Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, April 10th

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

(2) Cheerful Legend does look the horse to beat in the opener. He was too good at The Valley over 1200m two back and was solid last start over 1400m behind Lightsaber in the VRC Sires. The form out of that race has been strong with Saif winning in Sydney last week and the freshen up back to 1200m looks fine.

 

(3) He’s Xceptional was no match for Crystal Bound over 1000m at The Valley but battled on well for 2^nd. The 1200m looks suitable now.

 

(4) Hunnam looks suited up in trip on the quick backup but had every chance last week and was plain in my opinion. He started $3.30 and had no luck in the Crystal Bound race.

 

(8) Taborca was solid in the same race on debut and should improve up in trip.

 

Tip: (2) Cheerful Legend- $3.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Cheerful Legend

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

Good little race. (1) Dollar For Dollar is the class in the race and despite the top weight looks hard to beat in this. He kept battling to the line first up and was only beaten 2.4L by Ancestry, who would be odds on here. Second up last prep he was beaten 0.5L by Zoutori who has won a Newmarket since, and the prep before that he ran 0.4L 3^rd to The Bostonian and Osborne Bulls, beating home Nature Strip in a Doomben 10,000. I like the 2kg claim for Will Price which gets him in with 59kg and I think he’ll take a stack of running down.

 

(6) Simply Optimistic was okay first up, conceding 6kg to the winner at Bendigo. He drops to the minimum weight and did win 2^nd up off 11 weeks last prep. This is obviously harder but he’s a chance.

 

(5) Fabric ran well first up last prep behind How Womantic and looks to get a nice map behind the leaders from barrier 3.

 

(2) Native Soldier is the x factor. He’s been off the scene for a long time but jumped out very well and is talented enough on his day. He was saved from last week to run here but Coffey on seems a strange jockey booking.

 

Pretty keen on Dollar For Dollar- he’s classes above these and will be very hard to catch.

Tip: (1) Dollar For Dollar- $3.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.75 units WIN Dollar For Dollar

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

(1) Superium is now with the Hawkes camp and should appreciate getting onto a dry deck after constantly finding wet tracks in Sydney. Maps well but I’d rather see him first up.

 

(10) Wilmot Pass has been given a let up after two decent efforts. He generally goes better with a run under his belt but would have residual fitness. He’ll get a fair way back from barrier 10.

 

(4) Pravro had no luck in the 955m final at The Valley but was a good winner at Echuca first up. He’s going very well and can perhaps settle closer at 1100m drawn barrier 4.

 

(3) Yulong Storm is undefeated when 3^rd up from a spell and hasn’t had much go his way in two runs this prep. He missed the start behind Pravro at Echuca and got too far back from a wide gate at Bendigo in a stronger race. Newitt jumps back on replacing Madison Lloyd and some of his form last prep gives him a strong hope here.

Tip: (3) Yulong Storm- $18.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Yulong Storm

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

She’s had a few chances, but this does look an ideal race for (9) Garvoc to get another win. She was a good winner first up, luckless from barrier one at The Valley, probably should’ve won at Sandown and was good at Mornington, having to face the breeze for the last 600m while the winner had her back. The form out of that race has been strong with Incredulous Dream running 3^rd to Agreeable last week and Florescent Star knocking off Lindhout on Wednesday. Walker rides these stalking horses quite well and I can see him launching through a gap late with 54kg.

 

(8) Rainbiel hasn’t had much go right this prep- she was a moral beaten first up and did too much work from a wide gate 2^nd up. She was a bit plain last start but that was a fairly strong race. Draws wide again here but that’s generally not a huge concern at Caulfield as opposed to The Valley.

 

(4) Switched was okay first up on a heavy track and did win 2^nd up last prep on a good track. She’s probably better with the sting out but does tie in these, having beaten Macroura last prep (with 1kg less), who just beat Rainbiel at The Valley.

 

(3) Lesage is racing well but comes out of two 955m races and I think she’ll be feeling it late at 1100m.

Tip: (9) Garvoc- $4.20 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Garvoc

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 2:51pm (AEDT)

Siding with (6) Mozzie Monster to turn the tables on the favourite. She was snicked to last at Bendigo from a wide gate and gave the leader too big a head start but flew home late for 2^nd. She was 1100m to 1400m there and looks primed 3^rd up here, drawing better in barrier 6 and getting a positive jockey change with Mcneil replacing Dee.

 

(1) Annavisto won that Bendigo Guineas and will be hard to beat again, although she got everything in her favour that day. She was gifted the lead on a day that was preferable to be on speed, and once Kah got her to settle it was all over. She meets Mozzie Monster 2kg worse and loses Kah, although Zahra is a handy replacement. She should also have a bit more competition for the lead here.

 

(2) South Parade has led all the way in his last three starts and will probably try to cross Annavisto to find the front. He’s absolutely flying and will give a sight again, but this is easily his toughest test yet.

 

(9) Palace Whisper had excuses at Bendigo when pulling up lame and with mucus. She started $7 there (Mozzie Monster $4.80) and drops 1.5kg, meeting Annavisto 5.5kg better at the weights. The win prior was very good beating Agreeable and if there were to be a blowout she wouldn’t surprise.

Tip: (6) Mozzie Monster- $3.70 at TopSport

Value: (9) Palace Whisper- $23.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.25 units WIN Mozzie Monster, 0.25 units WIN Palace Whisper

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

I just can’t see how they beat (1) Liquero here. He was 1600m to 2200m last start in the St Leger Trial and whilst he was given a great ride, he put huge gaps back through the field. He can only be improved off that and only has to concede 1kg to the boys and 3kg to the girls, who he absolutely destroyed last start. Very hard to beat.

 

(2) Reuber had no luck in the St Leger Trial- he was shuffled back when Liquero took off and had nowhere to go. He was okay late but was hardly taking ground off the winner at all and was still beaten nearly 8 lengths.

 

(6) Through Irish Eyes finally broke his maiden when stepping up to 2200m last start on a soft track. The start prior he was no match for Olivia’s Game, who ran 5^th, beaten 7L by Liquero at Bendigo. He’ll stay all day but I can’t have him at $5 on a good surface given that fact.

 

(5) Furioso ran well first up over 1850m and should improve up in trip.

 

Liquero should just win and the even money is a fair price- off what he did last start he’s a $1.60 chance.

Tip: (1) Liquero- $2.00 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Liquero

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

Going to have something on (2) Blenheim Palace who was ticking over nicely in Australia before last start where he had to do a mountain of work. He was outside a good speed early before one took them on and he ended up working to keep that horse out, then settling outside of it and dropping out, as the other two leaders did. The two runs prior behind Defibrillate were good and he finally steps up to 2400m in a race that he can dominate which will suit.

 

(8) Mohican Heights broke through nicely under a beautiful ride from Walker at Mornington. The 2400m won’t be an issue but he will need another good ride from barrier one.

 

(7) Yonkers beat him when they met in Sydney and has since run 4^th in the Mornington Cup which was a very slowly run race. His one go at this T/D was a good win but Stockdale on is a query given he’s riding at 4% for his last 50.

 

(10) Silent Sovereign had been coming along nicely but was just fair in the Albury Cup over 2000m. She boasts a 2^nd to leading Sydney Cup chance Realm Of Flowers over 2500m which is good form.

Tip: (2) Blenheim Palace- $17.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75u E/W Blenheim Palace

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

(2) Grand Promenade deserves favouritism off a good 2^nd first up at Mornington over 2000m. They haven’t wasted their time realising that the horse needs 2000m to be effective and he can only be improved off that effort.

 

Not sure how (8) Wyclif is equal favourite at $4 given he’s been beaten 3.1L and 5.2L in two runs this prep. His overseas form says 2000m should suit, although his only run at the trip here in Australia was awful in a brutally run race. Barrier 3 could be a bit sticky and even with the light weight I think he’s too short here.

 

(7) Vegas Knight beat Grand Promenade at this T/D last prep when leading all the way. They finally sent him forward last start at Sandown, but he was no match for Independent Road, who he meets again here.

 

(6) Miyake was good through the line first up over 1600m and generally goes well 2^nd up, but likely gets a fair way back and they haven’t missed him at $10.

Tip: (2) Grand Promenade- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Grand Promenade

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 5:26pm (AEDT)

The obvious finish is (5) Platoon who looks very hard to beat on paper coming off a very good run in the Golden Mile when back and wide behind Ironclad. He faces a different set up here from barrier 2 and will need luck, but if he gets it he’ll probably win.

 

(7) Plein Ciel was plain first up but has an excellent 2^nd up record. Goes Kah to Moor which is a negative but he should improve.

 

(6) Inverloch stuck on okay in the Golden Mile and should be improved. He’ll be better over 2000m+ but should be fitter coming out of that fast race.

 

(1) Al Galayel has the class and has won fresh but barrier one looks sticky with Riordan on, and he does still generally improve later.

 

Platoon hard to beat, but I don’t think he’s unbeatable if he finds bad luck from 2. Should probably be even money regardless though.

 

Tip: (5) Platoon- $2.30 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Platoon