Flemington Racing Tips: 2020 Derby Day

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The deserved favourited is clearly (3) Aysar coming off a huge run in the Caulfield Guineas, sitting wide with cover and peeling out in the straight, only to be run down by a very good colt in Ole Kirk.

Despite having to work a bit early, I can’t see (1) Crosshaven turning the tables here, who could be a touch suspect at the end of 1600m and meets Aysar worse at the weights.

The danger to the favourite is (4) Embolism coming off a dominant win on Blue Sapphire day. With the blinkers on and up to 1600m he was far too good for his rivals, and he maps to find the 1-1 with no trouble at all. I can see Olly really trying to outride Lane here and attempt to hold Aysar in a pocket for as long as possible. Going back two runs, Embolism didn’t have a whole lot of luck yet only finished 1.25L off Grandslam, who did run 3^rd in that Caulfield Guineas.

(2) Endanger next best and he’ll appreciate the long straight at Flemington over 1600m. I concede Aysar is clearly the horse to beat, but I think he’ll start quite short, likely odds on. I don’t really want to be piling into him at that quote early and think Embolism maps just a touch better from barrier 4 and can continue to progress.

Top Pick – (4) Embolism $6 TAB

Betting Strategy – 1 unit WIN Embolism

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

There is a great bet here in the form of (8) Miravalle. I’m absolutely convinced that the Melbourne staying fillies are no good – the lead ups have been won by the best rides, with bunched finishes and average races.

Miravalle comes down from Sydney having contested the group one Spring Champion at her last start, and I thought her run was full of merit. She settled a long way back, came widest on the turn, and to add insult to injury, a horse shifted out just as she was cornering, forcing her even wider. She balanced up and kept making ground, beaten 5.8L by the coming Oaks winner Montefilia. Miravalle also beat home Cherry Tortoni, who is trending to start favourite in the Derby. I think the form is lengths better than the Ethereal Stakes and at $10, she’s a very easy bet to have.

The other form line is the Thousand Guineas and the run of that race was (1) Personal who settled off midfield and made solid ground for 2^nd behind Odeum. I’m not sold on her as a stayer- her breeding suggests 1600m is as far as she wants it, and whilst she was strong late in the guineas, Miravalle will definitely get 2000m and beyond.

(9) Victoria Quay brings the completely different form having finished 2^nd to Ain’tnodeeldun in Adelaide last start, with that horse set to be a major derby player if they opted to run him. That was a fast run race and she closed strongly. The 2000m will be right up her ally and she gets Kah on here.

I’d mark Miravalle much shorter in the market and am happy to bet accordingly.

Top Pick – (8) Miravalle $10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy – 2 units WIN Miravalle

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This race looks ideally set up for (9) Octane. Getting back to Flemington is huge for this guy, because his racing manners can really cost him around a bend like Caulfield, evidenced by last start in the Schillaci where he took the corner awkwardly, but still finished 3^rd, beaten 0.3L by Dirty Work.

The form out of that race is very strong with Hey Doc going on to win the Manikato, and the conditions of this race are much better for Octane. That race was at WFA and he drops 4.5kg under the handicap conditions. His run down the straight was a very good win, and from barrier 7 Kah should have no issues getting to the outside and letting rip.

The only slight query is 1200m, but with little speed on paper I can’t see it being brutally run, so he should have no problems reeling off the electric last 600m he possesses, and with 54kg on his back I can’t see anything matching him late.

The one at odds I want to have something on however is (2) Tactical Advantage. He didn’t have a whole lot of luck last start in the Sydney Stakes when crowded for room along the fence. He’s a horse that needed momentum, and when he gets it, he can reel off a very fast last 600m. He ran on Cup day at this T/D last year and bolted in, coming from last to win running away. He’s as much as $26 which looks clear overs down the straight.

(5) Blazejowski is a chance fresh and is a good Flemington horse who has jumped out well. I don’t think his form is quite as good, but he’ll run well, as will (6) Banquo coming out of the Rupert Clarke.

Happy to have a decent crack at Octane who looks very hard to beat and having something on Tactical Advantage.

Top Pick – (9) Octane $2.8 TAB

Value – (2) Tactical Advantage $26 Bet365

Betting Strategy – 4.5 units WIN Octane, 0.5 units WIN Tactical Advantage

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The final chance to get into the Melbourne Cup, with a guaranteed start given to the winner of the Lexus Hotham Stakes. It’s a tough puzzle to dissect and there’s very little between a few of these.

(10) Schabau and (11) Admire Robson come out of the Bart Cummings over this T/D and their runs were both very good. Schabau settled midfield and came wide in the straight, which wasn’t ideal given the wind on the day, but he rallied late and ran the equal fastest last 200m of the race with Admire Robson. That horse was shuffled back to 3^rd last around the turn but ran on strongly in the fastest last 600/400/200m of the race. Both horses get key jockey changes here, with Zahra replacing Pike on Schabau, and Boss replacing Prebble on Admire Robson. Preusker would’ve set Admire Robson to peak here, whereas Schabau has had a few chances to move his way up the order of entry, and 3^rd up with Boss on, I have a slight leaning to Admire Robson.

(1) Ashrun comes out of the Geelong Cup, where he took a while to balance up but hit the line strongly in the fastest last 200m of the race behind Steel Prince, who of course ran very well for 3^rd in the Bart Cummings ahead of Schabau and Admire Robson. Ashrun draws barrier 2 here and has to lump 61kg, and for a horse that takes a while to wind up, he might struggle drawn low and conceding 5kg to Admire Robson.

The one I will be having something on is (3) Hush Writer on the quick backup. He simply doesn’t go a yard on wet tracks and had no hope last week on what was a borderline heavy deck. He was taken on for the lead in a very quickly run race and finished last. All three runs prior this prep were very good- he finished 3^rd in a Wyong Cup when ridden back, then ran 2^nd to Mugatoo in a Newcastle Cup and 4^th in a Metropolitan. He has run well on a quick backup before, and that set up always has to be respected for the Waterhouse/Bott camp. Willo sticks, he’ll find a good track, and he should find a fairly comfortable lead. Whether he has the class I’m not sure, but he’ll run a much improved race.

Top Pick – (11) Admire Robson $6 Bet365

Value – (3) Hush Writer $23 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy – 1.5 units WIN Admire Robson, 0.5 units WIN Hush Writer

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Good edition of the Empire Rose and I think the market has got it pretty spot on, with two main winning chances.

(12) Odeum is the favourite coming off a fairly dominant thousand guineas win. She drops to 49kg here and will be up on speed trying to make full use of the massive weight swing she gets on (1) Mystic Journey. It should be a fascinating contest, with Odeum trying to pinch a break from an on pace position and see if Mystic Journey can run her down, which I think she can.

She was at a crossroads early this prep, finishing 8^th and 10^th in the Lawrence and Memsie respectively. She had a freshen up, went back to Tasmania, and came back a different animal in the Stocks at The Valley. Currie settled her near last, tracked Perfect Jewel into the race and was too strong late, with a huge gap back to 3^rd. Whilst Perfect Jewel has looked a bit lost since, her form leading into that race was very good.

Mystic Journey has had 5 runs at 1600m, her worst finish a 2^nd in the Makybe Diva last year. She maps beautifully from barrier 5 with Kerrin Mcevoy taking the ride, and with strong speed on paper, he’ll have his sights on Odeum and if she brings her best, I think she’ll win.

(11) Challiot next best – she has a stack of talent and will keep improving, especially back at Flemington but her racing pattern can be a worry, especially from barrier 4.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see very strong support for Odeum with the weight swing, hopefully meaning a better price for Mystic Journey. It should be a great battle, and I’m banking on ‘Betty’ to put her best foot forward.

Top Pick – (1) Mystic Journey $4.6 TAB

Betting Strategy – 1.5 units WIN Mystic Journey

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

One of the highlights of the Spring Carnival every year is the Coolmore Stud Stakes. We were treated to an outstanding contest last year between Exceedance and Bivouac, and whilst we might not have horses quite at their quality, we do have depth and angles.

I think there’s a big case to be made for (7) Anders here. His last 5 runs he’s started $1.35, $2.80, $2.40, $2.90 and $3.00. I know he finished 3^rd of the three horse field in the Blue Sapphire, but he was only beaten 0.3L and he got no peace whatsoever. He’d had 7 weeks between runs, was having his first go at the 1200m, and was eyeballed by Hanseatic and (5) Ranting basically the entire race. I thought he did a great job to stick on as well as he did, and that should have him primed for this.

His Sydney form was outstanding earlier this prep, smashing Ole Kirk in the Rosebud and Peltzer in the San Domenico. He ran horses like (6) Doubtland into the ground that day to the tune of nearly 8 lengths, with that horse subsequently winning the Danehill and beating Ranting. There is plenty of speed on paper, but if Anders can get away with a cheap split early, he has a very high cruising speed and might just be too hard to catch. I would’ve preferred him drawn out a bit, but he should be able to share the lead closest to the rail/middle of the track.

The other leader drawn out wide is (1) Farnan, and he’s very difficult to assess. He was expected to win the Run To The Roses on resumption and went out hard in the lead, fading late to finish 5^th. All things considered it wasn’t a terrible run, being beaten less than 4 lengths by Rothfire, and he did pull up with post-race issues. His recent Gosford trial with Boss on board was outstanding, it’s whether he can convert that to race day pressure.

The other Sydney colt in the market is (2) Wild Ruler, and he’s the one I’m happy to take on. He’s looked very impressive in two runs this prep, but I think he brings the B grade form and finds a very different test here. He put 3 lengths on Doubtland with ease last start off an even tempo and was able to use his turn of foot to great effect. They should go a lot quicker here and he’ll have Farnan for company on speed drawn out wide.

Of the Melbourne horses, (14) September Run has to be respected. She’s 2/2 down the straight and has run some really good times, but the form has to be queried. Visually her last start was very impressive, but in reality, she’s only beaten Maha and Minhaaj by under 1.5L, both of whom would be 50s chances here. She’ll be ridden cold again from the wide barrier and I have no doubt she’ll finish strongly, but the horses in front of her won’t be stopping.

The two interesting colts here are (4) Glenfiddich and (11) Flying Award. Both were very high up in guineas markets before their preps were derailed, and they come here off freshen ups. Neither have a stack of 1200m form, although Flying Award did run a huge race first up, beating home Ranting, so he’s certainly not hopeless and at the $26 you could do worse. I’m quite surprised at the odds on offer for Anders- his SP profile and form in Sydney is far too good to ignore at double figures and he looks a huge chance. Farnan terrifies me and looks the saver, although I’ve got no idea what the market will do with him, and Flying Award looks the blowout.

Top Pick – (7) Anders $10 Sportsbet

Danger – (1) Farnan $6 Sportsbet

Value – (11) Flying Award $26 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Anders, 0.5 units WIN Farnan, 0.5 units WIN Flying Award

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Click here to view Tim Geers’ runner-by-runner preview of the G1 Victoria Derby!

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

As you’d expect, it’s a very open race for a group one handicap mile, and the speed should be strong again. (13) Buffalo River ran very well in the Toorak but was no match late for (2) Mr Quickie who was given a beautiful ride by Jamie Kah from barrier 2. Drawn the carpark here, Mr Quickie is going to face a very different scenario here, having to loop the field from near last. Both have claims in the race, although Buffalo River would be very hard to beat on a soft track, which is unlikely.

There are a couple at odds I want to spec here however, the first being (14) Chief Ironside. I thought he ran fairly well in the Toorak with 57kg, getting a fair way back after a lack of intent by Bowman in my opinion. Kmac takes over here, and he drops to 53kg from the same barrier in 3. He’s much better up on pace and should be able to settle in the first 6 here with the light weight. His best is certainly good enough as evidenced by his Crystal Mile win last Spring, before pulling up lame in this race last year.

The other at monstrous odds is (11) The Velvet King, who also draws beautifully in barrier 4. He basically barrier trialled last start over 1200m, settling at the rear with a big weight. He drops a whopping 8kg for this, and he’s better suited at 1600 when able to be on speed. His WA form certainly reads well enough, with form around Perfect Jewel and Regal Power most notable. He’s $51 in the market and worth a peanut.

(1) Fifty Stars has to be respected, even with 58kg. He’s building very nicely this prep and did run 2^nd to Fierce Impact in this race last year. He loves Flemington and will be hitting the line strongly before backing up next week in the Mackinnon.

(9) Rock will need luck from barrier 2 but was very strong late from an impossible position in the Epsom last start. He put 3.9L on Chief Ironside at Newcastle, but Chief Ironside was first up and meets him better at the weights.

(16) King’s Legacy is a very interesting runner. He was hard in the market for the Caulfield Guineas but failed, apparently not handling the track particularly well. Off his Golden Rose run he’d be right in this, and Boss takes the ride from a perfect barrier 6. Very tough race and I’m happy to have small plays on Chief Ironside, The Velvet King, and King’s Legacy.

Top Pick – (14) Chief Ironside $26 TAB

Danger – (16) King’s Legacy $21 Palmerbet

Value – (11) The Velvet King $51 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Chief Ironside, 0.25 units WIN King’s Legacy, 0.25 units win The Velvet King

Odds Last Updated: November 1, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

14 mares down the straight over 1100m, with the current favourite (3) Diamond Effort. She was scratched from the Manikato because the track was too firm (it was close to a firm 2). She clearly brings the best form lines, coming off a narrow 2^nd to Dirty Work in the Schillaci and a desperately unlucky 5^th in the Moir. Her one run down the straight was a soft win in bm84 grade, so at least we know she handles it fine. She’s thrown in at the weights with 57kg – with a rating of 104 she’s clearly the highest rated horse and only has to concede 2kg to a few horses. She looks the safe way to end the day and deserves to be favourite.

(4) California Zimbol narrowly held off (8) Fituese at Caulfield last start. Fituese started favourite and couldn’t quite reel California Zimbol in, who got a very soft tempo up front and had the turn of foot. Fituese draws barrier one which isn’t ideal, but with a stronger tempo I’d lean her way of the two.

(2) Fiesta was a good winner last start but drops back to 1100m here. She’s 2/2 at the distance, but those runs were a long time ago and she’s been racing over 1200/1400m more recently but is certainly good enough to win this.

The one that can improve 2^nd up is (1) Exhilarates. She was given no hope first up behind Fiesta, sitting 4 wide on speed working the whole race, and even at the Caulfield chute that’s not ideal. She’s generally much better 2^nd up and did run within a length of Dawn Passage in Queensland when 2^nd up last prep. The knock is dropping back to 1100m, as her best form is between 1200-1400, but at the odds she could be the blowout.

Top Pick – (3) Diamond Effort $3.75 Bet365

Value – (1) Exhilarates $19 Bet365

Betting Strategy – 2 units WIN Diamond Effort, 0.5 units WIN Exhilarates