She generally comes to hand quite quickly anyway, so this only enhances her chances here. The Shooting To Win mare was solid all of last preparation, finishing no further back then fourth in all four runs. I expect her to sit in a handy position from the draw and to run a solid race.

(6) Snitzari ran on a bottomless Doomben track 10 days ago and was too good for her rivals. She handles the going with no issues and is drawn to get a nice run throughout. This is a lot harder, and she is yet to win on a Saturday in Queensland.

(12) Front Money is one I am very keen on seeing for her new stable after spending her career with Team Hawkes. She does handle the wet and generally comes to hand quickly. She has to contend with a poor draw, so she will need luck.

Tip: (11) Explosive Quality $9.00/$3.10

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

 

I am going with (7) Toorooloo here who is going to have fitness on her side as she looks to make it back-to-back wins. She was due to run at the Gold Coast last start but drew barrier 17 so she ended up scratching hence the gap between runs, though she does race well fresh so it shouldn’t be a concern. Before that she started from barrier 7 and showed some nice gate speed to get across to lead and from there she never got passed, winning by just under a length. I think it is a smart move dropping her back 200m due to the freshen up and I expect her to start well and lead whilst holding the rails. She should be hard to beat.

(1) Zingalong has to deal with a poor draw but if he can, he is a big chance based on his last two runs. He ran well in the Jewel Prelude at the Sunshine Coast before running second in the 3-year-old Jewel itself at the Gold Coast. This could be a tough task with 59kg.

(12) Excel In The Sun is unlikely to head here but if she does, I don’t want to leave her out of my numbers. She was impressive in her lone run in her career, but the draw here makes her task very hard, especially back to 1000m.

Tip: (7) Toorooloo $4.50

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Toorooloo FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 6:01pm (AEDT)

 

I think (6) Lashes gets in here unbelievably well even though she is yet to salute at 1200m in three attempts. She has been scratched from the Birthday Card Stakes for this, so they must have some confidence to send her up here. She was no match for her rivals up the Flemington straight in the Bob Hoysted last start and before that she was fourth in the Group 3 Bellmaine Stakes at Caulfield behind Probabeel. This is a big step back in grade and she will only have to carry 55.5kg from a decent draw on ground she excels in. I will be surprised if she doesn’t win this.

(3) Hold The Line was beaten as favourite last start at the Gold Coast by Buckin’ Beauty and finds a very winnable race here. She should be able to sit right on the leader’s back before making her move in the straight. She won’t mind these conditions and she shouldn’t be too far away.

(2) Royal Hale looks the best of the rest.

Tip: (6) Lashes $4.25

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lashes FIXED