Bendigo Racing Tips: Saturday, March 27th

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 12:16pm (AEDT)

Tricky race to kick us off. I’ve no doubt (2) Tavidance is the best horse in the race, even at 1400m. He was beaten 8.6L first up at 1400m last prep but he was the sickest watch maybe ever, simply never once getting out. The query is one of his regular riders J Kah is with the favourite, and Riordan will claim 2kg from a wide barrier. He loves wet ground so if we are still in the soft range, he might be too good regardless.

 

(8) Second Slip is the favourite with Kah on and will be hard to beat. He’s absolutely flying, my one knock would be up to 1400m. He did win over 1300m earlier this prep, but it was an on pace race with minimal chasers, and he will have to work a touch early.

 

(3) Groundswell looks the only other chance in the market. He was okay first up in an unsuitable straight 1200m. He won nicely 2^nd up last prep and will probably hold the front from barrier 1.

 

Tricky to bet early here. If Tavidance is firm and the track is still soft I probably will play him so hopefully we get Mick Price’s thoughts pre-race.

 

Tip: (2) Tavidance- $3.60 at Bet365

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

(2) Simply Optimistic on top. He’s 3/6 when first up and is coming off his best prep where he went through the grades nicely. This track should be around the 5/6 range which will be fine, he maps nicely from barrier 5 and beat better horses last prep e.g. Express Pass than he meets here. The jumpout was good behind some group sprinters, he trucked through the line under a tight hold and will be hard to beat.

 

(8) Rock Prophet is the danger. He’s never missed the quinella first up and did run very well behind some quality horses last prep. Barrier 2 is sticky, but he gets in with 54kg and looks the saver.

 

(5) Street Icon finished last behind Ancestry last start on a day that you couldn’t make ground. How far back she gets here is the question again, but her run two back behind Subedar was good.

 

Simply Optimistic is a great price at $3.80, happy to have a good bet at him and something small on Rock Prophet to record a small profit.

 

Tip: (2) Simply Optimistic- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Saver: (8) Rock Prophet- $6.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Simply Optimistic, 0.5 units WIN Rock Prophet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 1:31pm (AEDT)

The gap between the favourite and (1) Gulf Of Suez looks too great in my opinion. I think he’s a bit of the forgotten horse coming off a let up. He was off a similar break in the Blue Diamond Preview where he was beaten 1.5L by General Beau and raced about 5 wide the trip. He was disappointing down the straight over 1100m but looks better suited around a bend from a nice barrier, and he did start $5 there against Ingratiating.

 

(3) Starry Legend couldn’t have been more impressive on debut, leading all the way at Sandown. The form out of that race has been awful despite the times stacking up well. A bigger field with more pressure and better chasers is a different scenario.

 

(7) Matao Ma gets Kah on debut for the Price yard and has jumped out nicely, putting a gap on them despite being ridden out.

 

(2) Frostin’ has raced here twice which could be beneficial. He ran 2^nd to Tycoon Humma who has won again since at this T/D two starts ago and backed it up with a dominant win over 1100m here last start. Goes Allen to Jack Hill and draws barrier 16 which will make things very difficult.

 

Tip: (1) Gulf Of Suez- $5.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Gulf Of Suez

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

(4) Fanciful Toff looks incredibly hard to beat. I was quite keen on him ASM day and the punters agreed because he was off the map late and should’ve won. Teo handed up from barrier 1, ended up with nowhere to go and he only got to build momentum the last 100m, missing by a nose. He meets the winner 1kg better at the weights, even after Kah replaces Teo (effectively a 2.5kg turnaround) and from barrier 5 it’s hard to see him getting beat.

 

(7) Playoffs beat him last start but as I said, Fanciful Toff should’ve won and gets a much better set up here. The fact that Maher/Eustace have put Kah on Fanciful Toff and Ben Allen on Playoffs speaks volumes too.

 

(6) Saracen Knight is the interesting runner. He was absolutely deplorable in the Wangaratta Cup first up when $2.50 favourite, settling back and doing nothing, beaten 13L. He’s the best horse in this race off what he did last prep and some more give in the ground will help. His win 2^nd up last prep was enormous over Irish Flame and given his last three SP’s have been $2.50, $5.50 (g3 Bendigo Cup at this T/D) and $2.05, you can make a case he’s overs if you just wipe his run first up.

 

(5) Naval Warfare can improve 3^rd up but has been below his best for a while and would want a drying surface.

 

Having a crack at Fanciful Toff- we should be repaid for last start with even luck and saving on Saracen Knight simply because he’s the best horse in the race at $9.50.

Tip: (4) Fanciful Toff- $2.45 at Bet365

Saver: (6) Saracen Knight- $9.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3.5 units WIN Fanciful Toff, 0.5 units WIN Saracen Knight

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 2:51pm (AEDT)

(5) Need New Friends is easily the horse to beat coming off a 0.4L 2^nd to Chaillot. She was given a beautiful ride by D Lane there who sticks and along with J Kah is the best jockey at the meeting. The run prior at Caulfield when wide was very good, and the map is just beautiful again from barrier 4. She should settle 1-1 and although the price is no spoil, she will be very hard to beat.

 

(1) Chantrea is the interesting one making her Victorian debut. She’s a good WA horse but 1400m is probably a touch short of her best, and she will get back from the gate. She should’ve won first up at 1400m last prep in listed grade and does like soft ground, I just think she’ll be running on late and might be too far back.

 

(7) Bons Abroad will appreciate getting onto a soft track and was only 2.5L off Laverrod last start which reads well given that horse has come out and won the Hareeba at Mornington. The 1400m is some query.

 

(8) Good And Proper is flying but the map is sticky. She had every chance and couldn’t fend off Quantum Mechanic last start, which is good form, but I think she was a touch flattered there and barrier 11 will be tough.

 

Fairly obvious pick here in Need New Friends but she’s just so consistent, brings the best form, the best jockey and the best map. Wouldn’t shock if she started odds on.

 

Tip: (5) Need New Friends- $2.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Need New Friends

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Near impossible race over 2200m for the 3yo’s. (4) Liqueuro was 2000m back to 1600m at Sandown and ran on well, definitely looking for further. The win two back at Flemington in a fast race was very good and he should stay.

 

(5) Alloway was a head off that horse in the Flemington race and has since been to the Tasmanian Derby where he finished 2^nd, beaten 3.8L. He’s got the 2200m run under the belt which should be beneficial and J Kah jumps off Liqueuro to ride Alloway from their Flemington runs.

 

(1) Explosive Jack won the Tasmanian Derby in a romp coming from well back in the field and was solid behind Grandslam in the Alistair Clark last start, running the 2^nd fastest last 200m of the race and beating home Cherry Tortoni and Beltoro. He meets Alloway 4kg worse at the weights but off their Tas runs I still think Explosive Jack has him covered.

 

(2) Salto Angel will improve up in trip. She’s not well in at the weights with 57.5kg as a filly but is group 1 placed in the VRC Oaks.

 

Something small on Explosive Jack despite the weight. He’s got the runs on the board and the best platform for a strong 2200m.

Tip: (1) Explosive Jack- $5.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Explosive Jack

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

Bendigo Guineas and (8) Annavisto is the favourite coming off a sickening watch last start at Flemington where she missed the start, over raced savagely behind runners and just missed on the line. I love Kah taking over from Oliver- if anyone can get a horse to settle it’s J Kah and she does get the cross over nose band on which should help. Happy to follow my money and back her for the 3^rd time this prep after a strong win first up.

 

(7) Mozzie Monster was okay late first up down the straight. Her win here last prep was dominant with Kah on board before running 3^rd to Odeum in the Jim Moloney.

 

(4) Seb Song is a horse I have plenty of time for. He was solid behind Shelby Cobra on debut on a heavy 10 and did go out a dominant winner at The Valley over 1600m at the end of last prep.

 

(6) Military Parade is one I want to keep on side down from Sydney. He’s attacked the line at all three starts, generally from a fair way back and twice at Canterbury which is generally not easy to do. He takes a lot of riding to get going but just looks to have that real line chasing quality to win races, and the Hawkes camp have been exceptionally shrewd about the horses they bring to Melbourne recently. He looks like he’s been crying out for 1400m and although he’d probably prefer to be drawn out a bit, I think he’s got the upside to run a big race here.

Tip: (8) Annavisto- $2.95 at Sportsbetting

Value: (6) Military Parade- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Annavisto, 1 unit WIN Military Parade

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

Kenya has come out of the race which has thrown a spanner in the works.

 

(14) Ironclad is the fit horse on the scene and will be hard to hold out. He’s 3/3 in Australia, the last two coming at the 1600m and he showed an impressive turn of foot to win by 1.5L in Adelaide last start. Kah takes the ride, and he should get every chance from barrier 5. My small query would be whether he’s looking for 2000m now but with Kenya out he’ll be hard to beat.

(5) All Too Huiying won the Sale Cup first up last prep and is a very consistent horse. Should cross and settle close up and if he gets cover, he’ll be around the mark.

 

(6) Platoon next best back from the Australian Cup where he was probably outclassed and ran okay. The run prior at 1400m was very good, it’s just been a very strange prep and he likely gets back from barrier 10.

 

Going to have something small on (18) Indispensable now that he’s gained a start. I was keen on him at The Valley and he never once got clear, still running the race fastest last 200m. This is much harder and he’s in poorly under the conditions, but surely, they roll the dice and go forward in a race without a stack of speed. I think you’ll get even bigger BSP than the $27 available now so play late.

 

Tip: (18) Indispensable- $27.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Indispensable BSP

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 5:26pm (AEDT)

Disappointing that my best value of the day, Copper Fox, has been scratched, leaving me with (11) Faretti on top. This horse is flying having won his last two. He’s led all the way in both and did work early last start. Kah takes over from Willo which is no knock and he’ll roll forward and make this truly run.

 

No knock on (5) Fighting Harada the comeback horse. He had every chance last start and got over the top of Imperial Lad which is a good benchmark for this race. Maps well again and will be hard to beat.

 

(6) Exeter got everything in her favour at The Valley last start but bolted in and proved she can go forward if needed. The draw is sticky but Lane sticks.

 

Tip: (11) Faretti- $4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Faretti