Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, November 14th

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Two horses I’m interested in here to get us started in the West. (11) Western Rhythm was a big run in defeat first up behind Tajmali, working home strongly from back in the field. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and so long as she gets a decent run in transit from barrier 8, she looks a great chance.

The clear value in the race is (3) Glamour Packed, who opened $17 but is already into $9.50. I still think that’s a decent price. She ran well three starts back against Caerhelan, then won two starts ago over the mile here at Ascot. She failed badly last start but did sit wide without cover for the entire race, so forgive her for that. Dropping back to 1400m is a small query but she draws for a good run and she can bounce back.

(4) Mood Goddess has potential first up to go well here at double figure odds, as does (6) Porphyrio.

Happy to be against (1) Lacevinsky and (8) Melarab.

Tip: (11) Western Rhythm $4.20 Bet365

Value: (3) Glamour Packed $9.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Western Rhythm, 0.5 units WIN Glamour Packed

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Really only two horses I’m interested in here. (5) Home In Five is a horse I backed last start at Bunbury where it carried 60kg and won easily. Prior to that he had no luck behind Solaia, who I think is a decent chance in the Champion Fillies Stakes later in the day. The query here is barrier 1, with the inside having not been the best place to be at Ascot in some meetings recently, but they are racing on a fresh pad of grass there with the rail back in the 9m position, so hopefully it’s not inferior.

The value is (2) Schoolhouse Rock who is a horse I’ve had plenty of time for ever since before it debuted. He ran last at his first run back from a spell in what was a very strong race, but he bounced back last start with victory over this track and distance. He’s somewhat of a mystery on rain-affected ground so that’s the unknown but I think he’ll go well here if he does handle the conditions.

(9) Peppijack will get conditions to suit and can be included at good odds.

Pretty happy to oppose (8) Beau Zoom here, especially if the rain really comes down. He was beaten 90L on heavy ground in Melbourne at the end of last prep.

Tip: (5) Home In Five $2.95 Sportsbetting

Value: (2) Schoolhouse Rock $7.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Home In Five, 1 unit WIN Schoolhouse Rock

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Super competitive race here.

(2) Eeyore Wayz drops back to a 66+ race after finishing off well to be beaten 1.75L in G3 WFA company last start. He’s got a powerful finish on him but his biggest downfall is his racing pattern as he settles at the back of the field. He gets the blinkers on for the first time today and Chris Parnham gets back aboard, so if he’s close enough on the turn, look out.

(1) Mum’s My Hero makes his WA debut after previously racing in South Australia. He’s a short course specialist, with four wins and three 2nds from eight starts at 1000m. He’s undefeated from three starts when first up from a spell. Gets in nicely with in-form apprentice Laqdar Ramoly and he’s won in the wet before, so a big watch on him today. At the odds he represents a bit of value.

Michael Lane’s (5) Resortman resumes from a spell. He’s a winner of three races from five starts and he’s undefeated first up, but he’s never raced over 1000m so first up in a hot race at this distance is a little query for mine. Also opposing (11) Express Time who bolted in last start but did have things go all his way.

(6) Wine Night and (9) Comes A Time can be included at bigger odds.

Tip: (2) Eeyore Wayz $3.20 Bet365

Value: (1) Mum’s My Hero $14 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Eeyore Wayz, 0.5 units WIN Mum’s My Hero

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(11) She’s Alight is ready to win today. She comes into this third up from a spell and she’s improved with each run this prep so I’m expecting her to improve again today. She has a good record at the track and distance and has some form on wet ground, so with a decent run from the wide gate, she should go well.

I would have been very keen to back (5) Luke’s Gold if this were a firm track but he’s got no real wet track form to speak of. He won on soft ground on his debut, but that was some 54 starts back and four years ago. He hasn’t won on soft ground in any of his 11 other attempts.

(8) Position Of Power can improve on a soft track today. He’s placed in six of his seven starts on rain-affected ground so he should appreciate the ground.

(7) Kelvin looks the horse to beat after a good first up run. He’ll lead from barrier 5.

Tip: (11) She’s Alight E/W $7.00/$2.62 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W She’s Alight

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Looks a race between the two Peters horses.

(9) Truly Great is our market leader at $1.80 but I can’t be taking that price. I’d much rather be on the stablemate (8) True Attraction at $4.60. Truly Great has won both starts this prep over 1500m and 1800m, but not drops back to 1400m third up which is a query. True Attraction has also had two runs this prep, running 2^nd to Inspirational Girl first up before finishing hard when midfield behind Luke’s Gold over 1400m last start. This is her third run back from a 66-week spell and she’s undefeated third up leading into this, so she looks ready.

Both of these two ran on the 31^st October and although they raced over different distances, True Attraction finished in much better closing splits than Truly Great. True Attraction clocked a final 400m of 22.84sec and a final 200m of 11.20sec, both clearly the fastest of her race, while Truly Great ran 23.98sec and 12.24sec.

With that in mind, and the fact that Truly Great comes back in trip, I’m keen to back the stablemate True Attraction, albeit she will need to come from behind and run past the favourite.

Finally, the wet ground. True Attraction has had three wins and a 2^nd from four starts on soft ground, while Truly Great has had two 2^nd placings from as many starts on soft ground. So True Attraction should relish the rain.

(7) The Fugazi is another that will relish the wet ground and can fill the placings second up.

Tip: (8) True Attraction $4.60 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN True Attraction

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I think (2) Too Close The Sun is the best bet of the day here. He raced in Melbourne last prep, dominating a 2000m race at Moonee Valley before going on to win both the Terang Cup and Warrnambool Cup. He came back to WA this time in and resumed with a terrific effort over 1400m behind Inspirational Girl, who is a leading contender for the Railway Stakes. He steps up to 1800m today which should suit him much better, and he’s won twice from three starts when second up previously. Most important, he’ll get the ground he loves here. He’s undefeated from three starts on rain-affected ground. He’ll roll forward from barrier 13 and will be awfully hard to run down.

I think the value in the race is (9) Mystery Miss. She’s had two runs back from a spell and has been ridden by apprentice Laqdar Ramoly on both occasions. Chris Parnham goes on third up today and she’s won twice from three starts when third up previously. That jockey change alone suggests intent and that she might be ready. She’s failed in three starts at the track and distance previously but she’s got a decent record on wet ground, a good draw, the top rider and I really don’t think there is a whole lot of depth to this race.

Interestingly, there is another Peters horse in the race, which is (12) Royal Command and it’s shorter in the market than Mystery Miss. It was also ridden by Laqdar Ramoly first up and Clint Johnston-Porter takes over today. C Parnham is their go-to rider while Pike is unavailable, so it’s notable that he goes on Mystery Miss rather than Royal Command.

Tip: (2) Too Close The Sun $2.70 Bet365

Value: (9) Mystery Miss $14 Bet365

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Too Close The Sun, 0.5 units WIN Mystery Miss

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The day’s feature is the G3 WA Champion Fillies Stakes. I’ll be backing the same two horses I backed in the Burgess Queen Stakes on Melbourne Cup Day.

(2) Snickerdoodledandy looks awfully hard to beat after she won that race. She looked under pressure on the turn but she balanced up and charged home over the top to record her third win from five starts. That followed a luckless first up run when held up the entire straight. She draws similarly today in barrier 3 and the step up to 1600m will be no problem for her. Nor will the soft track, given she won the Burgess Queen on a Soft 7. She is the one to beat.

(8) Solaia is the value at $8.50. She was very well backed in the Burgess Queen, about $7.50 into $4.50 at one stage. She box seated and was forced to sit and sprint while the others wound up with momentum down the outside, which was the best part of the track that day. I believe the inside section of the track was inferior, so forgive her for that, and from barrier 6 today she should be able to come down the outside. Respecting the money for her last start and also the SP.

(3) Kissonallfourcheeks ran 2^nd to stablemate Snickerdoodledandy in the Burgess Queen and gets every chance again today from barrier 2.

The one at huge value to include is (5) Indigo Blue at $34. She ran 6^th in the Burgess Queen but jockey Jordan Turner got off and said she could have run top three with a better draw, as she had to come from last having drawn wide. She’s wide again today but I wouldn’t leave her out of the numbers.

Tip: (2) Snickerdoodledandy $2.70 Palmerbet

Value: (8) Solaia $8.60 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Snickerdoodledandy, 1 unit WIN Solaia

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Two horses I’m keen to be on here in the Colonel Reeves Stakes. (9) Indian Pacific goes on top. He’s an exciting horse with six wins from eight starts. He resumed with a narrow victory in the Crawford Stakes and he was made to work for that. That should have him at his peak for this. He should jump to the lead and provided nothing pesters him up front, he’ll be there for a long way.

Chris Parnham jumps off (6) Stageman and jumps on another Peters horse, (14) Celebrity Queen. She was a touch unlucky last start but she wont be in that sort of trouble today from barrier 9. She should be sailing down the outside. At $6.00, she’s a touch over the odds.

(3) Rock Magic is an 11YO but he ran a blinder first up and should only improve second up, especially on wet ground. Throw him in the numbers at double figure odds.

(8) Mankind is a complete blowout chance at $51. He has five wins from eight starts on wet ground, so with the expected rain, he’ll get conditions to suit.

(5) Flirtini and (6) Stageman have obvious claims.

Tip: (9) Indian pacific $3.90 Sportsbet

Also backing: (14) Celebrity Queen $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Indian Pacific, 1 unit WIN Celebrity Queen

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(9) Em Tee Aye won back-to-back races to open the campaign but they got the tactics wrong on him last start, when they elected to go back to last from the wide gate. Those tactics failed and failed badly, with the horse running last. They’ll go back to their normal tactics and go forward today from barrier 7, and we should see a much better performance. The mile and the wet ground are both small queries but happy to be in his corner today.

(5) Morning Song should be ready now, third up from a spell. It was a good effort by her to run 3^rd first up but she was plain last start. That’s not unlike her though, she’s never won from eight starts when first or second up. She’s undefeated from two starts when third up from a spell though, so expect her to improve sharply today.

(3) Rebel Knight continues to run well, while (1) Aconite was a last-start winner and isn’t hopeless.

Tip: (9) Em Tee Aye $4.60 Bet365

Value: (5) Morning Song $13 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Em Tee Aye, 0.5 units WIN Morning Song