Racing Tips

Donald Racing Tips: Sunday, November 15th

There are nine races on Sunday’s Donald Cup program and The Horse has previewed the meeting with his tips for the key races below!

by
The Horse
15 November 2020

There are nine races on Sunday’s Donald Cup program and The Horse has previewed the meeting with his tips for the key races below.

The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.

Keen to play in Race 3, Race 4, Race 5, Race 6 and Race 7 (Cup).

Race 1

Tac Be Races Ready Mdn Plate (2000m)
12:45pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Tac Be Races Ready Mdn Plate (2000m) 12:45pm (AEDT)
1. Axecapital (7) J: Zac Spain (59.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	11	10	9.3	10
2. Bellini Boy (6) J: Jarrod Fry (59.5kg) T: P A Preusker	31	34	35	31
3. Celtic Samurai (1) J: Dylan Dunn (59.5kg) T: Adam O'neill	13	14	13.2	12
4. Steel Sedaka (3) J: Dean Holland (59.5kg) T: J P Salanitri	11	12	10	10
5. Tails Prince (4) J: Neil Farley (59.5kg) T: N A Blackiston	46	61	53	51
6. Capecain (9) J: Ms Tatum Bull (57.5kg) T: Ms H Burns	41	51	55	41
7. Etoile Brillante (5) J: Declan Bates (57.5kg) T: Archie Alexander	2.9	2.9	2.75	2.9
8. Maree De Lune (11) J: Ben Allen (57.5kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	2.3	2.35	2.25	2.3
9. Scotch Sun (2) J: Clayton Douglas (57.5kg) T: D W Whitworth	81	101	131	101
10. There For You (10) J: Jack Hill (57.5kg) T: Dane Smith	19	21	17.2	19
11. Wave Of Success (8) J: Melissa Julius (57.5kg) T: Stephen Lenehan	151	151	191	151

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Goodwin Village Donald Mdn (1350m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Goodwin Village Donald Mdn (1350m) 1:15pm (AEDT)
1. Al Badr (12) J: Patrick Moloney (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
2. Beyonmore (10) J: Jarrod Lorensini (58kg) T: S Morrish	51	67	79	61
3. Inner Spirit (13) J: John Allen (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4. Kohli (5) J: Declan Bates (58kg) T: Archie Alexander	3.2	3.5	3.1	3.3
5. Mackong Fortune (6) J: Zac Spain (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	67	81	63	81
6. Magnum Bullet (7) J: Jack Hill (58kg) T: M Sell	41	51	51	41
7. Nowitzki (8) J: John Allen (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	6	6	6.6	5.5
8. Seb Song (4) J: Clayton Douglas (58kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold	2.1	2.1	2	2.1
9. Whiskey 'N' Women (1) J: Jarrod Fry (58kg) T: J Louise & J Frew	46	61	69	61
10. Zorro's Ghost (2) J: Harry Coffey (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	10	8	9.1	9
11. Shy Pippa (9) J: Dean Holland (56kg) T: J P Salanitri	31	31	27.5	31
12. Test Du Style (11) J: Ms Tatum Bull (56kg) T: Nathan Hobson	51	67	69	61
13. Wanalirri (3) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: P F Ryan

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

Race 3

Donald/Dist Community Bank Mdn (1350m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Donald/Dist Community Bank Mdn (1350m) 1:50pm (AEDT)
1. Chromium (2) J: Neil Farley (58.5kg) T: Stephen Lenehan	15	16	14.4	16
2. Delightful Tycoon (14) J: Declan Bates (58.5kg) T: J S Bull	9	9.5	8.4	9.5
3. Equinox (5) J: Dean Yendall (58.5kg) T: Nathan Hobson	34	51	43	34
4. Jousting (8) J: Ms Lucinda Boyd (58.5kg) T: Ms A Shillito	17	18	19.2	18
5. Lean Thy Arms (9) J: Dean Holland (58.5kg) T: P A Preusker	14	15	13.4	12
6. Lost In Time (7) J: Harry Coffey (58.5kg) T: A R Coffey	23	26	21	26
7. Out And Dreaming (11) J: Will Price (58.5kg) T: Andrew Noblet	7.5	7.5	7.1	7.5
8. Reforestation (12) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: N A Blackiston
9. Ahika (13) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (56.5kg) T: S A Dwyer	2.45	2.3	2.55	2.3
10. Anything Something (6) J: Ms Christine Puls (56.5kg) T: Ms H White	101	151	141	151
11. Lady Maggie (3) J: Ms Tatum Bull (56.5kg) T: Ms H Burns	27	31	34	34
12. Pay The Ransom (10) J: Jack Hill (56.5kg) T: G A Thornton	6	6.5	6	6.5
13. Ready To Indulge (1) J: Ben Allen (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
14. Storming Princesse (4) J: Jarrod Fry (56.5kg) T: K G Mccartin	67	81	101	101
15. Line Of Descent (15) J: Ms Rose Pearson (58.5kg) T: Brent Stanley	20	26	18.4	21

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

In Race 3 we have another short-priced favourite. And again, we are taking the price. (9) Ahika looks to have the best form coming into this, first=up placing second at Echuca over 1200 metres. Will be fitter for the run, and improved/matured from last preparation—so she goes on top. She also gets the claim of Laura Lafferty which can only assist. The wide gate, and being a back-marker, might be the only question mark. Leaders may get an advantage on this good track today.

(7) Out And Dreaming is the one at nicer odds, while (4) Jousting (at $16) looks like he could fill the exotics. Hesitate taking him as a winner after seventeen starts for six places. But he will get a good run by utilising some early speed.

Tip: (9) Anhika $1.95 Sportsbet

Race 4

Mallee Landscapes Mdn Plate (1350m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Mallee Landscapes Mdn Plate (1350m) 2:25pm (AEDT)
1. Bon Shadow (3) J: Dylan Dunn (58.5kg) T: Ms G Johnstone	12	12	10.8	12
2. Boom Boom Sweet (9) J: Ms Tatum Bull (58.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	2.2	2.25	2.15	2.3
3. Cliff's Boy (6) J: Clayton Douglas (58.5kg) T: Erin Maher	19	21	21.5	19
4. Dr Schultz (14) J: John Allen (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	5	4.2	5.1	4.2
5. Lexington Lad (7) J: Zac Spain (58.5kg) T: Henry Dwyer	19	21	17.6	21
6. Not A Problem (13) J: Neil Farley (58.5kg) T: Archie Alexander	6.5	7	6.3	7
7. Palacio Musico (10) J: Patrick Moloney (58.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	7	7.5	6.4	7
8. Silent Khan (12) J: Will Price (58.5kg) T: Nick Smart	91	101	91	151
9. Small Mac (2) J: Harry Coffey (58.5kg) T: A R Coffey	71	91	101	81
10. Talk About Tom (1) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (58.5kg) T: D J Connors	46	81	65	71
11. Alluring Heights (15) J: Melissa Julius (56.5kg) T: Stephen Lenehan	201	151	201	151
12. Fresca (5) J: Jack Hill (56.5kg) T: Colin Scott
13. Riverlea Virtuoso (11) J: Declan Bates (56.5kg) T: N J Allport	101	101	141	151
14. Three Wives (4) J: Ms Christine Puls (56.5kg) T: Nicholas Roe
15. Reoffered (8) J: Dean Holland (56.5kg) T: Keith Hall	251	201	321	151

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

There are a few leaders in this match-up, with (3) Cliff’s Boy and (5) Lexington Lad looking to fight it out. (2) Boom Boom Sweet should be able to come across and be one-back one-out. Pending a good run in transit, this could be its chance to win a maiden (currently seven starts for six places). He also gets the 3kg claim today (maybe that could be the difference) – while track experience is a positive.

The threat comes from (4) Dr Shultz who made a decent run at Bendigo, and again, the Maher & Eustace shine is a factor.

Tip: (2) Boom Boom Sweet $2.45 Sportsbet

Also backing: Quinella (2) Boom Boom Sweet & (4) Dr Shultz

Race 5

Gilchrist & Co (Bm70) (1350m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Gilchrist & Co (Bm70) (1350m) 3:00pm (AEDT)
1. Donndubhan (6) J: Harry Coffey (61.5kg) T: Brent Stanley	19	19	21.5	21
2. Pravro (8) J: Tatum Bull (60.5kg) T: Ms G Johnstone	9.5	9.5	8.9	9.5
3. Kent Street (1) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (60kg) T: P A Chow	8.5	9	7.8	7.5
4. Night Guy (12) J: Zac Spain (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	4.2	4.2	4.65	4
5. Honorable Mention (2) J: Ben Allen (59kg) T: Henry Dwyer	5.5	5.5	5.1	6
6. Orienzel (11) J: Jack Hill (59kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
7. Te Ata (7) J: Will Price (59kg) T: Declan Maher	19	20	19.2	18
8. Paddy Mac (10) J: Melissa Julius (58.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
9. Outlandos (3) J: Dean Yendall (57kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	3.6	3.4	3.35	3.5
10. Regal Rossa (9) J: Fred W Kersley (56kg) T: Matthew Cumani	12	10	9.2	9.5
11. Uptown Lilly (4) J: Dean Holland (56kg) T: G A Osborne	31	31	28	34
12. Yulong Crown (5) J: Declan Bates (56kg) T: P A Preusker	31	34	35	34

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

This is the race that looks to have the best bet on the card, in (4) Night Guy. Already won in bm64 grade, was second in a bm78 grade race where he came second to Groundswell. His subsequent, and last run, was a touch disappointing in a bm84. To put that into perspective he goes around here back in a bm70. The wide gate is a pain, but overall it is a smallish field, so that shouldn’t hurt his chances. He seems to relish the Heavy tracks, but has also won on Good. Coming from the Price & Kent stable, we can be assured he would be still running well.

(9) Outlandos should race well for the McEvoy stable, but he comes into this from an average run in a bm64. The Group 3 he competed in last preparation, coming last behind Super Seth, now looks like it was simply an over-reach.

Tip: (4) Night Guy $3.40 Sportsbet

Race 6

Leading Teams (Bm64) (1620m)
3:35pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Leading Teams (Bm64) (1620m) 3:35pm (AEDT)
1. Zachaz (9) J: Clayton Douglas (62kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	4.6	4.6	4.3	4.6
2. Court Deep (1) J: John Allen (60.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	4	3.8	3.9	4
3. Excelsior Star (11) J: Ms Tatum Bull (60kg) T: P A Preusker	27	41	34	34
4. Laundy (5) J: Dylan Dunn (60kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	10	10	9	9
5. Blunakka (2) J: Jarrod Lorensini (59.5kg) T: Dan O'sullivan	35	34	43	41
6. Rising Archie (4) J: Harry Coffey (59.5kg) T: P A Preusker	31	34	28.5	34
7. Cafe Tortoni (8) J: Ben Allen (59kg) T: Patrick Payne	4.8	5	4.5	5
8. Sir Harald (7) J: Jarrod Fry (59kg) T: J F Moloney	14	14	12.8	15
9. Skelton (6) J: Jack Hill (59kg) T: Dane Smith	19	20	17.6	23
10. Can't Take A Trick (12) J: Neil Farley (58.5kg) T: Archie Alexander	11	12	10	10
11. Agosto (3) J: Dean Holland (58kg) T: P A Preusker	23	21	23.5	23
12. Lord Goldberg (10) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (57.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	61	81	93	81
13. Zipitsweetie (13) J: Declan Bates (57kg) T: Archie Alexander	18	18	15.4	17

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

Couldn’t get through the card without backing a Maher & Eustace runner—and there are two here that look like they could win. (1) Zachaz looks to be the one with better class ratings, after competing in higher grades.

The concern is the weight, and the fact that top jockey John Allen, is on their other runner (2) Court Deep. Going to take that lead and back him.

Tip: (4) Court Deep $3.70 Sportsbet

Race 7

Bet365 Donald Cup (1620m)
4:10pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Bet365 Donald Cup (1620m) 4:10pm (AEDT)
1. Ken's Dream (5) J: John Allen (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	9.5	8.5	8.7	8
2. Prince Ziggy (9) J: Clayton Douglas (58kg) T: Jamie Edwards	31	41	28.5	34
3. Maritana (3) J: Patrick Moloney (57.5kg) T: J R Welsh	8.5	7.5	7.9	8
4. Don't Doubt Dory (7) J: Ben Allen (56.5kg) T: J R Welsh	4.8	5	4.5	5
5. The Closer (12) J: Harry Coffey (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6. Royal Performance (10) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: L Smith	7	5.5	6.1	6
7. Vungers (1) J: Zac Spain (56kg) T: B C Hearps	2.45	2.45	2.4	2.6
8. Buena Veloz (4) J: Declan Bates (56kg) T: Archie Alexander	26	34	24.5	31
9. Mahis Angel (6) J: Dean Holland (56kg) T: P A Preusker	31	41	35	34
10. Potent Force (8) J: Will Price (56kg) T: C J Cassar	126	201	201	251
11. Pres De Toi (11) J: Melissa Julius (56kg) T: P A Chow	15	14	15.2	13
12. Just Stellar (2) J: Neil Farley (56kg) T: C J Davis	126	151	161	151

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

Working backwards here, the top four or five runners in the market look to be the only possible winners. So despite the field of twelve, we really are looking at splitting those runners.

(1) Ken’s Dream has given punters plenty of highlights over the years, but he is not going as well these days. He did have some niggles recently, so maybe there are some excuses. He does have pretty average form on Good tracks which doesn’t help with confidence here. But in this graded race, he can still be there in the finish—and John Allen will give him every chance—but not sure he can win.

(3) Maritana on the other hand has proven form on Good tracks—and is pretty versatile. Did step up in grade to bm84 which found him out. Maybe his peak has already happened—happy to take him on today.

(4) Don’t Doubt Dory was the early favourite, but a false one. Has raced in higher grades, but has not necessary shown the form to really be a clear favourite in this field. Best form has been on Heavy. The four wins from eight starts is hard to knock, but he is another we can take on today.

This leaves (7) Vungers the one with the least number of ‘cons’. Doesn’t win a lot, but is super consistent and has been performing pretty well this preparation. He won’t know himself with 56kgs on board, and gets the sweet inside draw. If the rail is playing friendly, than he can jump and run away with it. The 1600 metres means he’ll be vulnerable, but the distance shouldn’t be a problem overall.

Tip: (7) Vungers $3.70 Sportsbet

Race 8

Pea Co (Bm64) (2000m)
4:45pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Pea Co (Bm64) (2000m) 4:45pm (AEDT)
1. Creative Hero (9) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (61.5kg) T: Shea Eden	20	19	19.2	19
2. Count Zero (1) J: Clayton Douglas (61kg) T: Symon Wilde	31	34	35	34
3. Nirvana (5) J: John Allen (61kg) T: Richard Cully	5.5	5	5.1	5
4. Just You (11) J: Jarrod Fry (60kg) T: Ms K Durden	23	31	23	26
5. Mount Madeira (13) J: Harry Coffey (60kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	17	17	15.6	16
6. Printmaker (14) J: Dean Yendall (60kg) T: Symon Wilde	6	5.5	5.5	6
7. Cracksman (4) J: Declan Bates (59.5kg) T: L Smith	3.4	3.5	3.65	3.5
8. Pure Exceleration (7) J: Neil Farley (59.5kg) T: N A Blackiston	15	16	14.4	15
9. Bet Red (8) J: Zac Spain (59kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
10. Rocky Raccoon (3) J: Jarrod Lorensini (59kg) T: Thomas Carberry	21	26	26.5	23
11. Bruno Stars (10) J: Dean Holland (58.5kg) T: P A Preusker
12. Prince Romany (2) J: Fred W Kersley (57.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	4	4	3.75	3.9
13. Sheezabigdeel (15) J: Will Price (57.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
14. Don't Make Me Wait (12) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: N F Kennedy
15. Wolf King (6) J: Samuel Payne (56kg) T: G T Murphy	301	201	301	151

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

Race 9

Pepper Hill Lodge (Bm64) (1200m)
5:20pm (AEDT)

Race 9 Pepper Hill Lodge (Bm64) (1200m) 5:20pm (AEDT)
1. Night King (8) J: Dylan Dunn (61kg) T: Jamie Scott	18	20	17.2	19
2. Sabotage (1) J: Ben Allen (60.5kg) T: Symon Wilde	17	18	16.2	18
3. Dreams And Schemes (12) J: Neil Farley (60kg) T: N A Blackiston	5.5	5	4.85	4.8
4. Foxy's Star (7) J: Dean Yendall (60kg) T: M J Williams	15	15	13.8	15
5. Duecourse (14) J: Clayton Douglas (59.5kg) T: Bill Wilde
6. Harpuna (20) J: Jarrod Fry (59.5kg) T: Peter Hardacre
7. Dee Keepa (6) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (59kg) T: L Smith	2.6	2.45	2.45	2.4
8. Lowanna Magic (3) J: Declan Bates (59kg) T: P A Preusker
9. Toolbar (18) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (59kg) T: G A Osborne
10. Cheer For Me (10) J: Will Price (57.5kg) T: Dan O'sullivan	61	101	97	101
11. Dreamwaker (16) J: Zac Spain (57.5kg) T: Ms A Macpherson	18	16	18.2	16
12. Ourconi (15) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
13. Diamond Thora (11) J: Jack Hill (57kg) T: Brent Stanley
14. Wit (2) J: Melissa Julius (56kg) T: R G Symons
15. Mister Hay Zee (19) J: Zac Spain (59kg) T: B J Goodwin
16. Hamslette (5) J: Dean Holland (56.5kg) T: Andrew Noblet	5.5	5.5	5.1	6
17. Tiny Rebel (13) J: Harry Coffey (58kg) T: A R Coffey
18. Not Alone (9) J: Ms Rose Pearson (60.5kg) T: Brent Stanley	7	7	6.5	7
19. Touch Of Paradise (17) J: Jack Hill (57.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
20. A Little Chunky (4) J: Unknown (56kg) T: J Louise & J Frew

Odds Last Updated: November 16, 2020, 12:14am (AEDT)

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.