Caulfield Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 12th

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 3:42pm (AEDT)

(4) No Diggity looks the one to beat but isn’t really a betting proposition. She won well on debut with a big gap back to 3rd in what rated a solid performance. With the race experience she’ll be hard to beat.

(1) Concentric has jumped out fairly well and draws perfectly but the favourite looks to have his measure. 

Small field, favourite should be winning but she’s short enough.

Tip: (4) No Diggity- $1.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 4:17pm (AEDT)

(4) Video is worth another chance at double figures. He pulled up with a slow recovery two back but jumped out well before his last start effort behind Seguso who is well respected later in the card. He should’ve finished a touch closer there and meets Guardian Spirit 2.5kg better at the weights from their clash. Would’ve preferred a better draw but he’s a good price.

(6) Rusheen hasn’t had much luck this prep and this is much easier than last start behind Clemenceau, where he was given a shocking ride. He’s been well backed early. 

(7) Ghumaama was okay in a slowly run race last start here. Up to 1200m should suit and if she jumps better from the inside he can be right on speed.

(1) Guardian Spirit perhaps didn’t see out 1400m last start but chased well to win at Sandown over 1200m prior. 

Tip: (4) Video- $11.00/3.50 at Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 4:52pm (AEDT)

Very tough bm64. (1) First Division bolted in by 5L first up at Bendigo, leading all the way. The form out of that race isn’t great and she had every chance, going just even for maiden class early, coming home in okay splits. 

(3) Minouche comes off a Beaumont maiden win which is tough to work out. Respect the stable for bringing her over here and the debut run at Gosford on a heavy track has produced some form.

(8) No Crying barely broke maiden benchmark at Moe first up but should improve off that and up in trip. 

Not much between (5) Irish Mist and (2) Jilette from their clash last start but it was difficult to gauge in the blanket finish. 

Tip: (1) First Division- $3.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 5:27pm (AEDT)

(4) Galactus on top here. He returned well at Geelong over 1100m before a complete forgive run last start, getting a long way back and finding all sorts of trouble in the straight, really attacking the line once clear. 3rd up now, up slightly in trip to 1400m, D Lane on and drawn ideally, expect him to lob a bit closer behind a genuine tempo and be hard to beat.

(3) Pal D’oro beat him home last start and did start favourite so no shock to see him favourite again here. He was potentially in the inferior ground in that race but looked to have his chance and was overrun late. Not sure he leads here either but he can box seat.

(10) No Quarantine was just fair in the same race but perhaps didn’t appreciate racing tight. He can get clear air from barrier 8 but might give the favourites a decent head start.

(6) Chase On The Case next best dropping in trip- expect he rolls forward and makes it a genuine tempo. 

Tip: (4) Galactus- $4.20 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Galactus

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 6:03pm (AEDT)

(6) Succeed Indeed looks ready to win here 3rd up. She’s coming out of slowly run races but chased well last start and should be suited by the rise in trip. Where she gets to on the map is the main query.

(2) La Spezia is racing well this prep and had no luck at all last start at The Valley. She maps for a soft run midfield and can atone in a similar race.

(5) Queen Adele has endured wide runs her last two and should be able to get cover here from a middle barrier. She’s very consistent.

(9) Shezadandi can roll forward and is racing well. 

Tip: (6) Succeed Indeed- $14.00 at TopSport

Also Backing: (2) La Spezia- $7.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Succeed Indeed, 0.25 units WIN La Spezia

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 6:32pm (AEDT)

My best bet of the day is (2) Gentleman Roy who should be winning again. He’s come back very well, winning both runs this prep and rating highly. Last start at Flemington he sat 2nd in a race where the leader went 7.4L above average to the 800m but raced away and held them comfortably on the line. There’s already been strong winning form out of that race, the 1600m suits, the draw suits and I think he starts odds on.

(3) Savannah Cloud was no match for Gentleman Roy last start but does get 2.5kg off him. Given the race shape I though Savannah Cloud had the run of the race yet Gentleman Roy still came home stronger. 1600m looks fine off that effort and he can tag the favourite in the run.

(8) Marcolt chased well to win 2nd up at The Valley. He might be looking for a bit further now/

(7) Dundirtcheap was scratched from last week. He’s jumped out well but has had a long break and might need the run.

Tip: (2) Gentleman Roy- $2.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3.5 units WIN Gentleman Roy

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 7:02pm (AEDT)

(9) Tsunami Sam has only had the one start in NZ but won well and that’s turned out to be a very strong maiden. To line it up, he beat Dream Queen easily who won a listed race at The Valley last year. If he runs to that effort he’ll be hard to beat.

(6) Chosen Blonde was very good down the straight two back before going out hard in front and just getting run down late at Morphettville. She drops 4kg from that effort and maps well here back to 1000m, which I think suits her better than 1100m. 

(1) Sweetzou got too far back last start at The Valley but might be able to settle closer here. She does seem to race best fresh but did go well in some stronger races last prep in town.

(3) Big Day Out was unlucky last start in NSW and some of his Victorian form does stack up here, including an unlucky 3rd behind Aminatu at The Valley. Draws okay here, Kelly is riding very well and he’s remarkably consistent. 

Tip: (6) Chosen Blonde- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Big Day Out- $18.00/4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Chosen Blonde, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Big Day Out

Odds Last Updated: January 12, 2022, 7:32pm (AEDT)

(5) Kentucky Casanova looks the one to beat dropping in grade. He battled well on speed down the straight last start behind Pioneer River who has won again since. His first up win was dominant in this grade and he only rises 1kg after the claim, drawing perfectly in barrier 3. 

(10) Seguso also resumed with a dominant win, leading all the way at Geelong. I doubt he leads here but he’s clearly come back very well as a gelding and with extra fitness he’s a big danger. 

(2) Vongole is the blowout first up. He’s never missed the quinella first up and has taken on stronger races than this. His racing pattern is awful but there looks speed on and at the price he’s worth including.

Think the prices about the three mentioned are all fair and building a book around them despite it taking up a fair percentage. 

Tip: (5) Kentucky Casanova- $2.50 at TAB

Value: (2) Vongole- $26.00/7.00 at TAB

Saver: (10) Seguso- $4.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Kentucky Casanova, 0.75 units WIN Seguso, 0.25/0.5 units E/W Vongole