Morphettville Racing Tips: Saturday, May 15th

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:18pm (AEDT)

(7) Laundy is consistent but seems short enough as favourite given its only recent win was in an average race where it got every favour leading. Olly goes on and he gets in with 55kg which looks attractive.

(2) Dr Dependable looks ready to win. He never goes well first or second up, having never won from 13 starts early in the prep. 3rd up is where he starts to strike form, with 2 wins and 2 thirds from 5 starts when 3rd up. Out to 2000m is an obvious tick and I think Holder will lead from barrier 2. 

(4) Vividredsky had no chance in the Terang Cup when back on a day that was hard to make ground out wide. The run prior behind Fanciful Toff is good enough for this, but that was over 2400m and he’s had a hurdling trial since then, so sharpness over 2000m is the query.

Tip: (2) Dr Dependable- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Dr Dependable

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 12:32pm (AEDT)

(5) I Am In The Mood did well to lead all the day on debut at Bendigo. She was in a bit of an awkward position early, sharing the front on the rails but she strode clear and gave a good kick, holding everything late. The 2nd horse has come out and run well in a VOBIS race at The Bool and she’s clearly got scope to improve. Lane takes the ride and she should land 1-1 from barrier 4.

(7) Heresy ran well on debut at Geelong, getting back and hitting the line well. The winner ran well, beaten 2.3L in the Sires last week. Olly sticks with her over the stablemate.

(4) Butter Blonde was disappointing first up at Caulfield behind Najmaty but led all the way at The Bool, which was the place to be all week. Gets Willo on from barrier 2 so I’d expect she leads again. 

(6) Salamanders gets Kah on and does tie in with Butter Blonde, having run 2nd to Under The Dunes at Mornington two back, whom Butter Blonde beat. The maiden win last start was good.

Happy to go a touch outside of the market and back in Lane, who is owning this Adelaide carnival with I Am In The Mood.

Tip: (5) I Am In The Mood- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN I Am In The Mood

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 1:07pm (AEDT)

Bit of a nothing race over 1050m. (11) Maddox was okay first up and went on with it in a big way last start, leading all the way to win by 5L. She’s only lightly raced and has upside but I’d think it regresses a bit from that win.

(3) Not Enough Effort is consistent to say the least. His last two starts have been solid in good company, behind Galenus/Ocular and Whipcracker Way. 

(6) Kayseri is definitely up to this grade and has won first up. He’s got a strong SP profile and wouldn’t shock fresh. 

(5) Trygyve won at $21 last week with 51kg in a stronger race. Jumps to 55kg after the 3kg claim and his form prior was just fair, but a repeat of last week definitely has him in consideration.

Tip: (11) Maddox- $4.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 1:42pm (AEDT)

The Sangster clearly looks the form for this race and there wasn’t much between the runs of the two favourites. (1) Rubisaki settled near the back, saved a bit of ground and came off heels in the straight to run on well for 3rd. Her final 200m was the equal race best with Instant Celebrity, and she was unlucky and good first up. She goes up 1.5kg under these conditions but is hard to knock, although I’d love to see her strike a wet track where I think she’s more effective. 

(4) Brooklyn Hustle was beaten 1.3L by Rubisaki in the Sangster, although I do think her run was a bit better than that. She drew barrier 14 and covered a lot more ground, racing wide with cover and hooking out very deep early in the straight. Her 400-200m split was the race fastest but her run ended over the last 50m or so to run 5th. She actually drops 1kg here, meeting Rubisaki 2.5kg better at the weights, and very notably she gets J Kah, who has never ridden the horse. She was also 6 weeks between runs there which probably isn’t ideal for her at 1200m. 

(3) Wild Vixen could the real knockout chance first up if the two favourites don’t show up. 

(2) Humma Humma was okay in the Sangster and did win a much, much easier edition of this race last year but I can’t see her turning the tables on either Rubisaki or Brooklyn Hustle.

I haven’t been burnt by Brooklyn Hustle many times, if at all recently, but it’s hard to ignore her group 1 form this prep. She arguably should’ve won the Oakleigh Plate and even potentially the Newmarket, and she sets up incredibly well with 55.5kg and Kah on board, plus she’s a bigger price than Rubisaki.

Tip: (4) Brooklyn Hustle- $3.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Brooklyn Hustle

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 2:22pm (AEDT)

2500m for the Fillies’ Classic. The Oaks is the traditional lead up and is often prominent, although there have been a few out wide lead ups in recent years, including Realm Of Flowers last year coming off a 2000m Murray Bridge win. The best run in the Oaks was clearly (3) Flexible who probably should’ve gone close to winning with a clearer passage, getting stuck on the rails and racing tight for most of the straight. She hit the line very well for a 0.9L 4th, clearly the race fastest last 200m. I don’t think 2500m will pose any issue, although she has been up forever, first racing at the start of December. Olly replaces Pike which is a slight positive and if he isn’t too far back from 13 she’ll be hard to beat.

(4) Mimi’s Award brings the different form, coming out of a Wangaratta bm58 where she won in a canter by 7L. She does have some tactical speed but draws barrier 14 so might have to go back with Flexible which might make things tough.

(2) Chequerboard has plenty of miles in her legs but Flexible did beat her fair and square by 2.7L when they met in the Adrian Knox. The win at Cranbourne was tradesman like and I think 2500m will pose no issue. If Flexible gets too far back, she’s the one that will keep kicking.

(6) Shezbringit was good behind Royal Mile at $101 two back and did hit the line fairly well last week in the Derby against the boys, beaten 6L, again at $101. She’ll probably get back to last but will stay the trip and has rough claims.

Finding it hard to go against Flexible off her Oaks run.

Tip: (3) Flexible- $3.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Flexible

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 3:02pm (AEDT)

There’s enough to keep me interested with (1) In Good Health. I’ve been with her most of this prep and whilst she hasn’t been beaten far, she’s been a touch disappointing. She went far too slowly at The Valley and perhaps being 6 weeks between runs just gave out last start. She steps up to 2000m here, gets blinkers on, and gets Olly on which I think are all positives. I’d love to see her lead a race and think that’s very possible here. 4th up last prep she was only 1.6L off one time Caulfield Cup favourite Orderofthegarter.

(4) Shop Till I Drop did narrowly beat her home last start but she’s going to be giving her a head start again, especially from barrier 11, and did start $10 to IGH’s $4.40 last start, yet is shorter in the market here.

The value looks to be (9) Zayydani who is racing very well and looks primed for this. I think she should’ve won last start at Flemington when not given the best ride, getting stuck on the fence from barrier 7 and bursting clear too late. She’s had two 1600m runs and now gets to 2000m, where her last run at this T/D was a very good closing 7th to Toffee Tongue in the Oaks, before running 4th to Russian Camelot in the Derby, only beaten 3.8L. She’s going to need luck again from barrier 1 but at $9.50 I’m very happy to be with her.

At bigger odds again, (16) Kentucky Tornado can run a race. She had a stable change coming into this prep, going from Waller to O’Brien, and her first up run was very good, running on strongly for 2nd to Oaks winner Media Award with 60kg. Gets in well under the weight conditions here, Wllo sticks and 2nd up last pre she wasn’t far off Skyman and Cadre Du Noir.

Backing Zayydani and Kentucky Tornado, and having something on In Good Health, any three a winning result.

Tip: (9) Zayydani- $9.50/3.10 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) In Good Health- $3.80 at Bet365

Value: (16) Kentucky Tornado- $15.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN In Good Health, 0.5 units WIN Zayydani, 0.25 units WIN Kentucky Tornado

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 3:42pm (AEDT)

Looks genuine enough speed here and I’m definitely going to stick with (10) Hasta La War who should’ve won 2nd up when not given the best ride by apprentice Jacob Opperman, who just missed the boat a touch in my opinion. The horse rocketed home to somehow finish 4th, beaten 0.5L and ran the fastest last 200m of the meeting in a sizzling 11.23. I would’ve loved this to be 1800m 3rd up but he was going 1200-1600m 2nd up so he should be at peak fitness for this. Bates replaces the apprentice and he’s a horse with plenty of ability. At $16 I have to be on, despite this being a harder race.

(3) Dr Drill is easy to like with Kah taking the ride. He stuck on okay first up over 1400m behind Still A Star, and his best form makes him very hard to beat here, although he does need another win.

(1) Pacodali is an 8yo now but does go very well 2nd up and was definitely a pass mark 1st up over 1400m behind Dice Roll. D Lane takes the ride which is a huge positive, but he really needs another win.

(6) Vassilator is racing well but all his form is at Flemington and although he can race well at other tracks, he always needs luck and is short enough.

Tip: (10) Hasta La War- $16.00/4.20 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Hasta La War

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 4:22pm (AEDT)

The feature of the day, and in my opinion the best sprint race on the day. Why it’s on the same day as the Doomben 10,000 is beyond me, but it’s still a quality sprint.

The two big guns dominate the market and I’m firmly in the camp of (1) Behemoth. He’s contested this race the last two years- he should’ve won as a 3yo when badly held up behind Despatch and got a long way back and flew home last year behind Trekking. Since last year he’s reinvented himself a bit and is no longer a backmarker, which I think is key. The furthest back he’s settled since then was 9th of 16 in a Rupert Clarke, which he won, and he did even lead the All Star Mile and ran very well for 3rd. He flies first up, having won 4 from 7, and I think 1200m is definitely the most ideal trip for him fresh. His last two first up runs have been dominant wins, he’s trialled very well, Willo reunites with the horse and he should be settling midfield just off the rails and charging late.

(2) Gytrash is a very good sprinter and the obvious danger. Speaking of fresh records, this horse is elite first up, having never missed the quinella, with 4 wins and 2 seconds, but diving deeper into that, his last 5 fresh runs have been over 1050m or 1000m, and his debut run was at 1100m. I’ve got no issues with him at 1200m- the Everest 3rd to Classique Legend was huge and he’s won at 1300m, but 1200m first up is some query. He’s also coming off surgery and the stable were just going to trial the horse and save him for the Spring but have decided to put him in a group 1 instead. There are enough knocks to demote him to 2nd pick and given he’s much shorter than Behemoth, I’m going to be against whilst in no way knocking the horse’s ability. 

If either of them show up near their best, they’ll win, but of the others I think (6) Savatoxl is probably the knockout chance given he’s the likely leader. He’s a winner this horse and was dominant in the D C Mckay last start, leading all the way over 1100m in good time and giving nothing else a look in. This is obviously much harder but if the rail is hot he’ll be in this for longer than his price would suggest.

(9) Instant Celebrity was good winning the Sangster and is clearly a very talented filly, but she gets in awfully at the weights as a 3yo, only getting 4kg off Behemoth and she was given a gun ride by Willo to save ground. This looks much harder and she’d have to go to another level again, likely giving both big guns a head start. 

(3) Kemalpasa is flying and will run his honest race again, but Behemoth absolutely towelled him up when they met in the Durbridge and he’s a very solid B+ sort of horse, whereas the other two are A+.

Pretty keen to be on Behemoth- I think 1200m first up suits him much better than Gytrash who has a few queries coming into this. At $4.50 he’s a good bet. Savatoxl to place at $4.60+ isn’t the worst play either and I’ll be using that as my saver.

Tip: (1) Behemoth- $4.50 at Sportsbetting

Saver: (6) Savatoxl- $19.00/4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Behemoth, 0.5 units PLC Savatoxl

Odds Last Updated: May 15, 2021, 5:07pm (AEDT)

Another finish to a feature card that is near impossible. (4) The Natural led all the way two back at Cranbourne but was disappointing last start at Ballarat, really puncturing late behind Corner Pocket to be beaten 5L. She has to carry 61kg but this is much easier and she does get blinkers on.

(8) Munster promised a lot last prep with some very short SP’s and finally scraped a win at the end of the campaign. Has form that ties in a few of these and if he can get somewhere near the level the market suggests he’ll make this grade easily in time.

(12) Ambidazzle is racing well and just missed in a similar race two weeks ago.

(10) Perfect Command was okay first up in that race and should be improved. He’s a bit hit and miss but does have some runs that would go close in this, and Lane sticks with him.

Tip: (4) The Natural- $7.90 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN The Natural