Racing Tips

Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, May 15th

Cracking day of racing at Flemington and Billy Bestford is keen to bet into a few races today.

by
Billy Bestford
14 May 2021

We have racing at Flemington headquarters today in Melbourne with a quality 9 race card to get stuck into. The highlight of the day is the Andrew Ramsden, with the winner gaining a golden ticket directly into this year’s Melbourne Cup.

Best Bet: Race 6 – (6) Realm Of Flowers

Best Value: Race 9 – (20) Mister Yu Shu

The track is currently rated a soft 7 but there is some showers predicted overnight and throughout the morning, so we may see a downgrade. The rail is out 2 metres the entire way around.

Billy Bestford has once again done the form and brings you a full race by race preview, with best bets and staking plans for every race on the card.

Race 1

Celebrating 20Yrs Of The Arhof (1000m)
11:45am (AEDT)

Race 1 Celebrating 20Yrs Of The Arhof (1000m) 11:45am (AEDT)
1. Abrazen Laugh (9) J: Thomas Stockdale (57kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	9	9	8.5	9	8	9.5
2. Deluxe Legend (4) J: Michael Dee (57kg) T: J D Sadler	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.6	8.5
3. I Am War (2) J: Nathan Punch (57kg) T: T J Andrews	34	34	41	34	37	34
4. Lafargue (10) J: Fred Kersley (57kg) T: D T O'brien	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.6	3.4	3.3
5. Mimosas (8) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: Clayton Douglas	12	12	12	13	11.2	12
6. Reynaire (3) J: Ben Allen (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	5	5	5	5.5	5.1	5
7. River Views (1) J: Mark Zahra (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	4.8	4.8	4.4	4.8	4.85	4.6
8. Vinlago (6) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	21	21	21	26	23.5	21
9. For Real Life (5) J: Michael Walker (55kg) T: L & T Corstens	11	11	12	13	10.6	11
10. That'swhatshesaid (7) J: Craig Newitt (55kg) T: Nathan Mcpherson

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:18pm (AEDT)

Tricky start to the day with many unknowns here. Have a slight leaning towards (7) River Views. Has had a stable change since a forgive run on debut in a strong race at Moonee Valley last year. Certainly looked the part in a recent trial, winning that easily under a hold and now tackles this race fresh with blinkers on. Think the stable might mean business here and looks a decent price to find out.

(4) Lafargue impressed at a recent jumpout, winning there and looks above average. O’Brien usually knows how to get them ready and he wouldn’t shock on debut. Will probably get back from the draw and spot some of his rivals a start.

(2) Deluxe Legend has the race experience factor and was an eye catcher on debut. Struggled out to 1400m 2nd up and looks suited back to this trip.

Tip: (7) River Views - $5.60 at SportsBetting

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN River Views

Race 2

Goodwood Trophy (Bm78) (1600m)
12:20pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Goodwood Trophy (Bm78) (1600m) 12:20pm (AEDT)
1. Star Of Eden (6) J: Mark Zahra (58kg) T: M D Moroney	5	5	4.8	5.5	5	5
2. Sweet Karolina (10) J: Teodore Nugent (57kg) T: L & T Corstens	4.5	4.5	4.4	4.6	4.65	4.4
3. Drone Strike (9) J: Matthew Cartwright (56.5kg) T: John Mcardle	10	10	10	11	6.9	10
4. Cakewalk Baby (5) J: Michael Poy (55.5kg) T: Ms W Kelly	17	17	18	18	17.4	18
5. Promada (1) J: Will Price (55.5kg) T: A W Noonan	11	10	10	11	10	9.5
6. Sabre Princess (8) J: Craig Newitt (55.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	14	14	13	13	11.8	14
7. Seeress (12) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (55.5kg) T: G A Osborne	15	15	15	16	15	16
8. Surecan (11) J: Harry Coffey (55.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	5	5	5	5	4.9	4.6
9. Countess Tessa (4) J: Lachlan Neindorf (55kg) T: Jarrod Robinson	9	9	9	8.5	9.6	9.5
10. Reckless Moon (7) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (55kg) T: Jarrod Robinson
11. Rosenstrasse (2) J: Damien Thornton (55kg) T: J F Moloney	23	26	26	26	26.5	26
12. Eloped (3) J: Shaun Mckay (54kg) T: Shawn Mathrick	67	81	81	81	79	81

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:22pm (AEDT)

Thought (1) Star Of Eden looked a very good chance here. Had to work overtime in a strong race in Adelaide last start where she was expected to hit the sandbags late. Maiden win before that was very good and Zahra should be able to go to the lead from the good draw today and give them something to catch.

(8) Surecan is still very lightly raced and is yet to miss the placings in three starts. Like her getting up to the mile and looks ready to peak.

(2) Sweet Karolina is flying, and looks ideally placed getting to 1600m 3rd up. Will be charging late down the outside and the claim for Nugent is a plus.

Tip: (1) Star Of Eden - $5.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Star Of Eden

Race 3

Breeders Hcp (1000m)
12:55pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Breeders Hcp (1000m) 12:55pm (AEDT)
1. Sartorial Splendor (5) J: Matthew Cartwright (58kg) T: J D Sadler
2. Ididitforlove (1) J: Lachlan Neindorf (56.5kg) T: Patrick Payne	4.4	4.4	4.6	5	4.45	4
3. The Centaurian (9) J: Nathan Punch (54.5kg) T: B R Fox	34	41	34	41	43	41
4. Li'l Kontra (6) J: Brett Prebble (54kg) T: Ryan Balfour	7.5	7	7	8	7.1	7
5. Chicago Cub (4) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: M D Moroney	6	5.5	5	5.5	5.4	5.5
6. Brimarvi Vehero (8) J: Michael Walker (54kg) T: S Burford	7	7	7	7	6.6	6.5
7. Free Of Debt (3) J: Will Price (54kg) T: Chris Bieg	5.5	6	6	6	6.1	6
8. Pinyin (7) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (54kg) T: J T Conlan	4.8	4.6	4.6	5	4.65	4.6
9. Rock Prophet (2) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: R J Besanko	12	12	11	13	11.4	13

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:57pm (AEDT)

(2) Ididitforlove started favourite in the race Satorial Splendor won and did well to finish 3rd before pulling up with some post-race issues. Should get the sit on his main rival here and looks the big danger. Any rain helps.

(8) Pinyin will be the one smoking the pipe out back as they fly up front and will be hammering home late. Can always pull out a big fresh performance and looks a solid EW chance.

Tip: (2) Ididitforlove - $3.70 at Palmerebet

Also Backing: (8) Pinyin - $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ididitforlove, 0.5 unit WIN Pinyin

Race 4

Aust Racing Hall Of Fame Trphy (2000m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Aust Racing Hall Of Fame Trphy (2000m) 1:30pm (AEDT)
1. Brimham Rocks (2) J: Michael Walker (60kg) T: C J Waller	5.5	6	6	6	5.6	5.5
2. Another Dollar (9) J: Luke Nolen (59.5kg) T: P G Moody	4.8	5	5	5.5	4.8	5
3. Haky (4) J: Ben Allen (58.5kg) T: Archie Alexander	11	11	11	12	11.8	12
4. Hypnos (3) J: Teodore Nugent (57kg) T: R James & R Wellwood	2.9	2.8	2.7	2.9	2.95	2.7
5. Declares War (8) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: Matthew Cumani	7.5	7.5	7.5	8	7.2	7.5
6. Tavirun (1) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
7. Midterm (6) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: M & L Cerchi	18	19	18	19	16.6	19
8. Don't Doubt Dory (5) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (54kg) T: J R Welsh
9. Dogmatic (10) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (54kg) T: Richard Laming	7.5	7.5	7.5	8	7.1	8
10. Silence The Stars (7) J: Harry Coffey (54kg) T: Deanne Taylor	27	31	34	31	32	26

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

Happy to be with (1) Brimham Rocks in this 2000m contest. Was enormous 1st up over a trip well short of his best and now looks ready to peak 3rd up today. The only concern will be how much rain comes, but if the track can stay on the better side of a 6, he is the best horse in this race.

(2) Another Dollar is another horse who looks ready to put in a peak run. Ran a good 2nd last start over this trip and loves the 2000m. Always need to respect this jockey and trainer combo as well.

Tip: (1) Brimham Rocks - $3.65 at SportsBetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 5

Curragh Leilani (Bm84) (1200m)
2:10pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Curragh Leilani (Bm84) (1200m) 2:10pm (AEDT)
1. Just Hifalutin (11) J: Ms Melissa Julius (63.5kg) T: Symon Wilde	26	31	31	26	28	34
2. Strome (6) J: Josh Richards (61kg) T: D J O'prey	41	41	51	61	61	41
3. Cordilla (7) J: Will Price (58.5kg) T: D T O'brien	3	3	2.9	3.2	2.85	2.7
4. Aimee's Jewel (2) J: Jason Maskiell (58kg) T: C J Cassar
5. Magnavale (4) J: Lewis German (58kg) T: G M Duryea	15	16	17	17	17.2	17
6. The Stylist (10) J: Harry Coffey (56kg) T: Deanne Taylor	14	15	15	15	13.8	16
7. Bons Abroad (1) J: Teodore Nugent (55.5kg) T: K L Corstens	3.3	3.3	3.2	3.3	3.4	3.4
8. Plaquette (8) J: Ben Allen (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
9. Don'ttelltheboss (3) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (54kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	8	8	7.5	8	8.1	8
10. Excelida (5) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	7.5	7	7.5	8.5	7	7
11. Garvoc (9) J: Michael Walker (54kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	12	12	13	13	11	12

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

(1) Cordilla comes out of a high rating race but arguably had every possible favour that day. Will be rock hard fit now but just not sure about the setup this prep going 1200 – 1100 – 1300 back to 1200 here?

(7) Bons Abroad was dominant last start over 1300m when ridden a touch more positive. That might be the key for her and is a definite winning chance.

(11) Garvoc has always been one of mine and never runs a bad race. Continues to run a hole and is as consistent as they come. Bit tougher here but gets in light and can be in the finish.

(9) Don’ttelltheboss has been solid recently and looks next best.

Tip: (1) Cordilla - $2.25 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 unit WIN Cordilla

Race 6

The Andrew Ramsden (2800m)
2:50pm (AEDT)

Race 6 The Andrew Ramsden (2800m) 2:50pm (AEDT)
1. Constantinople (8) J: Dean Holland (58.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	34	41	34	41	29	41
2. Grand Promenade (1) J: Harry Coffey (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	13	13	15	16	13	12
3. Persan (4) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.6
4. Mohican Heights (9) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: C J Waller	14	14	13	15	12	13
5. Miami Bound (10) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: D T O'brien	3.4	3.4	3.3	3.4	3.45	3.5
6. Realm Of Flowers (6) J: Mark Zahra (56kg) T: A & S Freedman	3.1	3.1	3	3.1	3.2	3.1
7. Never Listen (2) J: Luke Nolen (56kg) T: P G Moody
8. Lion's Share (7) J: Will Price (56kg) T: Steven Pateman	126	126	151	201	191	101
9. Through Irish Eyes (3) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	10	9.5	9.5	10	10.2	9.5
10. Salto Angel (5) J: Damien Thornton (52kg) T: D T O'brien	21	21	21	21	17.4	21

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 2:53pm (AEDT)

(6) Realm Of Flowers is another horse who is airborne at the moment. Has run some huge late sectionals in recent races and will be rock hard fit for this today. This looks her grand final and deserves a win this prep. Should have a bit more luck than recently with a smaller field here today and think she looks very hard to beat.

(5) Miami Bound will appreciate as much rain as possible and we know she can pull out a huge run in this quality of race. Has been competitive in strong races this prep, placing in the Tancred before flying home in the SydneyCup.

No knock on (3) Persan and last start was the first poor run we’ve seen from him for a while. Finished 5th in last years Cup and this looks as if it would have been a target race.

Might turn out to be the worst tip I’ve given but could honestly make a case for (8) Lion’s Share to run a hole. Was never likely last start at Warrnambool where it was impossible to make ground but 1st up run before that was very good behind now G1 winner Media Award. Like her out to 2800m and will be having a peanut on at enormous odds.

Tip: (6) Realm Of Flowers - $4.00 at TopSport

Value: (8) Lion’s Share - $131 at SportsBetting

Betting Strategy: 2 unit WIN Realm Of Flowers, 0.25 unit EW Lion’s Share

Race 7

Royal Ascot Silver Bowl (1400m)
3:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Royal Ascot Silver Bowl (1400m) 3:30pm (AEDT)
1. Ranting (10) J: Teodore Nugent (63.5kg) T: L & T Corstens	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.6	5.5
2. Altai Ranger (9) J: Matthew Cartwright (57.5kg) T: J D Sadler	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.4	4.65	4.6
3. Mark Of The Man (1) J: Michael Poy (55kg) T: Aaron Purcell	34	34	31	41	43	26
4. Rathlin (8) J: Michael Dee (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
5. Cumberbatch (5) J: Michael Walker (54.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	12	12	11	12	11.4	11
6. Winsum (4) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: K & K Keys	6.5	6.5	5.5	6.5	6.5	6
7. Celestial Sol (7) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: C J Waller	8	8	7.5	8	7.4	8.5
8. Field Of Roses (2) J: Josh Richards (54kg) T: P Stokes	17	18	19	19	18.8	18
9. Vibrant Glider (6) J: Will Price (54kg) T: P Stokes	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.6	8.5
10. Grand Pope (3) J: Brett Prebble (54kg) T: Nick Ryan	6	6	6	6	6.1	6
11. Summaroca (11) J: Thomas Stockdale (54kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	23	21	21	26	20.5	23

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 3:32pm (AEDT)

Don’t see why (2) Altai Ranger can’t win again. Was very good beating Cordilla last start and is as tough as they come. Will roll forward like usual and should be able to give a strong kick with a 3kg claimer on board. Think the last start win might be the confidence booster he needed.

(1) Ranting was last seen running a good 3rd in a G2 down in Adelaide and looks suited stepping out in trip now. Has been competitive in top line Group 1s and best form wins this.

(4) Rathlin is flying lately but is still stuck on just one career win. Looks just about ready to win one now and this race looks very winnable for him.

Tip: (2) Altai Ranger - $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Altai Ranger

Race 8

Congratulations Arhof Inductee (1400m)
4:08pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Congratulations Arhof Inductee (1400m) 4:08pm (AEDT)
1. Reykjavik (4) J: Lachlan Neindorf (59kg) T: L Smith	5.5	6	6	6.5	6.2	6
2. Odeon (5) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (57.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	14	14	13	15	13	13
3. Salsamor (8) J: Thomas Stockdale (57.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	46	51	41	61	43	41
4. Riddle Me That (11) J: Matthew Cartwright (57kg) T: M M Laurie
5. Rox The Castle (12) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: Ms K Edwards
6. Iconoclasm (13) J: Ben Allen (56.5kg) T: D T O'brien
7. Yulong January (9) J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	2.8	2.8	2.6	2.8	2.85	2.8
8. Galaxy Raider (2) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: G M Begg	7	6.5	7	7.5	7.5	7
9. Inn Keeper (1) J: Dean Holland (56kg) T: Symon Wilde
10. Native Soldier (7) J: Michael Poy (55.5kg) T: Maddie Raymond	13	13	14	13	12	14
11. Bumper Blast (14) J: Michael Walker (54kg) T: Robert Hickmott	6.5	7	7	7.5	6.7	6
12. Viral (3) J: Will Price (54kg) T: D T O'brien	5.5	5.5	5.5	6	5.3	5.5
13. Biometric (10) J: Harry Coffey (54kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
14. Design Rouge (6) J: Josh Richards (54kg) T: S P Nichols

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 4:12pm (AEDT)

(8) Galaxy Raider has put together a string of placings this prep and a win looks very close. Couldn;t miss his fresh run where he flew home for 3rd behind Mr Quickie in the Vic Handicap and then probably wasn’t helped by the way the race was run last start. Like the drop back to 1400m for him and there looks to be enough speed in the race to suit. Just a question of where he gets to from gate 2?

(1) Reykjavik will be suited getting to 1400m here after flying home in a leader-dominated Wangoom. Should be at peak fitness 4th up and will enjoy a nice run from gate 4. Will enjoy getting back to Flemington as well.

(7) Yulong January looked home last start over this trip at Sandown before being grabbed late by Dice Roll. Will only take natural improvement from that and 3rd up record reads very well.

Tip: (8) Galaxy Raider - $8 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Galaxy Raider

Race 9

York Trophy (Bm78) (1600m)
4:45pm (AEDT)

Race 9 York Trophy (Bm78) (1600m) 4:45pm (AEDT)
1. Significance (11) J: Luke Nolen (62kg) T: P G Moody	51	51	51	71	57	51
2. Mr Tipla (3) J: Thomas Stockdale (60kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	13	13	13	14	13	13
3. Sentimentalist (4) J: Brett Prebble (60kg) T: P A Preusker
4. Jittery Jack (20) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (59kg) T: J D Matheson	23	21	26	26	21	26
5. Reformist (16) J: Michael Dee (59kg) T: Archie Alexander	34	34	31	34	32	34
6. Savoie (17) J: Lewis German (59kg) T: B & A Mcknight	71	101	81	81	111	101
7. Influential Girl (15) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (58.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	14	15	16	16	16	16
8. Zero Doubt (18) J: Craig Newitt (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
9. Vegas Knight (6) J: Mark Zahra (57.5kg) T: C W Little	13	12	12	13	11.8	11
10. Ocean Miss (5) J: Jake Noonan (57kg) T: David & Coral Feek	6	6	5.5	6.5	6.1	5.5
11. Falls (10) J: Josh Richards (56.5kg) T: M C Kent
12. War Tiger (19) J: Teodore Nugent (56.5kg) T: M & L Cerchi	126	151	101	201	101	151
13. Pearl Bandit (8) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: L Macdonald & A Gluyas	15	15	15	16	17	16
14. Dirty Deeds (1) J: Damien Thornton (55.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	5.5	5	5.5	5.5	5.7	5
15. Prince Of Helena (13) J: Lachlan Neindorf (55.5kg) T: Craig Weeding	9.5	9	9.5	9.5	10	9.5
16. Dazzling Damsel (2) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (55kg) T: Will Clarken
17. San Fabrizio (7) J: Will Price (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	3.3	3.3	3.1	3.3	3.05	3.3
18. Sukoot (9) J: Fred Kersley (55kg) T: D T O'brien	51	61	61	71	55	61
19. Dusk Falls (12) J: Harry Coffey (55kg) T: M J Williams	151	151	101	151	141	151
20. Mister Yu Shu (14) J: Matthew Cartwright (54kg) T: J T Conlan

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 4:47pm (AEDT)

Keen to round out the day with (17) San Fabrizio who was impressive in his first Australian start, only being run down late. That was his first run in almost 12 months so he did well to finish as close as he did. Should only improve off the back of that, gets out to a more suitable trip and will be in this a long way.

(10) Ocean Miss who has come very well this prep. Bolted in fresh before looming up last start in a stronger race and only being beaten in a head bob. Stays at the mile and should be suited back in grade today. Enjoys the gun run.

(20) Mister Yu Shu faces his toughest task this prep but has been an eye catcher in every start. Gets back and usually needs a lot to go right for him but gets way down in the weights here and comes into this off a good win in adelaide. First try at the mile.

(14) Dirty Deeds has four straight placings and is clearly going well. Honest as they come and will be fighting out the finish once again.

Tip: (17) San Fabrizio - $5.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (20) Mister Yu Shu - $21 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 unit WIN San Fabrizio, 0.25 unit WIN/0.5 unit PLACE Mister Yu Shu

Billy Bestford

Billy has been an avid racing fan ever since he and a few mates started a punters club once they turned 18. Following the initial punters clubs, he was properly hooked after landing a nice collect on Admire Rakti in the 2014 Caulfield Cup and has had a soft spot for Japanese horses ever since. Is a massive fan of 'blinkers first time' and has been known to enjoy a 'Hail Mary' multi. Loves punting across metro Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday but isn't scared to venture West late in the day to find a Pikey special.