Racing Tips

Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 1st

Tim Geers previews the eight-race card at Belmont on Wednesday afternoon.

by
Tim Geers
31 August 2021

Midweek racing takes place at Belmont today with eight races on the card.

The track is rated a Soft 5 with rain forecast in Perth, so if anything that may be downgraded but I’m expecting it to stay as is. The rail is out 11m for the entire course.

Tim Geers has previewed the eight-race card in full with his analysis, tips and best bets below.

Best Bet: Race 4 – (2) Ginger Flyer

Best Value: Race 8 – (8) Belafonte Boy & (10) Seminyak

Race 1

Free Entry To Belmont (0Mwly) (1300m)
3:14pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Free Entry To Belmont (0Mwly) (1300m) 3:14pm (AEDT)
1. Black Fantasy (3) J: Joseph Azzopardi (60kg) T: D & B Pearce	7.5	7	7	7.5	7	7
2. Outspoken Lad (2) J: William Pike (60kg) T: D & B Pearce	5	5	6	5.5	4.75	4.8
3. Winning Aces (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: J P Taylor	26	21	21	21	26.5	26
4. Ginger Locks (1) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (59kg) T: B V Watkins	4.8	5	4.8	4.8	4.95	5
5. Kempy Gold (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant	18	16	16	16	18.2	17
6. My Fury (7) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	2	2	1.95	2.05	2.05	2
7. Yemen Lass (5) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: Luke Fernie	20	18	18	17	20	19

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

(4) Ginger Locks was a terrific run in defeat first up after missing the start by 2L. She recorded the fastest final 600m, 400m and 200m of the race. If she jumps with them today and can hold a spot from barrier 1, she’s a good chance. Just needs some luck.

(6) My Fury gets a big jockey change today with Chris Parnham taking over from Chloe Azzopardi. He should suit this horse because it was left very flat-footed last start before charging through the line.

(1) Black Fantasy is one of two Pearce runners on debut and I think he trialled better than the stablemate. Azzopardi rode them both and takes the ride on this one for the race today.

Pike goes on the stablemate (2) Outspoken Lad.

Tip: (4) Ginger Locks $5.00 Ladbrokes

Value: (1) Black Fantasy $6.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 2

Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1200m)
3:49pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1200m) 3:49pm (AEDT)
1. Nitro Fred (4) J: Jason Brown (58kg) T: J P Taylor	3.4	3.4	3.3	3.6	3.45	3.2
2. Warlago (5) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Ms W Miller	51	51	51	41	51	51
3. Big Break (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: Luke Fernie
4. Rulelee (7) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: Vaughn Sigley	6	6	5.5	6	6	5.5
5. Miner Addiction (1) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: Darren Taylor	14	13	11	12	10.8	11
6. Peppi Grove (9) J: Paul Harvey (56kg) T: J E Grieve	18	16	15	15	18.2	15
7. Destructor (6) J: Steven Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham	31	31	34	34	32	34
8. Justamiddy (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham	21	21	26	26	20.5	26
9. Red Fifty Three (8) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55.5kg) T: G & A Williams	2	2	2	2	1.98	2

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

(9) Red Fifty Three has been well-backed on debut today after winning a recent trial in good style. Has jumped well in both trials so expect it to roll forward from the wide gate, but there is a bit of speed drawn inside. Think it’s short enough now at even money.

(1) Nitro Fred was only run down very late on debut and draws to lead again today. Looks the big danger and will be the one they have to run down.

(6) Peppi Grove had no luck on debut, running up backsides under little pressure for the majority of the straight. Harvey keeps the ride today and no surprise to see it go close at odds.

(5) Miner Addicition has trialled very nicely ahead of its return.

Competitive race!

Tip: (9) Red Fifty Three $2.20 Bet365

Value: (5) Miner Addicition $11 & (6) Peppi Grove $15 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 3

Iron Jack Mdn (1200m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Iron Jack Mdn (1200m) 4:24pm (AEDT)
1. Barantian (5) J: Paul Harvey (58kg) T: J F Miller	31	31	26	26	28.5	34
2. Love Drunk Baby (2) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58kg) T: D & B Pearce	4.2	4	4.4	4.6	4.55	4
3. Nobel Prince (6) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58kg) T: D R Harrison	17	16	17	18	14.8	15
4. Pints And Prawns (10) J: Unknown (58kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
5. Comanche Kat (8) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (56kg) T: R W Matthews	41	41	51	41	51	51
6. Birdieagle (9) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham	51	51	41	34	47	51
7. My Conviction (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55.5kg) T: A G Durrant	34	34	34	34	35	41
8. Elusive Dream (1) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: G & A Williams	3.2	3.2	2.9	2.9	2.8	3.2
9. Zadar Rock (7) J: Jason Brown (55.5kg) T: J P Taylor	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.4	4.4	4.2
10. The Lady Is A Vamp (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (53.5kg) T: L P Luciani	4	3.9	4.4	4.4	4.05	3.8

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

Another competitive race. (9) Zadar Rock has trialled very nicely ahead of his debut here, winning the latest one by more than four lengths. Should find the front ad be had to catch, but there is a bit of speed on here.

(10) The Lady Is A Vamp ran well behind the talented Hardly Ever last start and looks ready to peak third up and up in trip to 1200m.

(8) Elusive Dream draws the inside for Pike on debut. Thought the last trial was good, making ground under only a small amount of pressure. Where he gets to from the inside barrier is a query but the speed should suit him.

(2) Love Drunk Baby has trialled well and didn’t get any luck when running 3rd on debut back in November.

Tip: (9) Zadar Rock $3.80 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 4

Salinger Hcp (C3) (1400m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Salinger Hcp (C3) (1400m) 4:59pm (AEDT)
1. Alimentaria (6) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: Ms T Itzstein	8.5	9	11	11	10.2	10
2. Ginger Flyer (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: Simon Miller	3	2.9	2.7	2.8	2.8	2.8
3. Smashing (5) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham	3.2	3.1	3.5	3.6	3.4	3
4. Blue Horse (7) J: Brad Rawiller (57kg) T: A W Maley	7.5	8	7.5	7	7	7.5
5. Southstar (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: A G Durrant	16	16	16	17	15.4	16
6. Jadavi (8) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (56kg) T: I F Shield	51	61	61	61	55	61
7. Verdandi (4) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: V A Brockman	13	14	12	13	12.2	14
8. Stella Fair (2) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: A G Durrant	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.2	6.5

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

(2) Ginger Flyer returned with a dominant win first up last preparation and if she returns in similar fashion, I think she’ll be too good from the front. Gets the premier apprentice aboard and draws nicely.

(3) Smashing relished the big drop in grade last start and it was a super win given the run it endured in the straight. Looked no hope at the 200m but was able to pick up and savage the line to win. Looks an obvious chance.

Tip: (2) Ginger Flyer $2.80 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Ginger Flyer

Race 5

Amelia Park Hcp (C3) (1400m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Amelia Park Hcp (C3) (1400m) 5:35pm (AEDT)
1. Elafella (7) J: Taj Dyson (61.5kg) T: L Smith	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.6	3.25	3.3
2. Run D'affaire Run (1) J: Ms Tyla Becker (59.5kg) T: G C Ballantyne	6	6.5	6	6	5.5	6
3. Call Again (9) J: Ms Lisa Staples (59kg) T: Rhys Radford	7.5	8	7.5	7.5	7.2	7.5
4. Approach (5) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58.5kg) T: Ms A King	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.75	2.5
5. Gorgeous Gus (6) J: Keshaw Dhurun (58kg) T: S & J Casey	13	12	12	12	13.2	12
6. Yulong Earth (4) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: M W Bairstow
7. Rogues Point (2) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (56.5kg) T: M W Bairstow	14	15	16	16	15	17
8. Smoking Barrel (10) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: E S Wake	31	31	34	41	33	34
9. Admiral Promo (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: Sue Olive	17	18	17	17	16	19
10. Wild Galah (8) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 5:36pm (AEDT)

(1) Elafella murdered his opposition last start, galloping about 6L clear mid-race and holding that margin to the line. He goes from W Pike to 4kg apprentice Taj Dyson today though. While it’s a pretty simple ride for the apprentice, it’s a huge jockey change.

(4) Approach was ordinary in his first two runs this campaign but really jumped out of the ground last start, showing he might be back. He’ll get speed on here for sure and that could set it up for him coming from back in the field.

(3) Call Again, (5) Gorgeous Gus and (7) Rogues Point are all each way chances.

Tip: (4) Approach $2.80 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Approach

Race 6

Schweppes (0Mwly) (1000m)
6:10pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Schweppes (0Mwly) (1000m) 6:10pm (AEDT)
1. Guns Of Navarone (1) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: N D Parnham	5	5	5	5	5.2	5
2. Apple Schnapps (2) J: William Pike (59kg) T: L Smith	1.95	1.95	1.95	2	2	1.95
3. Double Jeopardy (6) J: Peter Knuckey (59kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson	31	31	34	34	35	34
4. Cooking With Gas (4) J: Ms Kate Southam (56.5kg) T: Ms S Childs	13	12	13	13	13.2	13
5. Fair Joy (5) J: Ryan Hill (56.5kg) T: Jade Tangaroa	21	26	26	21	20	26
6. Belle Of Liberty (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant	11	11	11	11	10.4	11
7. City Circle (3) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham	7.5	7	7	7	6.6	7
8. Jaguar Grey (8) J: Jason Whiting (54.5kg) T: B V Watkins	11	11	12	12	10	11
9. Nobellity (9) J: Jett Stanley (54.5kg) T: M Santich	46	51	51	51	55	51

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 6:11pm (AEDT)

(1) Guns of Navarone drops back heavily in grade here from a 66+ on a Saturday to a No-Metro-Win on a Wednesday. We see this stable do this regularly with success and they utilise the apprentice claim very well. Draws the inside and can win back in this grade.

(8) Jaguar Grey makes his stable debut for Bruce Watkins and he trialled very well leading into this. If he goes forward he could take plenty of catching – he does have a good first up record.

(2) Apple Schnapps is on the quick backup from Saturday which is ominous with Pike in the saddle.

Tip: (1) Guns Of Navarone $5.50 Bet365

Also Backing: (8) Jaguar Grey $7.50 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Guns Of Navarone, 0.5 units WIN Jaguar Grey

Race 7

Peninsula Dining Room Hcp (C1) (1650m)
6:45pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Peninsula Dining Room Hcp (C1) (1650m) 6:45pm (AEDT)
1. Sir Rachelot (5) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (60.5kg) T: Brett Pope	5.5	5	5.5	5.5	5.3	5
2. Block Of Land (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (60kg) T: C & M Gangemi	8.5	8	8.5	8	7.7	8
3. Dad's Bigheaded (9) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: Fenella Martin	3.4	3.5	3.1	3.2	3.3	3.5
4. Bonjour Noir (11) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59kg) T: F R Kersley	61	61	71	71	73	61
5. Mong Khon (2) J: Brad Rawiller (59kg) T: J N Pateman	8.5	8.5	8.5	8	8.3	8.5
6. Rodomonte (7) J: Jordan Turner (58.5kg) T: C H Webster	51	61	67	61	71	71
7. Tumivet (10) J: Ryan Hill (58.5kg) T: Martin Allan
8. Gallant Ranger (4) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: M L Lane	5	5	5	5	5	5
9. See Ya Champ (1) J: Paul Harvey (56.5kg) T: G C Ballantyne	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.3	4.4
10. Differentiator (8) J: Troy Turner (55kg) T: Greg Cave	35	34	34	34	40	41
11. Taxi (6) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: R C Mcpherson	67	61	61	61	69	51

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 6:46pm (AEDT)

(1) Sir Ratchelot won two starts back and then ran a game 2nd last start when leading and getting run down late. Gets conditions to suit and will be hard to catch again.

(8) Gallant Ranger draws ideally in barrier 4 and keeps Chris Parnham. Has been good in past couple of starts but I wonder if the mile will just find him out.

(9) See Ya Champ has talent and should have more than one career win but her racing pattern leaves her with plenty to do. Where she gets from barrier 1 is a big concern but on her day she has a big finish.

(2) Block Of Land ready to peak third up.

Tip: (1) Sir Ratchelot $5.00 Neds

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 8

Glenroy Chaff Hcp (C1) (1200m)
7:20pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Glenroy Chaff Hcp (C1) (1200m) 7:20pm (AEDT)
1. He's A Sizzler (8) J: Chris Parnham (60.5kg) T: D L Morton
2. Double Demerits (9) J: Paul Harvey (60kg) T: S W Barrass
3. Ginger Mack (6) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: Greg Cave	27	26	26	26	26	26
4. Lord Augustus (1) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: Peter Lynch	6	6	5.5	5.5	5.2	6
5. City Cruiser (4) J: Taj Dyson (57.5kg) T: Russell Stewart	16	16	16	17	17.2	16
6. Just Peachy (10) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57.5kg) T: Tameeka Brown	5	5	5	5	5	5
7. Popcorn Tender (7) J: Brad Rawiller (57.5kg) T: A W Maley	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.95	2.9
8. Belafonte Boy (12) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: D Miller	26	26	21	21	25.5	26
9. Frosty Belle (5) J: Troy Turner (57kg) T: K J Reeves	18	19	18	18	15.2	19
10. Seminyak (13) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57kg) T: Ms S L Miller	21	21	19	19	20	21
11. Domineer (3) J: Steven Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham	13	11	12	14	12.8	11
12. Marlini (11) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (55.5kg) T: Ms D Baillie	7.5	7	7	8	7.6	7
13. All On Black (2) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (54kg) T: P D Tapper	21	21	19	19	19.2	21

Odds Last Updated: September 1, 2021, 7:21pm (AEDT)

(6) Just Peachy was good winning three starts back and was brave again two back. Just overraced when restrained last start and you can probably forgive it for that. Draws slightly awkwardly in barrier 8 today but if it can slot in on speed it will be competitive.

(9) Frosty Belle might be ridden more positively second up today from the good draw, which is what happened when it won second up last preparation.

(8) Belafonte Boy trialled well ahead of his return here. Hard to be confident with a horse like him but he’s big odds in an open race. The same can be said about (10) Seminyak.

(7) Popcorn Tender next best.

Tip: (6) Just Peachy $5.00 TAB

Value: (8) Belafonte Boy $26 Sportsbet & (10) Seminyak $15 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Just Peachy, 0.25 units WIN Belafonte Boy, 0.25 units WIN Seminyak

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.