Canterbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 7th

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

Maiden over the 1550m to kick off the day and I think (1) Yangtze Rapids can finally break through. Has been consistent without being brilliant but first up run last start was encouraging. Ran into a pretty smart one in Jojo Was A Man and now looks ready to win here. Will strip fitter and Jmac should give him a lovely steer from barrier 7. 

(3) Echo Point struck a very heavy track last start and can probably be forgiven on that performance. Should enjoy the conditions today and will be the one they need to get past with Tim Clark on board. 

(5) Appolate sparks some interest on the quick backup. Was seen last Thursday flashing home in a Gosford maiden over 1600m. Has strung together three straight placings and looks close to breaking through and can run a race at an EW price. 

The chances probably don’t end there so treading carefully in the opener.

Tip: (1) Yangtze Rapids $2.35 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Yangtze Rapids

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 1:31pm (AEDT)

Plenty of unknowns here with only 1 of the 11 in the field having had more than one career start. Going to side with one of the debutants in (13) Billiondollarbaby who has shown ability in recent trials. Has won her latest two trials leading into this impressively, gets the services of Mcevoy and am expecting a big showing from her on debut here. 

(11) Port Louis is the current and deserved favourite after a good debut performance, finishing a narrow 3rd on a heavy Kensington track. Can only improve off that performance and the jump to 1200m looks ideal. Think Bowman can give her a nice run from the low draw and will be fighting out the finish for sure. 

Thought (14) Mascherata was the horse over the odds after she clearly didn’t love the wet track on debut. O’Shea puts the blinkers on here 2nd up and I think she will be a massive improver above the ground. Worth a speck at a big price.

Tip: (13) Billiondollarbaby $4.85 Sportsbetting

Value: (14) Mascherata $18/$4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Billiondollarbaby, 0.5 units EW Mascherata

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

(8) Siege couldn’t have been more impressive on debut where she was caught 4 wide the trip and still kept finding to record a 1L win back in February. She beat home (5) Zain’s Girl that day who has since come out and won it’s maiden so the form looks good. Given a very quite trial in the lead up this and looks a smart horse. Should enjoy a much nicer run today from barrier 1 and if she’s taken any improvement since her debut, will be hard to beat. 

(2) Onchao could get the job done fresh from a spell. Showed good promise in his debut prep finishing with two strong wins and seemed to only get better with race experience. The wide gate is a slight concern but should be able to get across early and go forward in the run. Is a winner over this trip and his recent trial was solid behind Intrepidacious. 

(4) Green Flash another impressive debut winner where he started a very short favourite and was too good over 1200m at Newcastle. He and the 2nd horse put a gap on the rest of the field and clearly has plenty of scope to improve. Jmac sticks and could easily make it 2/2. 

Obviously a stack of chances and one of the stronger midweek Bm66 races you’ll see for a while so playing conservatively. 

Tip: (8) Siege $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Siege

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

(5) Fashchanel looks pretty hard to beat here dropping back in grade after a disappointing run as favourite in a strong bm78. She has since trialled very well behind Poland and crossed the line with recent Group 2 winner Signore Fox. Her close 2nd to Harmony Rose two back looks extremely good form for this and expecting her to be right in the finish today with Jmac riding from a nice gate. 

Don’t mind the EW chances of the resuming (2) Willowheart also. Has run in some handy races and performed well , especially early in her career. Love the booking of Campbell Rawiller to take 3kg off and should give them something to chase from barrier 1. 2 wins from 3 1st up runs and a recent trial win ahead of The Grinder and Pesto tells me she is ready to fire fresh. Looks a good chance at an EW price. 

(6) Grande Rumore is a UK import having her first Australian start. Will probably want further but definitely worth monitoring any market support for her and can run well. 

Tip: (5) Fashchanel $3.30 Ladbrokes

Value: (2) Willowheart $7.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Fashchanel, 0.5 units WIN Willowheart

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Again, another open and competitive race to start the quaddie. (6) Dalaalaat has been flying since joining Nathan Doyle’s stable and I think he looks a good chance here. Dominant win fresh then solid in QLD before regaining some form with a very good run last start at Warwick Farm. Was well supported in betting before being held up at a crucial stage round the bend while the winner had pinched a break. They gapped the rest of the field and I’m keen to forgive him on that and be with him here at an EW price. 

(3) Jailbreak will have his supporters with Cam Rawiller taking 3kg off and will be up on the speed and take some catching. His win two back over Phemenoe and Exceltic was tough before being rolled a short priced favourite at Coonamble. Will be fitter for that and looks ready to peak 3rd up from a spell. 

(4) Nerone was impressive first up after being gelded and can give this a shake. Will have to lug 60kg but gets the services of Bowman and 2nd up record is good. 

(7) Shibli is a French import making his local debut for Waller. Hasn’t raced for over 12 months which is a slight concern but is first up as a gelding and has trialled okay in the lead up. Watch the market. 

Tip: (6) Dalaalaat $8.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Dalaalaat

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

(6) Mr Gee showed plenty of ability in his debut prep winning 2 races and placing in 3 others. Has trialled well in the lead up to this and expecting him to only improve in his second prep. Ran 2nd in his only start at this track and trip.

(11) Nicci’s Fling looks ready to win. Has been running extremely well this prep without being able to break through. Finished 2nd on a heavy track at Randwick last start behind Kiku in a similar race to this and now steps up in trip. Jmac jumps aboard today and she will give this a good shake. 

(5) Travest just hasn’t been able to regain his early career form having not run a place his last five starts. Admittedly has had excuses and finally draws a good gate. Can be a big improver. 

Little confidence here so not having a bet but Mr Gee looks he looks as good a chance as any in the race.

Tip: (6) Mr Gee $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (4) Lina’s Hero here who comes out of a hot form race at Rosehill a few Saturday’s ago. The horses who beat him that day – Yao Dash and Starspangled Rodeo have both come out and won good races last weekend at Rosehill. Yao Dash is now currently 3rd favourite for Saturday’s Doncaster Mile. That form is as good as you’ll get for a race like this and a repeat close to that performance makes him extremely hard to beat. Is now ready to peak 3rd up since arriving in Aus from HK and the current $3.70 looks a great price and thinking he starts much shorter.

(10) Saigon is flying and looks another good chance today. Only narrowly beaten by well regarded The Irishman last start and now steps up to one of her pet distances. Has won 3rd up in the past and will be in the finish. 

(5) Luncies brings winning form to Australia and will make his local debut for Kris Lees. Two wins from three starts fresh shows he can run well here but not sure what to make of the trials. 

Tip: (4) Lina's Hero $3.70 TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Lina's Hero

Odds Last Updated: April 7, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

Probably the race of the day to round out the card with some quality horses facing off. Thinking (11) Mr Mosaic can take some catching carrying only 52kg after the claim. Was electric fresh, going straight to the lead and not looking like getting caught. Will look to do something similar here with the light weight. Admittedly it’s a step up in grade now which he has to cope with but at the price I am keen to find out. 

(3) Lost And Running is the obvious danger and well deserved favourite but not too keen to take the shorts about him in his toughest race to date. Clearly is probably the most talented horse in this race but taking him on at the price. 

(1) Adelong was going to be a value play in the race but has been saved for another day, leaving us with Mr Mosaic as the sole bet to knock off the favourite.

Tip: (11) Mr Mosaic $5.60 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mr Mosaic