Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, May 15th

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 11:32am (AEDT)

We kick off with a Highway Handicap.

(3) Perfect Pitch should be very competitive in a race like this. He’s won a similar race to this in the past, and it was only a handful of starts ago that he ran 2nd here. He absolutely hates winning but from the good draw, there’s no reason he can’t at least run a drum.

(6) Don’tforgetmonica was heavily backed in a similar race at Hawkesbury last start and didn’t get much luck at all. She only got clear at the 150m mark and was beaten a length on the line. Gets in with 51kg after the claim today and has to go close.

(8) Charlton Park should lead. She bolted in first up at Muswellbrook and led for the majority of the race before being run down very late last start. That form should make her tough to run down again today.

(7) Banju never runs a bad race.

Tip: (3) Perfect Pitch $10.20/$3.35 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:18pm (AEDT)

The two-year-old race is an open one and I’m likely to be backing three runners.

(3) Extremetime resumed with a narrow win at Canterbury last start and the horse she beat then came out and won its next start. She was heavily backed at long odds on debut behind Rocket Tiger but sat three-wide the trip so had excuses. Might be able to go on with it at good odds here.

(4) Headliner ran 2nd to subsequent Golden Slipper winner Stay Inside on debut. Nothing needs to be said about the strength of that form. She then failed in the Pierro Plate behind that same horse and went straight for a spell. She returns here with barrier 8, so I suspect she’ll be near the back of the field. Can win but will need to be good, however brings the best form.

(9) Tidal Impact made a big impression on debut, winning at Coonamble by 9.5L in the heavy ground. She’s had eight weeks between runs now but has since been back to the trials and looked sharp. Notably, jockey Darryl McLellan chooses to stick with her over Sonnet Star, who he also rode in a recent trial.

Tip: (9) Tidal Impact $8.50 Bet365

Also Backing: (4) Headliner $4.80 Bet365

Value: (3) Extremetime $9.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Tidal Impact, 0.5 units WIN Headliner, 0.5 units WIN Extremetime

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:42pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the chances of (3) Lackeen, who is my best value bet of the day. I was super keen on this horse first up when he was having his first start in Australia. He’d trialled enormous leading into that and was off the map in betting, but failed to fire a single shot. I thought last start showed he’s ready to do something. He was short of room in the straight but his final 100m was outstanding and he was just getting going through the line. That indicates the step up to 2000m today is going to be ideal for him and at $7.00 I think he’s a good each way bet.

(8) Achiever drops out of Group 3 company and the stable elect to start him here rather than in Brisbane, which is a positive lead. He won three starts back, then got caught three-wide the trip two starts ago and ran 3rd in a G3 last start. Absolutely loves wet ground and I suspect they’ll ride him positive. Hard to beat.

Tip: (3) Lackeen $7.00/$2.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Lackeen

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 1:17pm (AEDT)

I’ve always had a lot of time for (7) Newsreader and she started to deliver on her early promise last prep. She went to the Gold Coast and bolted in to win the Magic Millions maiden, before backing it up with another convincing win at Warwick Farm. This is another test again, but she’s won both trials leading in and provided she gets some luck from the wide draw, I think she’ll be too good.

Outside of her, it’s wide open. Could make a case for half a dozen.

(14) Expat and (16) Nags To Riches are relatively unexposed and can measure up.

Tip: (7) Newsreader $5.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Newsreader

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 1:52pm (AEDT)

Looks a match race on paper here between (1) Prime Star and (2) Exoboom. I’m actually going to side with the latter here. Prime Star is a classy horse; he resumed with a 0.5L defeat in the Inglis 3YO Sprint before placing in the Hobartville Stakes. He then ran midfield in the Randwick Guineas and didn’t get all that much luck, so you’d think he’d be hard to beat here. With that said, the form out of all those races hasn’t necessarily been all that strong, and there’s been a cloud over how good the 3YO ranks are. Rocketing By, Ole Kirk, Aegon, North Pacific and Lion’s Roar are all horses that fought out the finish in those three races he contested last prep, and they’ve all done little to suggest the form is A-grade.

Exoboom was beaten as the odds-on favourite first up but atoned for that with victory in the Hawkesbury Guineas last start. Third up last prep he won by 6.8L, so I’d suggest he may improve again from last start. The gate is the killer here as he could well end up last, but I’m going to take the better price about him.

(7) Supremo was very heavily backed first up and bolted in. He might measure up.

Tip: (2) Exoboom $3.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Exoboom

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 2:32pm (AEDT)

(7) Lost And Running should be winning this. He jumped to the front last start and settled beautifully, before putting a space in his rivals. He’s scared away half the field here and provided he settles in front again, I struggle to see them running him down. It’s another step up in grade, but he’s a horse with a serious motor.

One horse of interest outside the favourite is (9) Thorin who makes his Australian debut for David Payne. He’s a European Group 3 winner over the mile. He’s likely to find this too short but he’s one to keep an eye on for the future.

Tip: (7) Lost And Running $1.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 3:12pm (AEDT)

Looking forward to the return of (13) Fituese today. She’s undefeated from three attempts when first up from a spell, and she’s also 2/2 at the track and distance. Last prep, she resumed with a win over Hilo and Masked Crusader. That’s great form. She gets in with just 53kg today and with even luck from the gate, I think she’ll take plenty of beating.

(2) Embracer resumed as a gelding in the Hawkesbury Rush and was impressive in winning it. His second up record isn’t as good as his first up record, but he might also be a different horse this prep. He’ll be the one to run down but if Fituese is close enough, I think she can.

(14) Adelong is 3/3 at the track and distance and comes off a good run behind Embracer last start. She meets him 4kg better at the weights today.

(9) Albumin can run well fresh.

Tip: (13) Fituese $3.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Fituese

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 3:52pm (AEDT)

(5) Hulk hates winning, but he finds a nice race today and looks an each way bet to nothing. He’s had five starts when first up from a spell and has never finished out of the top two. Tommy Berry is a positive jockey booking for Chris Waller and with any luck from the sticky draw, he should be right in the finish.

(8) De Grawin has won his past four starts and returns from a spell today. Draws well, loves wet ground and keeps stepping up to the mark so he has to be a leading chance.

(4) Salina Dreaming bolted in first up at Warwick Farm but failed behind Lost And Running last start. She started $3.70 against him so you have to respect that SP.

(3) Mr Mosaic and (6) Belluci Babe not hopeless.

Tip: (5) Hulk $6.00/$2.20 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1.5 units E.W Hulk

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Hard to assess this race as at the time of writing, Air To Air is still in the market even though she ran at Scone on Friday. There will be a big market change with her scratching.

(15) Vitesse was good first up at Hawkesbury behind Impasse. She normally takes a run to come good but does have a good second up record. She won at this track over a very similar distance second up last preparation, so with Tim Clark aboard, she should go forward and be very hard to run down.

(16) Count De Rupee was very brave first up behind Marway, who then came out and bolted in to win his next start by 4L. Count De Rupee was 3.5L ahead of the 3rd horse and with the ideal barrier today, he’s quite clearly the horse they all have to beat.

(10) Smart Image wasn’t all that bad first up and can improve.

(22) Oscar Zulu was well backed first up last prep and won. Watch the market.

Tip: (15) Vitesee $13 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Vitesse