Caulfield Racing Tips: Tuesday, January 26th

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

Very difficult start to the day. (2) Aquagirl could improve here. The run first up was average down the straight, but she improved 2^nd up last prep to run 3^rd to Bella Nipotina. The race she’s coming out of looks suspect given Japery bolted in and couldn’t win at Werribee the start before.

 

(4) Rainbiel won two races to kick off last prep before a solid 3^rd in a fairly handy fillies’ race. She maps well but hasn’t beaten a whole lot and I’d rather see how she performs here.

 

(3) Diamonds Inthe Sky has won two on the bounce when leading. The third the start before behind Dickin Medal is good form too, but she did have a good run last start.

 

The form around (5) Aminatu’s last few starts is good. She wasn’t far off Zesty Belle at Mornington which ties these in nicely. She was given a great ride at The Valley but won nicely over a subsequent winner.

 

Happy to leave this one alone- they’re a very even bunch and I can’t find an angle I’m keen on.

 

Tip: (3) Diamonds Inthe Sky $5.50 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

(7) Takumi has been very good all prep bar a Sandown failure where he pulled up with heart issues. The win at this T/D two back was strong from back in the field, running the race fastest last 400/200m. He was then 3 weeks between runs into Flemington and was only beaten 2.1L by Coolth, which looks the strongest form. He’s still well weighted with 57.5kg and John Allen takes the ride, having won on him two back.

 

(3) Hard ‘n’ Tough the danger. He wasn’t beaten far by Takumi here. He had every chance but was only a length away and backed up the good form with a win at Sandown. The 3kg claimer Mellissa Julius keeps the ride, meaning he meets Takumi 1kg better. He maps well from barrier 3 and with minimal pressure on paper he could get away with this.

 

(1) Doroza won nicely at Flemington last start in a slightly weaker race. The run prior at Pakenham was good and although he hasn’t placed at Caulfield, those runs were as a 3yo.

 

(9) Librate was very good 2^nd up over 1600m but failed last start, coughing post-race. She’s never seen the 2000m but as an older mare could be looking for the trip now, being by So You Think. She can go forward and run an improved race.

 

I think Takumi is a slightly better horse than Hard ‘n’ Tough, based off their last clash, and losing Thornton for Julius is probably a knock, even with the claim. It’s the map that swings me the way of Hard ‘n’ Tough- he should get an easy lead from barrier 3 and can completely dominate the race out in front. With some cheap early sectionals he’ll be hard to get past.

 

Tip: (3) Hard ‘n’ Tough $5.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Hard ‘n’ Tough

 

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

(3) Gulf Of Suez is the interesting horse here resuming from a let up. He could hardly have been more impressive in two Adelaide starts, winning by 3L on debut and 5.8L the next time out. This is obviously much harder, but Zahra has jumped off one with Flemington form to ride. He’ll go forward from barrier 7 and could be too good for these.

 

(7) Bacchanalia could be the value at double figures. The run on debut at Randwick in the Vein Plate was good, getting a long way back but running on for 4^th behind Captivant, with She’s All Class in 3^rd. That filly has won the Wyong MM by 4.8L and run a huge 3^rd in the Gold Coast MM race. Bacchanalia has trialled since, putting up an 8.8L margin at Kembla Grange under a hold. She led the trial there so perhaps they’re positive from barrier 9 here.

 

(2) General Beau was a dominant winner on debut over 900m on debut down the straight and wasn’t beaten far as the $1.50 favourite over 1000m, with a big gap back to 3^rd. Kah sticks with him and he’ll be in the finish.

 

(4) Extreme Warrior ran a good race on debut when hard in the market behind Fake Love when doing a bit wrong. He can definitely improve here and maps well.

 

Tip: (3) Gulf Of Suez $5.00 TAB
Value: (7) Bacchanalia $10.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Gulf Of Suez, 0.5 units WIN Bacchanalia

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

The fillies’ edition of the Preview and it seems much clearer cut. (2) Frost Flowers was very impressive on debut down the straight, sitting handy to the speed and letting down nicely to win by 1.5L, with another 3L back to 3^rd. The win was backed up on the clock with some strong late sectionals. Kah can position her handy from barrier 3 and she really should be proving too strong here.

 

(1) Dosh was incredibly green on debut down the straight but managed to get the bob in. I don’t think the win was as strong as Frost Flowers, and barrier one could be a bit tricky.

 

(10) Viviane is the one that scares me on debut, because the 2^nd to Enthaar in a trial jumps off the page. That filly is the leading 2yo in Australia, and Viviane was solid behind her. Lane rode her in the trial and sticks with her for Ellerton & Zahra which is a strong combo.

 

(7) Duchy Of Savoy has jumped out well for the debut run and gets Willo on.

 

Tip: (2) Frost Flowers $2.40 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Frost Flowers

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

Good race. As the market would suggest, there are only three chances. I thought (6) La Mexicana was short enough as favourite. She’s jumped out very well but personally I don’t think she’s beaten much. If we do get some rain, she will be well suited, and if she gets the dream run through from barrier one, she’ll be hard to beat, but she comes up against two handy mares here.

 

(4) Miss Albania is flying, having led throughout her last three starts. I think she finds the front comfortably again and will be hard to run down. The win last start was very good, going fast early from out wide, burning off Elderflower who has bolted in twice since under a hold, and only needing 200m of riding before easing down on the line. She’s the fit horse who could just be too fast again, although genuine soft ground would be an unknown.

 

(1) Absolute Flirt is the danger. She bolted in first up at Flemington but had absolutely every favour there. She is generally better first up but the 2^nd up record isn’t bad, having run 2^nd to Exhilarates in a Quezette stakes at this T/D in 2019. She’s been a bit hard to trust since then but take out her heavy track form in recent times and she’s right in this. She maps well and gets the coveted 3kg Campbell Rawiller claim, getting down to 57kg.

 

I think Miss Albania could firm here given she’ll lead and is coming off a strong win in fast time at this T/D. La Mexicana I think will get out a touch, and Absolute Flirt could jump closer to $5.00 which seems fair for a saver.

 

Tip: (4) Miss Albania $3.30 Sportsbet

Saver: (1) Absolute Flirt $4.55 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Miss Albania, 0.5 units WIN Absolute Flirt

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

Bunch of very even horses going around again. (4) Morvada brings a different form line, coming through the Chatham Stakes 11 weeks ago, where he ran 2^nd by a nose to Sansom. I think that could be the better form, but the gap between runs is a worry. He’s never done anything first up and whilst this isn’t as long a break, it’s enough to put me off.

(2) Brave Song meets a few of these better at the weights from the main lead up, the Chester Manifold. The run was good, but he did get a cosy time of it.

 

(5) Never Again won the lead up to make it two straight. He goes up 3kg for that win but is an obvious chance again.

 

(6) Viral is on the backup after getting a beautiful run to win last start in a bunched finish. He steps out of benchmark grade but does get down to 55kg. Even still, $3.50 looks short.

 

(8) Polanco’s run two back behind Vassilator puts him right in this, but he was just plain behind Viral last start. He gets a weight swing and Kah on, but he doesn’t win often.

 

If Morvada was 2^nd up at 1400m I’d be keen, but the first up record is enough to worry me out at $5.00- no bet here.

 

Tip: (8) Polanco $9.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

(9) All Banter is the early favourite and looks too short in my opinion. He’s coming off two straight wins, the latest a nice win at The Valley, but he got every favour controlling the race outside the lead, and this is much harder. The win prior was a 0.3L win in a 4 horse bm64 in Adelaide, which isn’t good enough for this.

 

(3) Shamino looks a good bet. He didn’t do much last start, which was 6 weeks ago, but he’s better suited around a bend with Kah back on. The Doveton Stakes win at Sandown prior was very good, bursting through a gap to win by 1.5L in a very similar class of field. Soft ground will be no issue, he’s won 50% of his races at 1000m and Stokes can get one to win fresh.

 

Not sure what to do with (1) Prezado. The run first up was solid at The Valley, and as expected he improved sharply down the straight behind Fabergino with 62kg. Last start he did nothing, again behind Fabergino, beaten 4.7L into 7^th. He’s never placed at Caulfield and coming off such a poor run at his pet T/D, I’m against here.

 

(2) Bons Away is the ultimate number but wasn’t bad first up behind Fabergino. He sat handy and went okay, still comfortably beating Prezado home. The Caulfield 1000m is probably his best T/D, with a win and a third from 3 starts. He won this race last year, and the third in a Caulfield Sprint at group 2 level was good.

 

Plenty of other chances, but I’ll be backing Shamino and Bons Away.

 

Tip: (3) Shamino $5.50 Sportsbet

Value: (2) Bons Away $17.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Shamino, 0.5 units WIN Bons Away

 

 

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

Tough race to finish. Once again (1) Heart Of Puissance has accepted, and if he finally runs, he makes the race very difficult to assess. He’s easily the most talented horse here, but the myriad of scratchings and gear changes don’t suggest he’s 100% and will be winning first up.

 

If (5) Regardsmaree had drawn a gate I’d be very keen, but barrier 14 likely means he’ll get a fair way back. The win at Bendigo was strong, and the run here last start was very good behind Rule The World and Grinzinger Allee, when getting back and running on. That form is very strong with Grinzinger Allee and King Magnus winning since. If there’s pace on and he can get a trail into the race, I think he’ll win, but the barrier stops me from being keen.

 

(2) Muswellbrook is going better than the 4^th and 7^th placings to start the prep would suggest. He should be peaking 3^rd up and can win this.

 

(9) Dirty Deeds didn’t do much first up but can improve, although most of his winning form last prep was on wet ground, and he’s yet to run a place from 4 attempts on good tracks.

 

Something small on Regardsmaree to end the day because he’s coming out of the best race, but he could be a real flashing light late. Watch the track pattern for confidence.

 

Tip: (5) Regardsmaree $4.20 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Regardsmaree