Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, March 27th

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 12:31pm (AEDT)

Good little race to kick things off.

(1) Prague has been sound in two starts this prep, sitting wide throughout first up before finishing off well to claim 4^th in the G1 Newmarket Handicap last start. He returns to Sydney now and the only time he’s faced a heavy track before today was when he was narrowly beaten by King’s Legacy in the G1 Sires’ Produce. Tommy Berry jumps off Doubtland to ride Prague and at $6.50 he looks a decent price.

(2) Doubtland was ordinary first up but the key for him is the wet track. All three career victories have been on rain-affected ground, and his only start on a heavy track was a 4L win. Gets his chance to bounce back.

(5) Private Eye steps up sharply in grade here, rising from BM78 company to a competitive Listed race. He’s won his past five starts and he can only beat what’s put in front of him, so it’s hard to knock him. He handles heavy ground without any issues and I suspect he’ll be right in the finish again today.

(6) Isotope adds another layer of intrigue. She was very good winning back-to-back races in Brisbane before clipping heels and dislodging Ryan Maloney in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas when a red-hot favourite to win. Very interested to see how she measures up, with Tony Gollan declaring her his best bet anywhere this weekend.

(11) Andermatt won well on heavy ground first up and the horse he beat then came out and won again. He can bounce back from his last-start defeat.

(4) Odeum and (8) Marboosha come up from Melbourne to add even more depth!

Happy to sit this one out with so many chances and an unknown track pattern.

Tip: (4) Private Eye $7.50 Sportsbet

Value: (1) Prague $13 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 1:11pm (AEDT)

(13) Favourite Moon is a European import from the same stable as Addeybb, and he makes his Australian debut first up over 2400m here. That’s not unusual to see with these European horses. His two career victories have come over 2800m so he should have the stamina to get through the 2400m on a wet track. He ran 4^th in his only start on heavy ground in the UK, but that was just his second start in a race and it came over 1600m. The rule of thumb is that the UK stayers are superior to what we have here, so with just 53kg and barrier 1, I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t right in the finish.

(8) Collide was sound on his Australian debut last start, when 3^rd behind Mount Popa and Sacramento in the Randwick City Stakes. He’s won up to 2800m in Europe as well, so he will relish the step up in distance second up today. The stable reported he might just need the run before his first up effort, so expect him to come on from it and with four wins from six starts on soft ground, I’d expect him to handle the conditions.

(7) Sacramento is flying, with three wins and two placings from five starts this prep. He was only run down over the final 200m by Mount Popa last start, and he looks a pretty smart horse. Some concern over the really heavy track here as he was beaten a fair way at his only go on one, but that was when he was $41 in the Australian Derby, so it’s hard to really say he doesn’t handle it.

(14) Realm Of Flowers next best.

Tip: (11) Favourite Moon $6.50 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (5) Collide $6.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Favourite Moon, 0.5 units WIN Collide

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 1:51pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen to bet up in the last here as it looks one of the better betting races on the card.

I’ve been saying all prep for that it will be time to get on (7) She’s Ideel when she’s third up over 2000m, and today’s the day. She’s been good in her first two runs back from a spell, but she really finds a suitable race now. She has two wins from three starts when third up, has three wins and two placings from five starts on wet ground and looks set to peak here. I do concede her best racing has been done at Randwick but she’s certainly not bad here at Rosehill. Tricky barrier to overcome but I think she’s good enough.

I’m also very keen to be on (5) Polly Grey at $6.00. I think that’s a great bet. She was terrific first up when she ran home from near last to grab 3^rd. That was on a soft 7 track, so she had conditions to suit, and I said after that to follow her when she gets up in distance on a wet track. Her run last start was over the mile (still short of her best) and on her unfavoured firm ground, but she was still only beaten 2.5L despite sitting three-wide the trip. She now gets up to 2000m third up on a heavy track with James McDonald booked to ride. She’s won three of her six starts on heavy ground so if she can overcome that barrier, she should be right in the finish.

(9) Attention Run can be a saver at $10 – she’s won first up over a similar distance on heavy ground last preparation.

Tip: (7) She's Ideel $2.90 Bet365

Also Backing: (5) Polly Grey $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN She's Ideel, 1 unit WIN Polly Grey

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 2:31pm (AEDT)

The first of the Group 1s is the Ranvet Stakes, where we get Round 3 of Addeybb v Verry Elleegant, with Colette and Sir Dragonet added in this week. The score currently stands at 2-0 to Addeybb in his contest.

(1) Addeybb goes on top but it’s hard to be confident with the lameness issue surrounding him. He’s undergoing a vet check on raceday morning to see if he’s fit to run. That basically makes it a no bet race if he is passed fit.

He won this race last year off a near-identical preparation. He was first up from a 22-week spell and was tackling Verry Elleegant when she was third up. He’s gone to a new level since then, winning two of his three starts in Europe, including a dominant win in the G1 Champion Stakes at Royal Ascot. The wetter the better for him and I think if he shows up at his best, he’ll be winning this on his way to the Queen Elizabeth.

(6) Verry Elleegant has returned in good order this time around, once again. She was sound in defeat first up, running the fastest final 400m of the meeting, before justifying favouritism in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes last start. She also loves the wet, so the conditions won’t be any issue for her, and she has four wins from five starts when third up. However, her lone defeat third up came at the hands of Addeybb in this exact race last year.

(7) Colette being added in gives another layer of intrigue to the race. She beat Verry Elleegant in the Apollo, then ran her to a 0.2L margin in the Chipping Norton. Last start she ran 4th, beaten a length on firm ground, which isn’t he go. She’s a wet tracker and back on her desired track conditions today, she could cause an upset.

(2) Sir Dragonet over 2000m has arguably the best form in the race but he looks to have come back a different horse this prep.

We’re set for another cracking battle!

Tip: (1) Addeybb $2.25 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

The next Group 1 is the Rosehill Guineas.

It was hard to miss the run of (3) Mo’unga in the Randwick Guineas. You won’t get many sicker beats. With even luck, he probably wins that race running away by a couple of lengths, but as it was he got stuck behind a wall of horses and just had too much to do by the time he got out. The step up to 2000m looks ideal for him, and his only start on heavy ground was a win. Barrier 6 is better than barrier 2 so Tommy Berry should be able to get clear air this time around. With even luck, I think he’s the winner and probably one of the better bets on the card.

(6) Wheelhouse was another horse who didn’t get much luck in the Randwick Guineas, but for different reasons. He was caught three-wide the trip and still battled on well to be beaten 1.8L into 4^th. He draws nice enough in barrier 8 and Hugh Bowman replaces Jason Collett. He can go well.

(1) Lion’s Roar was only second up in the Randwick Guineas and did a good job to win. He now has four wins and two 2nds from seven career starts. He’s still got natural improvement in him and should be very competitive once again. His only go at this distance was a 0.8L defeat to Montefilia in the Spring Champion Stakes last prep.

(11) Sky Lab steps up sharply in grade but he was flying before a luckless run last start, when he just never got clear running. We know he handles wet ground and he’s not hopeless in a race like this.

Tip: (3) Mo'unga $2.70 Ladbrokes

Value: (4) Wheelhouse $14 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Mo'unga, 0.5 units WIN Wheelhouse

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

The George Ryder Stakes is up next, with a field of 13 to go around this week.

I was with (11) Funstar last week, who was brave in defeat in the Chipping Norton Stakes last start. She was only 0.6L off Verry Elleegant. Third up now, goes well in wet ground and draws barrier 1. I’m going to be backing a few roughies this week though.

(2) Avilius produced a run which was a glimpse of him at his very best. It’s been 18 months since his last win, but he hit the line powerfully first up, which put the writing on the wall for this. He’s 2/2 on heavy ground, so he’s going to get conditions to suit him, it’s just whether he is a bit flat off that first up run or whether he really is back to his best. The drop back in distance is also a query for mine.

(9) Junipal could be the smokey in the race. There’s plenty of horses who don’t like the heavy ground, but he’s not one of them. He’s got a good record on rain-affected ground and he’s placed in all three starts when first up. Whether he has the class is the issue, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see a big run from him.

(5) Star Of The Seas loves the wet and comes here out of the All-Star Mile. He’s definitely up to a race like this on his best form and can be included at double figure odds.

I think the absolute blowout in the race is (7) Think It Over. He’s done absolutely nothing wrong in his first two runs back this prep and he has a terrific third up record, with a win and two 2nds from three starts. Goes well on soft ground and could cause a boilover at $41.

Tip: (7) Think It Over $41 TAB

Also Backing: (5) Star Of The Seas $10 TAB & (9) Junipal $23 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Think it Over, 0.25 units WIN Junipal, 0.5 units WIN Star Of The Seas

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Click here to view our runner-by-runner preview and tips for the Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes!

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 5:11pm (AEDT)

I’m pretty keen on (4) Haut Brion Her to win the G1 The Galaxy here. She was outstanding first up last preparation when resuming from injury, sitting outside the leader before kicking away to win the Sheraco Stakes. She went on to run 5^th to Classique Legend in The Everest and then 2^nd to Gytrash in the Yes Yes Yes Stakes, which was run on a heavy 9 here at Rosehill. Her trials this time in have been fantastic, she has a very good first up record and looks to handle the rain-affected ground. Sneaky stuff from Chris Waller to enter Nature Strip, which drops Haut Brion Her an extra kilogram from what she was due to carry last weekend. With even luck, I think she’s your winner and I’m happy to have a decent bet at her.

(1) Eduardo caused an upset first up when he ran down Nature Strip. He’s won four of his five starts on wet ground and he won second up last preparation, so despite carrying top weight, I’d expect him to be very competitive again.

(2) Dirty Work was a huge run in defeat in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. He was only 1.4L off Classique Legend second up last prep, and just 0.2L behind Eduardo in the same race. Barrier 1 will be an interesting one at this stage of the day, as will the heavy ground as he’s untested on it. He can go well at double figure odds though.

(11) Wild Ruler resumed with a nice win in the Fireball Stakes first up. He’s untested on heavy ground but Snitzel’s generally tend to handle it. He ran 3^rd in a Coolmore at the end of last prep and gets in with just 52kg here, so he should go very well.

Interested to see how (3) Fabergino goes at her first start for Chris Waller. Not sure wet ground is her go but she could give a good sight.

Tip: (4) Haut Brion Her $4.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Haut Brion Her

Odds Last Updated: March 27, 2021, 5:51pm (AEDT)

Really competitive race and I’ll be backing two at double figure odds here.

(3) Vulpine is flying, recording three wins and a 0.3L 2^nd in her past four starts. Andermatt was the horse who ran her down two starts back, and that was on a heavy track. She drew barrier 1 last week but draws the carpark this week, so we’re getting $14.

(7) Seasons was good first up behind Vulpine, with a 0.8L margin between the two. She has a great second up record, and she should have gone close to beating Haut Brion Her in the Sheraco at this stage last prep. She’s won on heavy ground before so should handle the track. I’d prefer if this were at Randwick, but her record at Rosehill is still good and I think at $11 she’s over the odds.

(6) Written Beauty comes out of the strongest form race here, beaten by the likes of Eduardo and Nature Strip last start, but I thought she was fairly plain there, and her first up win wasn’t hugely dominant. She could just spike third up and blow these away, but I have reservations about her at the minute.

(12) Emanate couldn’t get past Vulpine and Seasons last start, despite having a great run throughout. Back onto a wet surface will suit her.

(4) Wandabaa wasn’t entered to run last week but lines up this week. Her first up run was very good and I made her one to follow, but it’s just how far back she gets from the wide gate today.

Tip: (7) Seasons $11 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (3) Vupline $14 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Seasons, 0.5 units WIN Vupline