Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, February 5th

Tricky little opener. (6) Let’s Say Grace has only had the one start in New Zealand but won impressively from the back. The form out of that race seems to have stood up well, although how good it is I’m unsure. She’s jumped out well enough, it’ll just be where she gets to on the map in a race without much tempo.

(4) Minouche was okay behind Jilette last start, chasing steadily to get into 2nd. She’s up to 1400m here which could be okay, although I don’t think that form is particularly strong.

(1) El Patroness is the best horse in the race and has trialled nicely at Geelong under little pressure, beaten home by some group 1 performed horses. She’ll need further than 1400m and has the big weight here so how much intent is shown is a query but she’s got the class.

(5) Throntari is running well but this 3yo fillies form isn’t much good.

Tip: (6) Let’s Say Grace- $4.20 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Let’s Say Grace

(1) Flandersrain makes some each way appeal now 3rd up. She wasn’t suited in a sit and sprint behind the leader last start and should be ready now. 3rd up last prep she worked hard early and was just run down late in a decent bm78. There isn’t much speed here so I hope Will Price is aggressive and finds the front.

(11) Worthily should’ve finished closer at his Australian debut but hit the line well regardless, 3L off Nicolini Vito. The step up to a mile will obviously suit but he does have a tricky map from barrier 2 and will need plenty of luck, likely from worse than midfield or 3 back the fence.

(2) Irish Butterfly didn’t have all that much luck last start over 2000m and ran well. Back to 1600m off a freshen is okay but he’ll get a fair way back and need things to go his way again.

(4) Aesop wasn’t bad at his Aus debut but does stay at the mile and likely needs 2000m+ to show his best. 

Tip: (1) Flandersrain- $10.00/3.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Flandersrain

Think there’s a couple to back here because there are two in the market that aren’t stars. (6) Swelter Magic stepped to a proper staying trip last start and relished it, leading at a fast tempo and proving the superior stayer. He’s still in well at the weights with the 2kg claim and expect from the wide gate he just keeps rolling forward. 

(4) Kings Full is the class dropper that looks well placed at double figures. He got tight for room behind Playoffs and Unique Artist last start and it arguably cost him a placing, beaten under a length. He can box seat from barrier 1 and run well.

(8) Lost Impact bolted in three back at The Valley with the pattern onside. She had every chance behind Swelter Magic at 2500m last start and was beaten 3L. She’s still got a bit of upside but I can’t have her as favourite off that.

(2) Dirty Deeds gets to 2400m for the first time. She was solid in the Kings Full race and a touch unlucky. 

Tip: (6) Swelter Magic- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (4) Kings Full- $15.00/4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Swelter Magic, 0.25/0.5 units E/W Kings Full

(4) Renosu flew home on debut at Caulfield before just being outbobbed down the straight before a spell. Not sure that form is A or even maybe B level 2yo form but he’s professional and has jumped out well. 

(5) Sebonack has also jumped out well for his debut. His first at Flemington he railed through and won nicely under no riding, the second he came off Renosu’s back and couldn’t quite get past him before the line, but did so after the line. There wasn’t much between them.

(3) New Hampshire has won a jumpout in okay fashion and can run well on debut.

Found it tough to split Renosu and Sebonack. The race experience of Renosu is factored into the price, but talent wise there isn’t much between them, if anything Sebonack might end up being a better horse. 

Tip: (5) Sebonack- $4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Good race but a bit tricky to work out with Paulele staying in Sydney, which leaves us with 3 winning chances. (2) Generation has jumped out super for his return, making nice improvement from the first to the second. His Red Anchor win in very fast time when fresh off 7 weeks was good.

(6) Unflinching is 3/3 in his career, all over 1000m at The Valley. He had the pattern in his favour last start but the win rated quite well and he was strong late. Now he has to step up to 1200m in a harder race but he’ll lead again.

I like (5) Marine One as a horse and thought he chased well at 1100m behind In The Boat last start who has bolted in again since. 1200m is another question against an overall better class but he’s fit and racing well. 

(8) Linas Legend is one to watch for further. Can’t see him winning at 1200m but up to 1400/1600m he can run well this prep.

Tip: (2) Generation- $2.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Generation

One at odds that can run well here is (6) Witchfulthinking. She stuck on well first up behind Scorched Earth and has a strong 2nd up record with 3 placings (incl 1 win) from 4 starts. She’ll need a bit of luck from a wide draw to cross early but she’s run well in better races than this. 

(1) Galgani won fresh at a good price when you look at her fresh record. Her 2nd up record isn’t as strong but she has placed 3/4 starts and loves this T/D. She maps for the run of the race and gets in quite well after the claim. 

(7) Divine Diosa likes it here and resumed with a good run behind Nicolini Vito in a fast race. She does have the all important win over I’m Thunderstruck.

(5) Vespertine has flown home at both starts this prep, winning well at the latest. She’s won at 1400m but will get a fair way back here.

Tip: (6) Witchfulthinking- $17.00/4.60 at TAB

Also Backing: (1) Galgani- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Witchfulthinking, 0.5 units WIN Galgani

(4) Holbein won for us here at 1700m two back at listed level leading all the way before sitting behind Starcaster at 2000m last start and sticking on well. Back to 1800m is a positive and he’ll cross and lead here. If there’s any on pace or rails advantage expect him to run a big race.

(10) Desert Icon is the weight dropper on the rise. His run two back at Flemington was good before just being outbobbed late in Sydney. He had his chance there but ran well and the winner is a handy horse. He drops 6kg here, not sure what they do from the gate however.

(2) Ho Ho Khan was too strong for (1) Dark Dream last start, with the latter just beating home Holbein. Ho Ho Khan has a negative jockey switch and Dark Dream has won since. 

Not a big betting race but I do think Holbein sets up well here back in trip. Should lead and he loves to do that at Caulfield. 

Tip: (4) Holbein- $8.00/2.60 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Holbein

There’s one at triple figures that has piqued my interest here. (8) Music Addition had done nothing all prep until last start over 1000m at The Valley where he sat outside noted speedster Yulong Command and stuck on quite well for 3rd despite looking gone mid race. At his best he’d be right in this, having run 2nd to Savatoxl and Ancestry in the past. A tiny spec on him to see if he’s started to turn the corner off last start. 

(6) Gold Spark only had one run last prep but it was a win at this T/D. Since being with Nick Ryan he’s had 5 starts for 3 wins and seems to go very well fresh. 

(4) Zorro’s Dream probably should’ve won that race won by Gold Spark when held up and flashing late. He’s a very consistent horse and 1100m at Caulfield suits. If he can get a nice trail into the race he’ll be finishing well. 

(7) Evening Glory was very good when protesting unsuccessfully against Scorched Earth first up at this T/D. He drops in grade for this and should run well. 

Speccing Music Addition, Gold Spark and Zorro’s Dream at big odds.

Tip: (8) Music Addition- $101/26 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Zorro’s Dream- $21.00/6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Music Addition, 0.25/0.5 units E/W Zorro’s Dream

Very keen (2) Tuvalu who is my best of the day. His win first up was utterly dominant at The Bool, barely getting out of 2nd gear yet going 0.07 seconds within the track record, which he could’ve smashed if he wanted. 2nd up last prep I’m Thunderstruck had to really knuckle down to beat him, and Tuvalu took a sit that day when I think he’s better leading at a good tempo. He draws a bit awkwardly but I think that just ensures a good tempo and Fry will let him roll, meaning nothing else will be able to match him. Surprised we’re getting around even money.

(4) Nicolini Vito is a nice horse and won very well last start over 1400m. This is his first look at the mile but he was strong late in a fast race so expect he should be able to handle it, although this should be strongly run again.

(8) Savannah Cloud had the right run but sprinted well to beat Gentleman Roy last start at a mile. This will be a faster race shape but he’s a progressive horse and maps well. 

(10) Our Destrier is in great form interstate but will need to improve again.

Unfortunately Tuvalu has come out. I’m going to have a small play on Nicolini Vito because I think he should be favourite over Savannah Cloud, who had every favour last start and a strong 1600m is some query.

Tip: (4) Nicolini Vito- $2.90 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Nicolini Vito