Bunbury Racing Tips: Tuesday, January 26th

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

I’ve been dying to see (1) Success Play back at the track and he lines up here in the first. I backed him on debut at Ascot in the Crystal Slipper Stakes at about 30/1, and he was the clear run of the race. He drew wide that day and came from last to run 4^th, beaten 2.25L. He ran the quickest final 200m, 400m and 600m of the race, and was one of only two horses to break 12 seconds for the final furlong. He’s had nine weeks off since that run but has been back to the trials, where he looked terrific, settling up on speed and going to the line under a stranglehold. Chris Parnham stays on and if he lands on speed here, he should be incredibly hard to run down.

(5) Hoi An ran 3^rd on debut behind Sniparoochy and Ex Sport Man at huge odds. The Roy Rogers team is absolutely flying at the moment, striking at 25% this month from 40 starters, including six winners at Albany a couple weeks ago and a metro double last weekend. William Pike is booked to ride here and no doubt will be right in the race. With that said, I think the market has it wrong here with him at $2.10 and Success Play at $2.70. I think Success Play should be favourite so happy to be against Hoi An at the odds.

(7) Kelly’s Lassie won her trial nicely but the horse she beat then ran 8^th of 10 in town last weekend. Might just bump into one or two smart ones here.

Tip: (1) Success Play $2.70 Bet365

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Success Play

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

This is a very low 2200m maiden but (3) Dancing Jack looks extremely hard to beat. He’s had three runs back from a 96-week spell now, and he’s shown significant improvement with each run. Now he gets a huge jockey change with William Pike replacing the likes of Holly Watson and Beaux Banovic-Edwards. The step up from 1850m to 2200m also looks suitable. Drawn well, may be able to sit a touch closer, the stable is firing and he doesn’t face much competition here.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see sharp improvement from (7) Out The Friar at $23. He was beaten 11.5L first up over 1400m, but now steps up sharply in distance to 2200m. It may well be that he just needs the extra ground, and I don’t have much concern about his fitness being from this stable. He might also just be slow, but at that price it doesn’t cost much to find out.

(1) Glenaureen placed in four consecutive races prior to failing last start, while (6) Rip And Snip can be thereabouts.

Tip: (3) Dancing Jack $2.70 Palmerbet

Value: (7) Out The Friar $23/$4.40 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Dancing Jack, 0.25 units E/W Out The Friar

Odds Last Updated: February 12, 2021, 11:46am (AEDT)

This is the one race I’ll probably be staying out of. (4) Seven Kingdoms could blow these away on the back of an outstanding trial, but $2.10 is well and truly short enough. He didn’t exactly set the world alight in his first preparation, but his recent trial did look ominous. Will have to sit and watch today at that price.

(1) Paddy’s Art was only run down in the final stride by What About Moi at Pinjarra on debut and should be able to take up a prominent position again here. Will take plenty of running down.

(3) Pro Is Here was a big run last start when I was on at about $16. Should follow Paddy’s Art across from barrier 8 and is capable of running a big race again.

Tip: (1) Paddy’s Art $4.60 Sportsbet

Value: (3) Pro Is Here $9.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 2, 2021, 7:36pm (AEDT)

The favourite (4) Zeewijk gets a big drop in class here, back to maiden grade after contesting two 3YO Plate races in Saturday grade, but is that enough for him to win this? And is it enough for him to be a $3.30 chance? Maybe, but you can leave me out of that price.

(9) Trade War represents the strong Michael Lane/Chris Parnham combination and at $13, I think he’s a decent each way bet. He’s run 4^th in two trials; the first one he led and wasn’t fully extended in the straight, while he sat wide throughout in the second trial and still made ground. He’s drawn poorly but hoping Chris Parnham takes him forward from that gate, and he can be competitive.

(3) Blue Cheyenne is another that looks a juicy price at $19. He ran midfield behind Dash Doll first up after settling last, and then didn’t get a great deal of luck at Mt Barker last start. Awkward draw but looks a touch over the odds.

(8) Steel’s The Deel can be a major player on debut, but I have a query on the stable’s form at the moment and if he jumps slow from barrier 1, he’s going to find it hard.

(5) Freedomofthepress next best.

Tip: (9) Trade War $13/$3.70 Bet365

Value: (3) Blue Cheyenne $19/$4.80 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Trade War, 0.25 units E/W Blue Cheyenne

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

Once again, I can’t get the favourite as short as it currently stands. That’s currently (7) Betoken at $3.10, who comes into this off consecutive 2^nd placings here at Bunbury. She’s had every chance in those two races – the pattern was well in her favour two starts back, and she was then beaten 3.5L last start, so I think she’s worth risking at that quote.

(1) There’s A Chance is first up for a new stable today, having placed in just two of eight career starts for the Giadresco team. Darren Taylor takes over now and I thought his trial was exceptional, making very solid ground under a little bit of pressure. Shaun O’Donnell takes the ride and he’s got four winners from nine rides for the stable. Drawn 3, I’m really keen to back him here with $5.00 available. Just hoping he doesn’t get too far back on a track that can play to on-pacers.

The other horse in the race I’ll be backing is (9) Zingano who comes into this first up with no trial for the Lindsey Smith team. They do this with a great deal of success. She was beaten less than a length at Northam last time we saw her and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see her win this fresh. Drawn well.

(4) Seminyak is another that resumes with no trial and Pike booked, so I would think he will remain firm in betting.

Tip: (1) There’s A Chance $5.00 Sportsbet

Also backing: (9) Zingano $4.45 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN There’s A Chance, 1 unit WIN Zingano

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

(4) Our Boy Dylan resumed with a strong win over this track and distance three weeks ago and looks hard to beat again off that. He box seated on that occasion and should find a similar position today with William Pike taking over for the injured Brad Rawiller. He showed plenty of talent as a 2YO but didn’t replicate that last prep, however his return indicates he’s come back a better horse. He can go on with it today.

(3) Classic Chant was good first up despite being three-wide the trip, and she was once again caught wide last start. That’s a decent form race behind the likes of Leica Jaguar and Excellent Dream, so if she can get a better run in transit today, she would have to be a big chance.

(2) Cuballing is already a winner in this class and returned with a good 3^rd first up in town behind Wilchino. Those Westspeed Platinum races can be a bit tricky to line up but on his best form, he should be very competitive. He stepped slowly first up so he would be in a bit of trouble if that were to be the case again, but it may just have been a case of lacking match practice.

(3) Classic Chant was good first up despite being three-wide the trip, and she was once again caught wide last start. That’s a decent form race behind the likes of Leica Jaguar and Excellent Dream, so if she can get a better run in transit today, she would have to be a big chance at each way odds.

(8) Miss Aligned can be included at big odds.

Tip: (4) Our Boy Dylan $4.20 TAB

Value: (3) Classic Chant $7.60 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Our Boy Dylan, 0.5 units WIN Classic Chant

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (5) Castillo Del Lago first up here. He was a huge set up job first up last prep, when backed from $16 into $5.50 in the space of about 2 minutes before the race. He duly obliged, bolting in by 3.8L. That was only a maiden at Northam, but if he showed up in similar form to that, he’d be giving this a very big shake. Tackles 1400m today like he did last prep so he should be ready to go with two trials under the belt.

(9) Fiery Bay was a big run in defeat first up, but he atoned for that with a good win at Pinjarra last start, coming from back in the field to sweep home down the outside. Steps up in class today but he looks progressive and with the good draw, he might be able to settle a touch closer in running. Should be in the finish.

Will keep it pretty simple and back Castillo Del Lago and save Fiery Bay.

Tip: (5) Castillo Del Lago $3.50 Bet365

Saver: (9) Fiery Bay $4.80 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Castillo Del Lago, 0.5 units WIN Fiery Bay

Odds Last Updated: January 27, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

I know (4) Tradensia has a great record over the Bunbury 1400m, but I can’t get her as short as $3.00 here. She has three wins and a 2^nd from four starts at the distance and she should get absolutely every chance from barrier 4, but she gets a negative jockey switch with 3kg claimer Angie Johnston taking over from Kyra Yuill (albeit Yuill did go for home very early last start). Going to play around her with a few at better odds.

(1) Fa’lion Machine was a big run first up at big odds at Ascot, coming from back in the field to run 3^rd behind Excellent Dream. She has never won from eight starts when first up from a spell but she has a very good second up record, with two wins and two placings from five starts. Therefore, you’d think she would improve today and if she does, she will be right in the finish.

(7) Caerhelan is another that can improve second up today, with Chris Parnham booked to ride. She’s never placed from six attempts first up and she was planted four-wide throughout last start, but she has won second up in the past. She has two wins from three starts at this distance and with the good draw, she has the ability to be competitive.

(8) Gifted Warrior represents the in-form Roy Rogers team and won here two starts ago over 1200m. Never placed at this distance which is the query, but this is his first prep with this stable. Draws very awkwardly in barrier 11 which is the negative, but can be thereabouts.

Tip: (1) Fa’lion Machine $9.00/$3.00 Bet365

Also backing: (7) Caerhelan $7.00 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 0.75 units E/W Fa’lion Machine, 0.5 units WIN Caerhelan

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

I really hope today is the day for (2) See Ya Champ, because she is bursting to win a race. Every run this preparation has been full of merit and I was once again on her last start at big odds when she had no luck whatsoever at Ascot. She was held up on the rail for the entire straight and never got a crack at them. She’s back to a Class 1 here and hopefully gets a run at them from barrier 5. Never want to be too far back here at Bunbury so hopefully she’s not near last.

(9) Real Passion was a decent run against the pattern on debut here at Bunbury, and she cracked it for her first win last start at Pinjarra. The horse she beat then came out and won its next start so the form reads well, but barrier 14 makes life tough. She’s likely to be closer to the back of the field than the front.

(6) The Thunderess is racing well, while you have to include the two Roy Rogers runners, (3) Smart Fascinator and (4) Catchya Catchya.

Tip: (2) See Ya Champ $4.85 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN See Ya Champ