Newcastle Racing Tips: Saturday, November 14th

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This first race has two fillies who are closely related to solid horses. (12) Pippa Charlotte is on top for me coming into this on the back of three solid trials. In the latest trial, she wore blinkers for the first time and Tommy Berry had to give her a little slap with the persuader to get her going, which indicated to me that they switched her off well whilst leading the trial. Although the time was not flash, she accelerated well when asked and will no doubt be in a good position come the long Newcastle straight. She is the three-quarter sister to Away Game.

(13) Sliders is the other filly who has only had the one trial but looked to have a bit of talent and should be ready for this. There is a good chance she will want further than 900m, but her talent will be on display and some horses use that talent to win races that look iffy. She is the half sister to the Group One winner Flit.

(1) Baby Wong was very good in his only trial and looks a speedy type. 900m looks a good starting point.

(14) Snowdrop next best.

Top Pick: (12) Pippa Charlotte $4.80 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

I am willing to forgive the last start failure of (11) Free Rider as he clearly didn’t handle the heavy going. He is on a quick-back up here with a good draw and a 2kg claim for Tom Sherry, which will put him in the best spot possible throughout the run. 1300m is a good step back, so let’s hope Tom Sherry watches the tape on how Aaron Bullock rode the gelding.

(15) Crackerjack Kenny is another who will appreciate the firmer surface, even though he is coming back from 1800m. He gets the 2kg claim of Brock Ryan once again but the poor draw will mean he will have to sit in the back half of the field and ride for luck.

(14) Cecilia was brilliant last start here on the heavy going and will look to continue that form here. She is yet to win on a good surface which is a concern and the draw may just put her in a tricky position but if she can over come that, she will be right in the finish.

(8) Monica’s Star next best.

Top Pick: (11) Free Rider $11.00 Sportsbet E/W

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Hard to go past the French import in (7) Vadiyann here. He was ultra-impressive winning in December at Randwick over the 2000m in his only run thus far in Australia. He would have adapted to the Australian climate and he has had two nice trials in the lead-up to this one. He will sit in a forward position with Tim Clark aboard, I think there is better things in store for him than this race.

(3) Opacity is one that has let me down this preparation as I had high hopes for him after last preparation. His runs have been down on his prior form, but I think he will appreciate this step up in distance. Look for him late.

(8) Across Dubai is a horse I have plenty of time for and I don’t think a win is too far away.

(6) Fortress Command next best.

Top Pick: (7) Vadiyann $2.55 Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Wide open race here and have settled with (6) St Covet’s Spirit. On paper her first-up stats are ideal but she has excuses in most of those runs. She isn’t a wet tracker and that showed last preparation with her placings in back to back Group 3’s, running within a length of Rubisaki and Subpoenaed in the J H B Carr Stakes followed by a second to Dawn Passage. In that race she beat home Icebath and Groundswell just to name a couple. She is drawn to sit wherever she pleases and I believe she is worth a dabble each-way here.

(12) Deference is another who I will have a play on each-way as I think they went up incorrectly with the odds for him. His first-up run was better than what it seemed whilst his second-up run was okay, I think he hit the lead too early and would have been better running on. Back on a good track and up to 1200m for only the second time, I think he is a smokey.

(1) Superium gets a nice claim of Louise Day and ran well in a better grade behind Blazing Miss. Include.

(15) Anethole is next best.

Top Pick: (6) St Covet’s Spirit $11.00 Bet365 E/W

Also Playing: (12) Deference $13.00 Palmerbet E/W

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I am with the British import (1) Spirit Ridge returning for the first time since May. In that lone Australian start, he bridged a gap that looked unlikely to beat Agassi in the shadows of the post over the 1550m. He comes into this contest on the back of two trials and have stuck with Josh Parr from the trials and won’t claim with 61kg. There is little speed in this race which should offset the draw as he should follow (4) Ulusaba across. He will love the Newcastle track and will be competitive if they have him forward enough.

(9) Prospectus brings consistency and Brisbane form to Newcastle and looks well placed. He will be coming late especially if the leaders over do it.

(4) Ulusaba gets an easy lead and gets a good track once again which brings him even further into this contest. If he makes this a sit and sprint, look out.

(13) Super is the next best.

Top Pick: (1) Spirit Ridge $6.50 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(2) Ellsberg has been impressive in his two starts thus far and I think the market has got it wrong. His first-up run was very good and the form from that race has stood up nicely with Easifar and Let Me Think winning next start and Selburose winning last night at Canterbury. He wasn’t suited to the heavy going and got headed in the straight before fighting back and finishing second by half a length. He fights like a bulldog, so I think he out fights his rivals late in the piece.

(1) Real Peace is another who has been underestimated by the bookies and will improve from his last start third in the Bondi Stakes as he gets back to a good track.

(9) Perfect Radiance has talent, but I think it is over-hyped. She will run well but I have her behind the other two in terms of talent.

(12) Leeward next best.

Top Pick: (2) Ellsberg $6.60 Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(3) Ranier went up the wrong price when the market opened and has been backed into $5.00 in some places. He was massive in the Theo Marks behind Wild Planet and Funstar before carrying 62kg and settling at the back of the field in his last start, where he finished 3.9 lengths in fourth. Third-up fit and back to 1300m with a dry track, he should get a lovely run throughout and be hard to hold out.

(11) Signore Fox is another I want to play each way on as I thought his run in the Sydney Stakes was pretty good. He is suited to the distance and is back in class which makes him a solid pick. Should get into a nice position from the inside and running on a good track enhances his chances.

(10) Cuba will go forward from the wide barrier and will be in this race a long way. He does meet Ranier 2kg worse off but I have to have him in the exotics.

(1) Trumbull was impressive winning the Spring Stakes but has to carry top weight from a sticky barrier. He is getting out to his right price now.  

Top Pick: (3) Ranier $5.00 Bet365

Also Playing: (11) Signore Fox $14.00 Sportsbet E/W

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I am really looking forward to seeing (7) Strawb return on her home track. I think she will reach new heights this preparation after a solid preparation earlier this year. She has had two good trials behind Farnan and Two Big Fari and looks set to hit the ground running. She gets a good track and an ideal draw to be able to sit handy throughout before putting her opposition to the sword. I think she will stamp herself as one to watch going forward.

(11) Saas Fee gets back on a good track and is ludicrous odds. She will be nice and fit and has drawn to get a nice run. The $21 is overs and I’ll be playing her each-way as well.

(3) Miss Einstein loomed to win but couldn’t get it down first-up. She will be better for the run.

(1) Enchanted Heart next best.

Top Pick: (7) Strawb $3.60 Palmerbet

Also Playing: (11) Saas Fee $21.00 Bet365 E/W

Odds Last Updated: November 15, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(9) Through The Cracks is a deserved favourite here and he will go very close. His first-up run on the heavy was good finishing less than a length in third behind Hilo, who she meets 1.5kg better in the weights. His second-up record is good and will appreciate getting back onto a good surface. The draw is promising, so hopefully James McDonald can get him into a nice spot.

(11) Asharani is another who meets Hilo better at the weights after her first-up second behind Athiri. She beat Hilo that day by 0.1 lengths and meets him 2.5kg better off at the weights. She is drawn nicely and is nice odds.

(14) Two Big Fari will come on from his first-up Kosciuszko run and should be thereabouts here. He is drawn well and should be in a nice predominant role throughout.

(5) Chat next best.

Top Pick: (9) Through The Cracks $3.80 Sportsbet

Also Playing: (11) Asharani $12.00 Sportsbet