Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, April 10th

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 11:36am (AEDT)

Tricky race for the two-year-olds to kick things off.

(5) Best Side led and was run down late to be beaten 0.5L on debut on the Kensington track. Interestingly, James McDonald keeps the ride on the Waller colt. I suspect we’ll see him improve off that and at double figure odds he’s worth a bet.

(8) Vandoula Lass won on debut in Melbourne and then was beaten 0.2L by Rocket Tiger at her second start here at Randwick. Comes into this fresh with no trial and Craig Williams gets back on board – he rode her to victory on debut.

(11) Bahama is the stablemate of Vandoula Lass and comes here on debut. Has trialled well and can be competitive.

Tip: (5) Best Side $11 Bet365

Also Backing: (8) Vandoula Lass $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Best Side, 0.5 units WIN Vandoula Lass

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 12:11pm (AEDT)

(2) Wheelhouse drops back to the mile today and back to a Group 3 after racing in Group 1 company his past two. Most recent winners of this race have come out of Group 1 races so I’ll side with his quality to get him over the line.

(8) High Supremacy gets JMac on, who jumps off a last-start Waller winner to ride. At this stage last prep he ran 3^rd in a Group 3 so expect him to be peaking for this and the jockey booking suggests he’s ready.

(12) Kiku has been dominant in two starts this prep. Does step up sharply in grade but can measure up.

(4) The Irishman has been good in two Australian starts.

Tip: (2) Wheelhouse $4.60 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (8) High Supremacy $8.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Wheelhouse, 0.5 units WIN High Supremacy

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

Not much interest in the Country Championships Final.

Will side with the favourite (3) Art Cadeau on top who has never finished out of the top two from 10 career starts. That includes six runs on wet ground, so conditions will be no issue. He comes up with a good draw and comes into the race off back to back wins so he appears the horse to beat, but I’ll be staying out.

Tip: (3) Art Cadeau $2.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

(4) Easifar won well first up before finishing 4^th last start, where they changed tactics from the first up win. From the inside draw here, they should be able to punch through and lead or at least sit right on speed. She has a dominant win to her name on heavy ground so the conditions are no issue and at double figure odds, she looks a reasonable chance.

Tip: (4) Easifar $11 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Easifar

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

Literally couldn’t make a case for anything here.

(7) Miss Sentimental might be ready to run a race. She’s had three runs back from a spell now and the last one was a bit inconclusive, held up most of the straight. Now gets up to 2600m at her fourth run back and could have a bit to offer.

(11) Selino could be a similar case. Is from the same stable as Miss Sentimental, gets in light and draws well.

(10) Rondinella isn’t hopeless, while (6) Sacramento is always around the mark.

Tip: (7) Miss Sentimental $26 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 2:31pm (AEDT)

The first Group 1 on the card is the Sires’ Produce, where I’ve made (1) Anamoe my best bet of the day. He’s been enormous in defeat in both the Blue Diamond and the Golden Slipper. His finishing burst in the Slipper was beastly, and if he lands just a pair further forward today he wins, provided he can reproduce that level of performance. The query is this might be his third ‘grand final’ as such, but if he’s able to replicate his last run, surely he’s the one to beat.

(8) Four Moves Ahead sat three-wide the trip in the Slipper and still battled on well for 4^th. She draws much better in barrier 2 today so that won’t be an issue and her only start on heavy ground was a dominant win. She should be around the mark.

(6) Hilal has had everything go against him in his past few starts – poor rides, unsuitable race tempos and race shapes. He draws sticky again today in barrier 10 but he’s got a big finish on him.

(4) Tiger Of Malay was a great run in defeat last start behind Shaquero. Has been saved for this race and a win wouldn’t surprise, but some query over the form out of that Pago Pago.

Tip: (1) Anamoe $1.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Anamoe

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Very tricky Australian Derby. (16) Montefilia is favourite here and looked primed for a big run, but just one filly has won this race in the past 20 years.

The New Zealand form tends to hold strong in this race, so I’ll be having something on the NZ Derby winner (2) Rocket Spade at double figures. He won the Derby over 2400m two starts ago before dropping back to 1600m last start and winning easily. He’s won four from six on soft ground and even though the form out of that Derby has been very suspect, I’ll be on him at the price.

(5) The Frontman ran 3^rd in the NZ Derby and started $5.00 in the Tulloch Stakes last weekend. The Tulloch has a very good record of producing the winners of this race. He travelled into that race very strongly but found little when he had to shove out of a gap. On the quick back-up here, back onto a soft track, I’ll stick with him at 6x the price he was last weekend.

(1) Lion’s Roar and (3) Sky Lab next best.

Tip: (2) Rocket Spade $12 Sportsbet

Value: (5) The Frontman $31 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Rocket Spade, 0.5 units WIN The Frontman

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

The TJ shapes as a fascinating sprint. I’m sticking with (3) Eduardo who got the measure of Nature Strip first up before belting his rivals in The Galaxy last start. He’s returned in supreme form this prep and he’s also won five out of his six starts on rain-affected ground. I don’t think he should be a bigger price than Nature Strip here.

(2) Nature Strip can probably kick up to hold the lead on the inside here, compared to sitting off the rail last start, which may have played a part in his defeat. He looked to have the race parcelled up but was run down right on the line by Eduardo. Third up, he could blow these away but I’d rather be with Eduardo.

(1) Bivouac probably sits behind the speed of the front two. He’s maybe been ridden slightly off this prep but won’t be with Hugh Bowman on from barrier 2. The heavy track must be a big query though.

I think the big blowout in the race could be (6) Dirty Work at $41. He was luckless in defeat first up in the Oakleigh Plate where he was only beaten 0.5L. He was then beaten 6L by Eduardo and Nature Strip but he had absolutely no luck and definitely should have finished closer.

Tip: (3) Eduardo $4.40 Sportsbet

Value: (6) Dirty Work $41 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Eduardo, 0.25 units WIN Dirty Work

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

The Doncaster is always a wide open race. I’ll be playing four horses.

(1) Mugatoo comes off a win in the All-Star Mile on a bog track. He’s won two of his three starts when third up, has won his only start at the track and distance, and relishes wet tracks. He carries equal top weight but I don’t think it’s a race that’s out of his grasp this year.

(2) Avilius isn’t a horse I ever land on, but today I’ve had something on. His two runs this prep have both been terrific and he had no luck at all last start. He probably should have won that race, and he’s undefeated from his two starts on heavy ground. Rider change today with JMac going on, and again, despite carrying top weight, he’s a winning chance.

(9) Aegon disappointed in the Rosehill Guineas, but that was his first go on good ground. Prior to that he was 5/5 and all five starts were on soft tracks. He’s bred by Sacred Falls out of a Zabeel mare so he obviously is bred to swim and should relish his return to wet ground today. Will give him another chance.

Finally, (17) Nettoyer might be being overlooked. She won this race last year on a heavy track, where she carried more weight than she carries in this year’s race. She has a good third up record and at $81, she’s a blowout chance.

Tip: (9) Aegon $13 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Avilius $13 Bet365

Value: (17) Nettoyer $81 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Aegon, 0.5 units WIN Avilius, 0.5 units WIN Mugatoo, 0.25 units WIN Nettoyer

Odds Last Updated: April 10, 2021, 5:11pm (AEDT)

(6) Never Talk arguably should have won a Group 2 two starts ago and then ran an admirable race in the Surround Stakes last start. Drops back from a Group 1 to a Group 3 and is undefeated from two starts on heavy ground.

(13) Perfect Radiance makes its stable debut for Joe Pride and is undefeated first up. Watch the market.

(12) Tudor Music was given a hit out first up and is undefeated second up so don’t be surprised to see more positive tactics today.

Tip: (6) Never Talk $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet