Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, August 14th

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

(5) So You Assume sat handy and bolted in last start at The Valley. She had everything in her favour there but won easily, accounting for a few of her rivals here. She’s drawn out wide but will roll forward and it’s hard to see anything turning the tables.

(1) Lunar Flare is the best horse in the race but is 7 weeks between runs here dropping back from 2000m. Barrier 1 is very tricky if she gets buried, because there could be a couple of leaders falling back in her lap.

(6) Kiss And Cry was the unlucky runner behind So You Assume last start but was still beaten 5.3L and might be better on wet tracks.

(2) Barbie’s Fox finally showed some tactical speed last start and won fairly well, but that was on a heavy track and back to a firm track is a query.

Tip: (5) So You Assume- $3.10 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

(4) Hi Stranger gets a very similar set up to last start where he got a great run and was too good. Barrier 4 is perfect, he should land just off the speed which looks genuine and does look hard to beat.

(5) No Effort didn’t lead as expected last start but still ran well, no match for Hi Stranger late. Back to Caulfield is a big tick, and she meets Hi Stranger 2kg better at the weights, but a good track isn’t ideal.

(2) Dark Dream didn’t show much intent first up behind King Magnus, hitting the line okay. Out to 1600m definitely suits if he can hold a spot from barrier 1.

(7) Ballet Master was awful in Sydney last start, beaten 44L on a heavy track. The win prior at this T/D (where he’s 2/2) was solid in easier grade and he gets in light.

Hi Stranger hard to beat again and the $2.70 with Topsport is a good price.

 

Tip: (4) Hi Stranger- $2.70 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Hi Stranger

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 1:16pm (AEDT)

Going with the proven class in (1) Second Slip who had an outstanding last prep, winning the first 3 races, running 2nd to Night Raid at listed level, then pulling up with EIPH when only beaten 3.15L by Groundswell. He was scratched at the barriers last week after getting loose, but this looks a good race for him and despite the weight, he can sit outside the leader and be hard to run down.

(8) Diamonds Inthe Sky does look the leader on paper. She stuck on well in a swooper’s race first up at Caulfield but I’m not sure how that form stacks up. If the rail is hot she’ll be very hard to beat.

(13) Zesty Belle wasn’t given a great ride in the same race and will get back again here but gets in very light and can definitely win.

If you want a real roughie, (10) Divine Mr Tycoon probably doesn’t deserve to $151. He was awful first up and made no impression, but his form last year wasn’t too bad, winning a bm78 at The Valley over Grandview Avenue and running a solid 4th beaten 1.85L by Gododdin and Leiter in bm80. Might be completely gone but he’s a much better chance than (3) High Cost, who is a far North Queensland non-tab horse!

Tip: (1) Second Slip- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (10) Divine Mr Tycoon- $201/51 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Second Slip, 0.25 units E/W Divine Mr Tycoon

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

Can’t have (3) Bella Nipotina so short, based purely off her record. I know she’s consistent and was very good in Queensland last start, at her first start for Maher/Eustace, but she’s still 1 from 18.

(4) Paul’s Regret has a very good first up record with 2 wins and 2 seconds from 4 starts. First up off 7 weeks last prep she ran 2nd to Laverrod, and the prep before that she ran 2nd to Probabeel. 1100m is perhaps a touch sharp but she maps for a great run and can win.

(2) Absolute Flirt was unlucky last start behind Plaquette and La Mexicana. She finished 2.1L off the winner but barely got a crack at them until the 150m where she had no momentum. She meets the winner 0.5kg worse at the weights, but gets D Lane replacing Kelly’s 3kg claim, so effectively meets her 2.5kg better.

(1) Plaquette got a dream run/ride to win that race under Olly, draws wide here but is going well.

(5) Propelle struggles to win but has been going quite well. She wasn’t far off Absolute Flirt at this T/D three back, and gets in with 53kg. She meets Plaquette 3.5kg better at the weights from last start and wouldn’t completely shock.

Backing a few, trying to get Bella Nipotina beaten, which hasn’t been hard for most of her career.

Tip: (4) Paul’s Regret- $4.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Absolute Flirt- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (5) Propelle- $21.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Paul’s Regret, 0.5 units WIN Absolute Flirt, 0.25 units WIN Propelle

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 2:37pm (AEDT)

(5) Jumbo Ozaki is ready to win. He’s come back in good order this prep off a long break, and probably should’ve beaten King Magnus last start which is good form. Gets an outstanding run on the map, Willo replaces Kersley, today is his day.

(11) Elephant is the query. He’s 4/4 in New Zealand, the latest by 3L at $1.40. No idea how to line it up but draws softly and gets D Lane.

(4) Imperial Lad kicked back to win for us last start and is 2/2 this prep. I think 1400m is his ideal distance so that’s no query, but he does draw wide and that can be hard at this T/D. There isn’t much speed drawn inside and I think he finds the front again which is enough to have him on side at double figures.

Big watch on (13) Mahashakti who put up a picket fence last prep and has plenty of upside

Tip: (5) Jumbo Ozaki- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Imperial Lad- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Jumbo Ozaki, 0.5 units WIN Imperial Lad

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Cracking race to see some very good new season 3yo’s resuming. I do think it’s almost a two horse race. (5) Generation is undefeated from two starts having effectively led all the way in both wins. He destroyed Lina’s Legend and Spinning here, and that form ties in through Gimmie Par who did run 2nd to Ingratiating in the Talindert. Drawn 1 here, he can potentially lead with Kah on and be hard to run down.

(3) Ingratiating is the class of the field. He ran 2nd in a Blue Diamond, 3rd in a Golden Slipper and won at listed level. I think he can take the step to 3 and be a good horse, it’s just how much intent there is first up. His best two runs, in the two group 1’s, he had blinkers on, but he doesn’t have them here. The two Sydney trials have been solid work without being amazing.

(1) General Beau looked a real 1000m 2yo type. He ran 2nd to Ingratiating at $1.50 when that horse was on debut, but won the Blue Diamond preview and prelude, struggling late over 1200m. Interested to see how he’s returned.

(4) Jigsaw ties in with all of these but has showed his hand a bit having already run twice.

Keen on Generation first up with the map- he should be hard to run down and should measure up. Saving Ingratiating on class alone, think one of them wins. With Jigsaw now scratched, even more keen on Generation who gets an easier time on speed.

Tip: (5) Generation- $3.10 at Topsport

Saver: (3) Ingratiating- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3.25 units WIN Generation, 1.25 units WIN Ingratiating

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

Time for the girls and again I think it could be close to a two horse race, but we’re getting a bit more fat. (7) Gimmie Par is the horse to beat, she ran 2nd to Ingratiating on debut down the straight and won in okay fashion here before a spell at $1.55, beating Spinning who then ran 3rd to Generation. I’m confident that form stacks up and drawn 4 here with Kah on she should get her chance.

(4) Najmaty won her first two runs, including a big win here at Caulfield in the Redoute’s. She’s been trialling okay- she was really ridden out but closed well for 2nd in her latest. Might get a fair way back but has the talent.

(11) Sweet Mary is perhaps the one at odds that can threaten. She was off the map in betting last start at The Valley and was caught 3 wide no cover on speed. That was at 1000m and back out in trip will suit. She bolted in over 1200m on debut and draws to either lead or box seat from barrier 2. $19 looks a big price given her $3.10 SP last start.

(1) Arcaded had the runs on the board as a 2yo before failing in the Blue Diamond. Not sure that group of filly’s were much good.

Backing Gimmie Par, small result Najmaty, something on Sweet Mary. 2.5 unit outlay returns us 6 for Gimmie Par, 3.6 for Najmaty, 4.75 for Sweet Mary.

 

Tip: (7) Gimmie Par- $4.00 at Topsport

Also Backing: (4) Najmaty- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Value: (11) Sweet Mary- $19.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Gimmie Par, 0.75 units WIN Najmaty, 0.25 units WIN Sweet Mary

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

Feature of the day is the Group 2 PB Lawrence. Tricky map as well, but I think (2) Streets Of Avalon can get outside the lead or potentially even cross. He’ll have to do a bit of work, but he’s not a horse you can hold up so I’d rather him go at a good tempo. His return in the Bletchingly was very good, just getting nabbed for 2nd, and this has been a target of him at his favourite T/D. Gets his ideal fast conditions, likely a good 3 by now, and is hardest to beat.

There does look genuine tempo and the best closer is definitely (4) Superstorm. Had a strange last prep running over 1100m first up, 1400m 3rd up, then 2000m 3rd up before dropping back to a mile. The first up run was very good when clearly needing further, and he was desperately unlucky in the Rupert Clarke at this T/D. At his best I think he’d win this, it’s just how forward he is. Probably ends up last so track pattern is key but if you can run on, he’ll be steaming home.

(7) Sansom won the lead up in fairly good style, and there was expected improvement. I think Streets Of Avalon can turn the tables at 1400m but he likely lands box seat and will run well.

(6) Red Can Man is at D-Day but does finally strike a genuinely firm track which he might need.

 

Tip: (2) Streets Of Avalon- $3.20 at TopSport

Also Backing: (4) Superstorm- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Streets Of Avalon, 1 unit WIN Superstorm

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 5:12pm (AEDT)

Very interesting race. (7) La Mexicana carried 60kg first up, hit a very short quote in play and just got beaten on the line. She drops to 54kg, loves Caulfield, and handles all track conditions. Barrier 2 is very beneficial, she lobs just behind the leaders and will be hard to beat.

(2) The Inferno creates huge interest. I have no idea what to do with this horse from Singapore who has won 8 from 9 and started $2 or shorter in his last 7 starts. Any horse with that record has to be respected, and I do remember he was respected in the group 1 HK Sprint markets before not running, which is lengths better than any of these horses.

(3) Away Game was given a 10/10 ride by Steph Thornton to find the outside fence at Eagle Farm last start. Consistent mare who will run well again.

(9) Zou Dancer was okay first up with a big weight and can improve.

Backing La Mexicana who gets a lot in her favour, and saving The Inferno just because he’s so unknown.

Tip: (7) La Mexicana- $2.45 at Topsport

Saver: (2) The Inferno- $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN La Mexicana, 0.5 units WIN The Inferno