Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, August 7th

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Tricky race but I have to side with (3) Schabau given his class. He was clearly in need of the run first up, drifting in the market with Jack Hill aboard, going back in the field and he did have a chequered passage in the straight. His last 100m was very good and whilst he struggled to win last prep, the horses he was losing (narrowly) to were Persan, Lord Belvedere, Orderofthegarter and Steel Prince. It just looks stronger form, Prebble takes the ride, smaller field suits and he gets in well at the weights.

(1) Dr Drill ran 2nd last start where Schabau ran 8th, but the query with him is getting out to 2530m. He was at 2000m last start and I think that probably sees him out. Definitely classy enough to win and very tough to doubt Maher/Eustace in a staying race but he might struggle late.

(4) South Pacific was poor last start in my opinion. Perhaps a firmer deck and a slight drop back in trip can help. He was far too good two back at this T/D but that was against real off season horses.

(5) One More Try is only 3rd up which is some query but did hit the line well in the same race at Schabau last start.

Tip: (3) Schabau- $4.40 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Schabau

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Tough new season 3yo race. (1) Sharp Response has to carry 60kg but hasn’t done much wrong in three career starts, the only defeat coming to Jigsaw. Getting out to 1300m last start suited and it was a tough win out wide.

(3) Sunfall was unlucky last start at Caulfield and has the 1400m run under his belt now in a decent race. Going to get back in the field with Kah on but Flemington probably suits better than Caulfield.

(5) Forgot You can win off its performance in start number 2 when 3.8L off Saif and Lightsaber in the VRC Sires. He’s jumped out well and should get a nice run from barrier 3.

If I were to take one out of the Sharp Response lead up it’d be (10) Italian Poet. He got into an awful spot from barrier 1, last on the fence and held up until about the 250m mark. He’s a big striding horse with a slightly awkward gait (think Verry Elleegant) so I think Flemington, drawn wide will definitely suit. He also gets in with 51.5kg after Kelly’s claim, meeting Sharp Response 5kg better at the weights despite starting shorter at $7 in the market.

Tip: (10) Italian Poet- $21.00/4.33 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Italian Poet

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 1:16pm (AEDT)

Always had an opinion of (4) Lombardo. He showed plenty of promise as a 3yo, running good late splits as a 3yo at this T/D when not far off the likes of Hi Stranger. He resumed off a long spell on a heavy track at Morphettville, had to carry 61.5kg and I much prefer him on a good track. Gets Kah on and has only had 5 starts so there’s plenty of upside.

(3) Zorro’s Dream is flying but just can’t seem to win a race. Like him down the straight at 1100m but barrier 2 isn’t ideal- he might be in the wrong part of the track and in traffic, which might mean another minor placing.

(10) Ashford Street comes out of a strong race behind Sacred Palace but did carry 51.5kg there and got a good run on speed. Goes up to 56kg after Bull’s claim but is flying this prep and can measure up.

(1) Overkill has been gelded since last prep and did run a narrow 3rd to Hi Stranger first up last prep in bm78 grade. His one go down the straight was very poor with no real excuse, so not sure what to do with him here.

Backing Lombardo but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a slightly better price, even with Kah on and a strong SP profile.

Tip: (4) Lombardo- $3.40 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Lombardo

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

With Froggy back on, (7) Lindhout can bounce back in a big way. She wasn’t suited last start by how fast they went, meaning she got a mile back and had to chase a long way out. Even still I don’t love Hefel on this horse- she’s never really seemed to click with it and Froggy won on her at this T/D two back very impressively. They shouldn’t go as fast in front here meaning he can settle her down and nothing will be able to match her last 600m.

(3) Melodeon wasn’t suited last week behind Imperial Lad and will improve out to 1400m in mare’s grade on the quick back up. Melham replacing Hefel suits and the fresh run was good.

(13) Turaath comes out of the midweeks but we’ve seen plenty of times that the difference in class isn’t that great. The win last start was good and she’s on the up.

(6) Faithful Diamond can improve. No idea what happened last start because she was uncharacteristically awful, beaten nearly 13L over 1600m behind Chief Altony. She was airborne prior over 1400m and with a freshen up she can run a race at huge odds.

Tip: (7) Lindhout- $2.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (6) Faithful Diamond- $101/18 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3.5 units WIN Lindhout, 0.25 units E/W Faithful Diamond

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

Cracking race with some very promising horses engaged. Going to follow up with (15) Miss Albania after running first up at Caulfield where she was heavily backed and not ridden to her strengths whatsoever. She went incredibly slow out in front, was headed by the chasers before Willo asked her for an effort and she couldn’t sprint with them. She’s shown her best asset is to go fast in front, so with that run under the belt I’m sure they’ll be more aggressive. I think she’s a handy mare and although Flemington is a query, the price is fair.

(12) Deep Speed was a good winner first up and is another interesting horse down the straight first time. He beat a good field there and will improve off that after running out of fitness the last 100m. Drawn out wide near Miss Albania which will be interesting.

(2) Oxley Road has won down the straight which will help. He won his first two starts last prep nicely, but he beat nothing on debut and I think he was flattered after that, beating It’sourtime who was coming back from an incredibly brutal 1400m run and was likely flat. Barrier one also not ideal so I’m risking here.

(11) Yulong Storm won for us at $41 last start and loves the straight. Comes up against some progressive horses here but is going very well.

Equal staking Miss Albania and Deep Speed. Either is a winning result but the mare would be ideal.

Tip: (15) Miss Albania- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (12) Deep Speed- $4.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Miss Albania, 1 unit WIN Deep Speed

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Does really look 3 winning chances and the market reflects that. (1) Red Can Man looks suited up to 1400m and also on a drier track because he hasn’t let down on two soft track runs this prep, but won well on a good surface. Has to win with 3kg claimer Madi Lloyd on but should roll forward and sit just behind the speed.

(7) King Magnus is airborne having won his last two, the latest in open handicap grade when showing a very nice turn of foot. Stays right down in the weights with 51.5kg and will be hard to beat again.

(3) Groundswell has been freshened since a solid run in QLD behind Charleise. He’s got form around this listed level that should see him competitive again and will be in the first 2 in running.

(12) Easy Beast has had zero luck whatsoever in his last two. I’ve been with him at big prices and he’s been stopped dead in his tracks in the straight both times. Teo is a good booking and he might be able to control this race, but this might just be a bit too hard for him.

Can’t confidently steer us into anything here. I think one of Red Can Man or King Magnus likely wins, will be filthy if Easy Beast gets a result and might end up having a couple of sanity dollars on him, but at the current prices I don’t want to get involved.

Tip: (1) Red Can Man- $3.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

(7) Hosier looks very hard to beat but is about his right price at the odds-on quote. Has been ultra-impressive in 3 Australian runs, the latest over 1800m at $1.50 where he led, got an easy time and hardly got out of 2nd gear to win by nearly 4 lengths. This is obviously much harder and he won’t get it all his own way but he very likely wins. I’d bet at $2 and may look to update the strategy if he does get out, so stay tuned.

(4) Tooradin is going well, he looked like he needed one more run to top him off last start after just failing to reel in Falls. With the 2000m run under his belt he should be peaking although may have liked it a bit wetter.

(6) Ghodeleine had no luck whatsoever in a messy race last week at The Valley. Won nicely two back and with luck from barrier 2 can be in the finish, especially to run a place.

(2) Vegas Knight should ensure a good tempo drawn out wide, he has to come across and can run along out in front.

Tip: (7) Hosier- $1.85 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Impossible race but I’m going to have something on (7) Tactical Advantage simply because he has an outstanding 3rd up record with 4 wins from 7 starts. Not sure he’s going as well as he was but he got into an awkward spot in the John Monash along the inside and can improve off that. He is also good down the straight with one win (3rd up) and a midfield effort in a group 2, crossing the line with Banquo who is well in the market here. Drawn perfectly, in form Froggy on, at $81 he’s worth a small nibble.

(5) The Astrologist is flying and just keeps running well. He loves the straight and beat a few of these over this T/D two back. Is a hard horse to get past.

No idea how (8) Banquo didn’t go past The Astrologist last start when Lane was swinging off it at the 200m mark. He needs another win but meets that horse 2.5kg better at the weights and also gets blinkers on for the first time in a while. He wore them in arguably his best career run to date in the Newmarket at this T/D won by Bivouac. He gets onto a good track here which I think will definitely aid his cause.

(3) Aysar is an interesting one first up. Clearly has the talent and gets Kah on first time. Might be better over a bit further but did run 2nd to Portland Sky at 1200m last prep who won an Oakleigh Plate.

Tip: (7) Tactical Advantage- $81.00/19.00 at Bet365

Also Backing: (8) Banquo- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Tactical Advantage, 0.5 units WIN Banquo

Odds Last Updated: August 7, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

Does look a race in two and I think we can back both for a good result. (7) Grinzinger Allee was well backed first up and will come on nicely from that effort. He was running on very well, in the 2nd fastest 600-400, the fastest 400-200m before peaking late to finish 5th behind King Magnus who has won again since. He won 2nd up last prep in a very fast race, gets to Flemington and draws nicely. Would have nearly been a moral if it weren’t for another in the race.

I speak of (13) D’aguilar who returned first up off 78 weeks at just his 5th ever race start and was very good, getting a split and sprinting quickly to put 2.5L on King Magnus, which obviously ties in very well. If you go off that run alone he has to be a huge chance here and if he can stay sound he might be able to go through the grades impressively.

(3) Scottish Dancer is racing well having won three in a row, it was an odd race last start but he did it nicely and despite drawing the carpark should be running on again.

(14) Hasseltoff can improve off the first up run at 1200m which was just too short but might need one more.

Tip: (7) Grinzinger Allee- $5.00 at Bet365

Also Backing: (13) D’aguilar- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Grinzinger Allee, 2.5 units WIN D’aguilar