Doomben Racing Tips: Saturday, May 15th

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 11:42am (AEDT)

Tricky start to the card. I’d be looking to take on (12) The Move here at $2.50. It was a masterstroke by trainer Tony Gollan to send him to the firmer tracks in Sydney last start, where he won easily at Warwick Farm. He relished the good ground that day, but the query has to be the track condition at Doomben on Saturday. He was well beaten in his first two runs this campaign, which were both on rain-affected going. I’d expect the track to start somewhere in the soft range on Saturday, and from barrier 1 with G Boss aboard, the price is too skinny for my liking.

(6) Gee Tee Tee probably would have won with any luck first up. He was held up on the rail for the majority of the straight, before finally getting clear in the final 100m. I think if he got out earlier, he probably wins. He’s got a good second up record and goes well on rain-affected ground. He’s fairly versatile so with any luck in running, he should prove hard to beat.

(3) Le Palmier drops in class and did win a similar race first up at Eagle Farm.

(5) Beau Ideal and (10) Zac Attack could relish a decent tempo and can be included.

Tip: (6) Gee Tee Tee $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Gee Tee Tee

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:18pm (AEDT)

(1) Cuba needs to improve but he’s more than capable of bobbing up here. He always needs his first couple of runs, but he really hits his straps third up. He’s yet to win from 16 starts when first or second up, but he has four wins and a 2^nd from six starts when third up. He’s also got a good record on rain-affected ground. He should be able to jump and lead from barrier 2 – there doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed in the race – and with Nash Rawiller aboard, he’ll be very hard to run down.

(3) Fabric was good first up behind Missile Mantra and backed that up with victory in the G2 Queen Of The South Stakes in Adelaide. Danny O’Brien now travels her to Queensland and she comes into this third up with Glen Boss booked to ride. The firmer the ground, the better for her, but she’s sure to still be competitive if the track ends up in the soft range.

(2) Reloaded loomed like the winner last start over this track and distance, but he tends to do that. He was outgunned late to be beaten 0.2L and he remains the winner of just one of his 16 starts. Well drawn today and JMac goes on, so there’s a bit to like, but it’s hard to back him at $3.40.

(5) Right Or Wrong should be ready third up and up to the mile. He has a good record at this track and distance and he chased home a couple of smart ones last start.

Tip: (1) Cuba $5.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Cuba

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:52pm (AEDT)

I don’t think there’s any doubt (3) Love Tap is the best horse in this race, it’s just whether he’s going to be fully tuned up first up over the 1350m. He last raced over 2000m and was then sidelined with an infection in his hock. He’s been off the track for 31 weeks and has only had one trial in readiness for this. Listening to co-trainer Michael Freedman, he noted that he might just need the run. I’ll be having something on, but I don’t think he’s a complete load up job.

(12) Starosa can improve today at 20/1. She’s only placed once from four attempts when first up from a spell, but she’s undefeated second up, and is also 3/3 at this track and distance. Her only start on soft ground was a win, so despite the tricky draw, she has to be a bet here.

(7) Palladas is the stablemate of Starosa, with Ryan Maloney booked to ride. He was midfield first up at Eagle Farm but can improve with the good draw here.

(11) Incredulous Dream will be popular and I think it may even start favourite with the concern over Love Tap’s fitness. She is rock-hard fit with two wins from three starts this prep, and these Maher/Eustace horses tend to just keep on winning. The form out of that Nitschke Stakes at Morphettville isn’t all that strong though, which is my biggest query with her.

Tip: (3) Love Tap $2.90 Sportsbet

Value: (12) Starosa $21 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Love Tap, 0.5 units WIN Starosa

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)

There is talk of (1) Hang Man not lining up here if the track is too wet, but I suspect they will take their place with no more rain predicted. I concede he’s the horse to beat on current form – he finished just behind Zaaki last start and that horse came out and bolted in last weekend. Prior to that he won two in a row in Melbourne. He’s flying, but there’s a couple of others in this field that I’d rather back at the prices.

I’m expecting Chris Waller to have (6) So You Win absolutely cherry ripe for this. He’s been good in two starts back from a spell and now comes into this third up and up to 2000m. He won third up last prep over this same track and distance, which was also on soft ground. He’s drawn a bit tricky but think the $6.50 is a good price.

(4) Get Stuck In actually won first up and beat So You Win in the process. In that race that So You Win won third up last prep, Get Stuck In ran 2^nd, beaten a nose. The key to him here is that he’s also third up from a spell. His record at this stage of his preparation is outstanding, with four wins and a 2^nd from five starts. He draws well in barrier 2 with Ryan Maloney on board and I think the $10 is a great price.

Tip: (6) So You Win $6.50 Bet365

Value: (4) Get Stuck In $10 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN So You Win, 0.5 units WIN Get Stuck In

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

Siding with the locals in the 2YO Spirit Of Boom Classic, and I’m with a son of Spirit Of Boom himself. (7) Prince Of Boom demolished his rivals on debut at the Sunshine Coast on heavy ground. He drew wide, came from the back of the field and charged clear to win by 4.8L. Draws barrier 1 today so we may well see him more prominent in the run, and he clearly will have no issue with the conditions. Margins on heavy ground can sometimes be a bit flattering but I’ll stick with him at each way odds here.

(6) Maotai was another that created a huge impression on debut, saluting by 5.3L at Ipswich. He led on that occasion so from barrier 2 we can expect him to probably lead again here. Not sure what he beat there but he is clearly pretty smart and will trade much shorter than the $7.50 in the run if he finds the lead.

(2) Tiger Of Malay ran 2^nd in the Pago Pago Stakes before starting $10 in the Sires’ Produce. Has trialled well since that run and should be competitive on that form.

(4) Giannis was last seen running 3^rd to Golden Slipper winner Stay Inside in the Pierro Plate. That’s obviously red-hot form. He’s trialled twice leading into this, winning his most recent one, so should be ready to go here. Notably, James McDonald rode him in that trial but elects to get off him for race day.

(11) See You In Spring is undefeated, winning at Cranbourne on debut before stepping up to Listed company last start at Morphettville. Will be right up on speed from barrier 4 and has obvious claims.

Tip: (7) Prince Of Boom $6.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (6) Maotai $7.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Prince Of Boom, 0.5 units WIN Maotai

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

The big question for this race is how wet will the track be? I think (8) Senor Toba is clearly the horse to beat, but both his failures have been on wet ground. With that said, both of his failures were also over 1400m, while his two wins came over 1600m and 2000m. Hopefully the track dries out a fair bit because if it’s a soft 5 or better, I think he’ll be winning again.

(7) High Supremacy started favourite $3.20 in the Frank Packer, which Senor Toba won at $41. But you can’t say he’ll turn the tables on that result, surely.

(4) Kukeracha draws well and should be ready third up from a spell up to 2000m. He improved nicely last start in the Queensland Guineas and looks ready to do something now. Waller and Dittman are a money combo and $11 is a decent price.

(6) Achiever led them up in the Frank Packer Plate and stuck on for 3^rd. He likes wet ground and he’ll like Doomben too.

Tip: (8) Senor Toba $3.60 TopSport

Value: (4) Kukeracha $10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Senor Toba, 0.5 units WIN Kukeracha

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

The day’s feature is the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 over 1200m.

(2) Eduardo is the short-priced favourite at even money. It’s hard to knock his form this preparation, with wins in the Challenge Stakes and The Galaxy, before a 3^rd placing in the TJ Smith. He absolutely loves the wet and Doomben should really suit his racing style, so he ticks plenty of boxes, but I think even money is too short. Is this an afterthought? He trialled well recently, but he did the same thing at the same stage last preparation before running second-last in The Everest.

(4) Wild Planet seems a very big price to me. Whether he’s a Group 1 horse is the issue, but he should have won the Show County first up last preparation when he never saw daylight. He goes well fresh, goes well on wet ground and gets Ryan Maloney on board.

(8) Graff has to be backed at $21. He’s a complete enigma, and who knows what shape he’s in coming to his fourth stable, but how many times do we see Tony Gollan turn these horses around when they come to his stable? This horse won the G2 Caulfield Sprint first up last prep in terrific style, and that was on a soft 6. At $21, I have to have something on with how well Tony Gollan prepares these new additions to his stable.

The jury is certainly out with (1) Trekking. He was disappointing first up when he loomed into the race like the winner before stopping. Perhaps it was the wet track first up. I wouldn’t be writing him off here – let’s not forget he started $2.00 in that race.

(9) Wild Ruler was outclassed by Eduardo in The Galaxy, but I’m not sure he had the race work out ideally for him. He should get a perfect sit here from barrier 2 and will be there at the finish.

Tip: (4) Wild Planet $21 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (8) Graff $21 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Wild Planet, 0.5 units WIN Graff

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 4:02pm (AEDT)

Wide-open race.

(1) Fiesta hasn’t had much luck this prep. She got too far back first up, never saw daylight in The Galaxy, and then got held up at the top of the straight last start. Her racing pattern makes things hard for her and she’ll get a long way back from the gate today, which isn’t ideal at Doomben. She’ll be flooding home late.

(3) Athiri is favourite but I think she’s short enough at $3.40. She didn’t get any luck first up in the Hawkesbury Crown, held up in the straight from barrier 1. Forget she went around there. Her form outside of that looks excellent, but she does her best racing on firm ground which she is unlikely to get here. If the track were to come up good, she’d be the one to beat for sure.

(4) Outback Barbie never wins, but she loves this track and distance, with six placings from seven starts. JMac gets on today but she does find barrier 16 which makes things hard.

(6) Blazing Miss didn’t really get things go her way first up in the Hawkesbury Rush. She drew wide and ended up back and wide. She was still very ordinary but from barrier 1 here, she can settle right up behind the leaders. She ran 2^nd last prep over this track and distance, where she also drew barrier 1. Expect improvement today.

(10) Intrepidacious comes off a first up win in Melbourne, where she scrambled in. Awkward gate today and her second up record isn’t as good as her first up record, so I’ll be betting around her.

(20) Express Fantasy gains a run as the emergency and I’ll be backing her at $13. She won three of he four starts last prep, with her only defeat coming when she was beaten a nose as the $1.28 favourite. She’s first up off a long spell here with no trials, and there’s no jockey listed yet, but at those odds I’m keen to have something on.

Tip: (20) Express Fantasy $13 Bet365

Value: (6) Blazing Miss $14 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Express Fantasy, 0.5 units WIN Blazing Miss

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

If (11) Axe turns up in current form, he’s going to be very hard to beat. He bolted in to win consecutive races at the Gold Coast before running 2^nd to the highly-talented Skins last start. Skins has won five of his seven starts now and that looks a very good form reference. Axe was well clear of his other rivals and comes up with a better draw today, so should get a good run throughout. Think he’s the one to beat.

(7) Segalas will relish a wet track. He can mix his form a bit, but if you look at all his wet form, it’s all good. His run last start was good, sitting four-wide the trip without cover. Gets conditions to suit here provided the track is still soft, and at double figure odds, he looks the value in the race.

(12) Dr Why Not is also flying, with four wins from five starts this prep. His only defeat came at the hands of the very smart Weona Smartone. He goes up in grade again today and does cop a rough draw, but the double figure odds is enticing.

(10) Superium looks primed for this. He was good first up without a lot of luck at Caulfield, and he was then beaten 0.4L by Open Minded last start. Drawn a bit awkwardly in barrier 14 but gets Ryan Maloney on board. His third up record is some concern but they were for different stables.

Tip: (11) Axe $3.60 TopSport

Also Backing: (7) Segalas $10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Axe, 0.5 units WIN Segalas