Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Tuesday, January 26th

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

(13) Jenga is the on top for me here but I don’t have a lot of confidence. I thought she trialled up nicely in her two lead up trials and in her latest trial, she led the entire way and was well held throughout. She is drawn out here so expect her to mimic her trials and head forward which is a positive early at Warwick Farm and for her to make her own luck. She looks to have talent but let’s see what she does on race day.

(8) Day Performer had an okay debut at Nowra but this is much harder. I think she will be much better on top of the ground so maybe we will see a good performance from the good draw.

(12) In Flanders is probably the best of the rest but will be giving the others a start.

Tip: (13) Jenga $3.10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Tip: (13) Jenga $3.10 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

This Charm Spirit mare is over the odds here and I am happy to bet on her at the each-way basis, providing there are no scratchings. (4) Joliette has been consistent this preparation despite not winning. She has been racing in similar grade at both Saturday and Wednesday meetings so once again she should perform well. Being back on top of the ground is a massive plus and dropping back to 1400m with her suits, especially with the blinkers going on first time. She should be able to secure a good position from the ideal barrier and will be right there in the finish. At this stage she is an each-way bet, but the bet will change to just a win bet if we lose any other runners.

(2) Margie Bee has been in great form and only knows one way to go. She was outclassed two back in the Provincial Summer final at Wyong before getting back on top of the ground at Warwick Farm and leading the entire way to salute nicely. She stays at this track and distance whilst staying in the same grade though because of this she will have to carry 2kg more. Catch her if you can.

(1) More Prophets is coming back in grade and gets Hugh Bowman back aboard. She was only fair in her last start effort in Saturday grade and will appreciate running in this type of race.

Tip: (4) Joliette $7.50 Bet365 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Joliette B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

I am willing to back that (6) Nikohli Beagle makes the step up in grade here and I am hoping that judgement is right. The Nicconi gelding is going for four wins in a row after three dominating displays this preparation. In his latest race at Nowra, he stepped up from a class 1 to class 3 and carried 59.5kg and still managed to salute by 2 lengths on the soft going. He gets a positive being back on top of the ground here and gets to tackle 1200m once again. He won’t have to do a lot from the draw and will be put in the ideal position by regular jockey Jess Taylor.

(7) Barossa Rosa won nicely last start at Canterbury, beating home a flying Latin Lyric, who has since performed well. She is on top of the ground for the first time and drops 3kg from her last run, though she is stepping up from maiden grade to a benchmark 72, which is no easy feat.

(1) He’s A Hotshot was unlucky last start after being caught wide without cover throughout. He remains on top of the ground, which is a positive, gains Josh Parr and drops back from a benchmark 78. He is drawn ideally but he has been up a while, so let’s see how he goes.

Tip: (6) Nikohli Beagle $5.60 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Nikohli Beagle B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

(4) Macleay looks the one here in a challenging race over the mile. Two back over 1350m, he got back a bit too far and hit the line nicely, finishing 1.2 lengths back in fourth. They then stepped him up in grade and into a Saturday benchmark 72 where he once again hit the line nicely to finish 1.8 lengths off Zing and 0.8 length off Lando Bay. I like the step back to the midweek benchmark 64 but staying at a mile, especially in this race which has plenty of pace to bring him into the race. The weight won’t be an issue as he has carried similar weights in the past and he will be in the right part of the track when entering the straight.

(2) Ahso was impressive on debut but this is a big step up in both grade and distance second-up. He looks a classy type, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he can do it, but I think he has too much against him especially with 61kg. He will be in the race a long way though.

(10) Zudin is a well-bred colt out of Redoute’s Choice who will get his chance to have a crack at a good track for the first time. He can sit anywhere he pleases from the barrier and James McDonald takes the ride which gives me an inkling they have bigger plans for him down the track, but I could be wrong. Think he is spot on for his second go at the mile.

Tip: (4) Macleay $5.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Macleay B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

I don’t mind (6) Major Time at good each-way odds to give a good sight in this sprinting affair. The Epaulette gelding has only finished outside the top 3 once in ten starts at the 1000m, with that being his debut run 2 years ago. He was well backed last start before going down by half a length against rival (4) Affinity Beyond. He meets her 1.5kg better off at the weights and she is drawn poorly yet she is $5.50, and our bloke is currently around $13! There is a little bit of pace, so as long as Louise Day doesn’t get into a speed battle, I think he is a very good chance. As I have done earlier, this will be an each-way bet but will be changed to a win bet if we lose a runner and go into a no third dividend.

I thought (1) Calipari was very brave first-up and will come on nicely for the run. Gets a 3kg claim which brings him down to 57kg and is well over the current odds.

(2) Our Bellagio Miss is another who gets a 3kg claim and is coming back from a Saturday grade loss to De Grawin. She also drops to a benchmark 72 which is going to help her claims and she is fighting fit, so expect another bold run

Tip: (6) Major Time $13.00 Palmerbet E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit EACH WAY Major Time B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

This is the feature of the day and it’s not an easy one to assess. (2) Wolfe lands on top for me here are two solid runs on return. He resumed over 2000m and was very game, finishing 3.7 lengths back in fourth behind Greysful Glamour whilst beating home some decent 2000m+ horses. He then stayed at 2000m and was beaten in the shadows of the post by the promising Spirit Ridge, running second despite carrying 2.5kg more then the winner and up to 4.5kg against the rest. He will be fit and ready here third up as he steps up to 2400m and is drawn to do no work to get to the lead. He is weighted better then some of his rivals, so I expect Tim Clark to dictate this race and run his rivals into the ground.

(3) Primitivo is one I respect coming back from his last start failure at the Gold Coast. He is one of the rivals to our top pick who is actually weighted nicely and drawn well. I expect him to get into a nice position throughout and be hitting the line well.

(9) Skymax is a progressive stayer and will need to step up to win this. He is definitely a chance but would rather watch him go around.

Tip: (2) Wolfe $3.85 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Wolfe B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

I rate this Fastnet Rock gelding and I think he can make it win number three today. (3) Stormy Rock has been nothing but impressive this preparation and I think they have finally figured him out. He was brilliant on debut at Newcastle, coming from well back to salute by less than half a length before heading to town for a midweek meeting. At Warwick Farm over 1300m, he come down the straight with a massive run with the winner Blondeau, only to be beaten on the line despite running wide without cover throughout. I think he gets in a similar position with cover and be very hard to beat.

The well placed (2) Invasion Day steps back to 1400m and gets a good track where he is much better suited. Nash Rawiller back aboard gives him a good chance and from a nice draw, I think he can be right in the finish.

(1) Exceltic is going to get back from the wide draw but that isn’t going to be such a bad thing this late in the day. He is yet to win at 1400m which is the query and he will need some luck late in the race.

Tip: (3) Stormy Rock $4.25 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Stormy Rock B3TSP