Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, June 5th

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 11:42am (AEDT)

(2) Grand Promenade is clearly the horse to beat. He was dominant two back when leading and whilst well beaten last start, it was in higher grade to Realm Of Flowers. Gets in with 55kg, Kah takes the ride, he should be winning and the $1.60 suggests as much. No value at that price however and I doubt he gets to even money.

(3) South Pacific is ticking along okay but a good track is a huge concern for this horse and I think he needs it soft to show his best, which he won’t get.

(1) Haky is another ticking along well but has 60kg here and comes out of a strange race where they walked home very slowly.

(7) Vividredsky not the worst roughie/place chance.

Tip: (2) Grand Promenade- $1.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 12:17pm (AEDT)

The two WA fillies hold the majority of the market and I’m siding with (2) La Vina at the bigger price. Her first two wins this prep were very good and I think she was in an unsuitable race last start, dropping back to 1100m down the straight. She looks better suited at 1400m, Olly goes on, draws well enough, should be hard to beat.

(3) Snickerdoodledandy is the clear threat. She looks ready to peak here 3rd up after a solid run last start, giving Standoff 7.5kg. Moody has put Kah on after Hefel and Prebble rode her at her first two this prep, and her best WA form would probably win this, although she likely has to give La Vina a head start unless Kah manages to slide forward and slot in.

(4) Witchfulthinking next best if there were to be an upset, she had all favours at The Bool but still bolted in and will lead here. The La Chevalee form looks solid since her 2nd placing to Kurabui also.

Tip: (2) La Vina- $3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN La Vina

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 12:52pm (AEDT)

(12) Chief Altony looks exceptionally hard to beat and is my best bet of the day. He put the writing on the wall first up with a strong closing effort to Corner Pocket who was better suited at 1100m and with race fitness, and he was utterly dominant last start at Ballarat. It was on a heavy track which is the slight query, but he came from near last and put them away in the blink of an eye. He’s performed well on good tracks in the past and in a race of horses who have found their level, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make it to listed/group 3 grade this year.

(5) Left Hand Man is racing very well and maps nicely from barrier 6. He ties in through Corner Pocket from last start at Sandown.

(9) Beehunter beat Left Hand Man home at Sandown and his best form would be a strong danger to Chief Altony, but he’s so inconsistent and will need plenty of luck from barrier 2.

(3) Thought Of That is up to this grade and interestingly gets Kah on but is another that mixes his form. Should ensure a decent tempo from out wide.

Tip: (12) Chief Altony- $2.30 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Chief Altony

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)

Perhaps the most fascinating race of the day, with the third of Black Caviar’s progeny (7) Invincible Caviar set to debut, and I’m surprised she isn’t shorter. I thought her jumpouts were quite strong at Pakenham- she was given a quiet time in the first and did it under her own steam, and they really saw what she could do in the second, being ridden out but putting a space on the others. Perhaps it’s the jockey booking (Higgins has ridden her in trackwork) keeping her price up but from what I’ve seen she looks a big, strong 2yo that might be Black Caviar’s best so far.

(9) Prasiolite is the other I’m keen to be with at double figure odds. She comes down from Sydney after debuting at Gosford where Naples ran 2nd, who was 3rd on debut to Fake Love beating home a luckless Anamoe. Waller gave her a spell and she was solid on the Kenso track behind a couple of smart horses, finishing less than 3L off Verne, who bolted in on Wednesday. It’s not often Kah rides for Waller and this looks like very shrewd placement.

(10) Seonee hit the ling strongly on debut at Geelong off the back of a good jumpout, although I’m not sure that race was much good. Barrier 1 is some concern also.

(8) Panda’s Post was beaten by a good one at Warrnambool on debut and could improve onto a drier track.

Tip: (7) Invincible Caviar- $7.00 at Ladbrokes

Value: (9) Prasiolite- $13.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Invincible Caviar, 0.5 units WIN Prasiolite

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 2:07pm (AEDT)

(3) Yulong January looks hard to beat again. He absolutely loves the 1400m at Flemington and was too strong last start, sitting outside the leader and kicking away to win well. I think he’s even better on good tracks, draws barrier 3 so will either lead or be crossed and sit OSL again and looks the high percentage play.

(8) Rubisaki would win this at her best, but she’s not at her best. I thought she was back after her Caulfield run and she showed that in the Sangster, but she had every chance last start and was beaten 3.7L by Brooklyn Hustle, dropping out to finish 5th. My query there was that she may be looking for 1400m, which she does get here, but this will be a good 4 and I think she’d prefer some give. Will need luck from barrier 2 and just looks hard to back off last start.

If Yulong January doesn’t lead, (7) Rox The Castle should. He’s been okay in both runs back from a very long spell, and if he’s going to show something it’ll be here. He’s never gone well down the straight, but getting up to 1400m where his record reads 9 starts, 4 wins and 2 seconds is ideal. He might be past his best but they’ve put an A-grade jockey on in Currie, gets an easy time on speed and at $27 he’s not the worst bet.

(4) Aramayo was one of my horses to follow after sticking on very well in the Straight Six, but the market hasn’t missed him. Draws wide, likely goes back and hits the line, 1600m 3rd up is where I want to find him.

Tip: (3) Yulong January- $3.20 at Sportsbet

Value: (7) Rox The Castle- $27.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Yulong January, 0.25 units E/W Rox The Castle

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

Tough race. (10) Four Leaf Riot was one of the biggest maiden winners I’ve seen in recent times at Kilmore, going straight to the front and putting the others out of screen to win by 8L. That was on a heavy track, so a good track at Flemington is a completely different scenario. Interesting to see how she goes.

(8) Way To Go Paula was perhaps found out a bit in the Adelaide Guineas behind Cherry Tortoni, somehow starting $5 in the market and beaten 7.5L. The form prior was good for a race like this and she gets Kah on.

(7) Standoff was a huge winner last start in a strong race. Jumps up 4kg in the weights and will get back again, but if she can repeat that she’ll be hard to hold out.

(5) Michigan has had a let-up but is a handy horse and should keep progressing.

Happy to sit this one out.

Tip: (10) Four Leaf Riot- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 3:27pm (AEDT)

Going to side with (2) Our Lone Star here at each way odds. He was 4 weeks between runs heading into last start and I think fitness just gave out late after looming like he’d win or go very close. Gets Currie replacing Neindorf, draws barrier 2 to sit just behind the speed, and going off relative SP’s from last start, and the fact that he beat Horrifying and Redwood Shadow two back, I’m happy to be with him.

(3) Reuber keeps racing well and went for home early last start, only nabbed late by Horrifying, with Our Lone Star 2.5L away. Reuber started $10 last start to Our Lone Star’s $8.50, and here they are at $4 and $8.50 respectively, and Our Lone Star gets a jockey upgrade and added fitness. If Reuber can slot in off the speed from the barrier he’ll be hard to beat but I don’t think he’s much value.

(9) Marcolt was backed off the map with 51kg last start. From memory I think he opened around $21-26 and started $7, hitting the line very well from a mile back. Jumps back up to 54.5kg (meeting Reuber 2kg worse and will get a long way back again, but looks progressive.

(5) Redwood Shadow went in the sack file last start after I was very keen and thought he just battled to the line. I think he’d be better getting to the outside of horses and Kah going on was almost enough to sway me, but he needs to win one.

Tip: (2) Our Lone Star- $8.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Our Lone Star

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 4:07pm (AEDT)

(2) All Of Brighton was a big winner for us at this T/D last start, coming from last down the outside to win well. He’s getting up in the weights, although relative to the others he’s in well enough, but barrier 1 is some query. He clearly loves the straight, it’s just whether he’ll be as effective making an inside run, or if Dee can manage to somehow get him to the outside.

(5) Curran beat home most of these first up at Caulfield and chased home Ayrton last start which obviously reads well. He meets All Of Brighton 2kg better for doing so that day, but meets Yulong Command 5kg worse. Back to 1100m and the straight first time are the queries.

(3) Yulong Command as mentioned meets Curran 5kg better for a narrow defeat after setting a cracking pace at Caulfield. He tried the same tactics again last start and faded, beaten 6.9L by Ayrton. Kah goes on which helps but the straight is a big query.

(9) The Big Easy has done nothing wrong and keeps racing well whilst (1) Muntaseera was unlucky last week behind Sartorial Splendor but rises a whopping 10kg in the weights.

Incredibly open race. I wouldn’t be shocked if most of these win- they all have intertwining form, SP’s and weights. Sticking with All Of Brighton because I think he’s the best straight track horse, and backing Curran too because he could be the best horse (aside from Muntaseera who I don’t like carrying 61kg).

Tip: (2) All Of Brighton- $7.00 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (5) Curran- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN All Of Brighton, 0.75 units WIN Curran

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 4:37pm (AEDT)

Another incredibly open race. My best value of the day at huge odds is (7) Master Chum. I think both runs this prep have been very good, hitting the line from a long way back behind Groundswell first up over 1400m, and getting too far back last start in group 3 company, 3.9L off Lord Vladivostok and Dr Drill. He gets to 2000m third up, where he has run 2nd twice, and I think he’s going better than he has since Summer last year. Gets a big jockey upgrade with Stackhouse and I think he’ll run much better than the $51/61 available.

(10) Fifth Position looks to have the most upside. I was keen on him at The Bool and he was backed off the map to start $3.10. The stable were wary, suggesting he might need the run, and he wasn’t beaten far when trying to make a run from the back out wide, which was not easy to do all carnival. The query is getting onto a good track, because from everything I’ve seen/read, he’s much better on wet tracks.

(13) Excelman was given an outstanding ride by Kah last start to bolt in and can go on with it now.

Had (16) Lunar Flare as a horse to follow and think she’s ready to run a huge race, but she draws very wide and likely gets a long way back here, and the market certainly hasn’t missed her at $6.50. Can win, but I’ll have to let her go at those odds.

(6) Desert Path was quite good first up and is good enough on his best form, but might need one or two more to hit peak fitness. Put him in your quaddie.

 

Tip: (7) Master Chum- $61.00 at Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (10) Fifth Position- $6.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Master Chum, 0.5 units WIN Fifth Position