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Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, June 5th

Racing at Flemington on Saturday and Trent Crebbin’s best value is $61 in Race 9.

flemington racing tips

Racing at Flemington on Saturday as the build up to the Winter Series’ Finals starts to heat up.

Trent Crebbin has done the form and his best value is currently $61 in the last race. 

The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is out 8 metres.

Best Bet- Race 3 (12) Chief Altony

Best Value- Race 9 (7) Master Chum

PlayUp

0

Race 1

Vrc Member Emma Sargeant Plate (2500m)
11:40am (AEDT)

Race 1

Vrc Member Emma Sargeant Plate (2500m)
11:40am (AEDT)

1. Haky (7) J: Ben Allen (60kg) T: Archie Alexander
66.56.576.16
2. Grand Promenade (2) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1.31.351.31.351.31.3
3. South Pacific (8) J: Damian Lane (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4. Norway (6) J: Michael Dee (54.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
5. Social Element (1) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
1513131312.815
6. Silence The Stars (3) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: Deanne Taylor
464131264541
7. Vividredsky (4) J: Dean Holland (54kg) T: P A Preusker
1313151415.614
8. Smokin' Pierro (5) J: Lachlan King (54kg) T: Michelle Payne
1818191813.217

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 11:42am (AEDT)

(2) Grand Promenade is clearly the horse to beat. He was dominant two back when leading and whilst well beaten last start, it was in higher grade to Realm Of Flowers. Gets in with 55kg, Kah takes the ride, he should be winning and the $1.60 suggests as much. No value at that price however and I doubt he gets to even money.

(3) South Pacific is ticking along okay but a good track is a huge concern for this horse and I think he needs it soft to show his best, which he won’t get.

(1) Haky is another ticking along well but has 60kg here and comes out of a strange race where they walked home very slowly.

(7) Vividredsky not the worst roughie/place chance.

Tip: (2) Grand Promenade- $1.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

0

Race 2

Vrc Member Ben Edney (Bm84) (1400m)
12:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Vrc Member Ben Edney (Bm84) (1400m)
12:15pm (AEDT)

1. Jay Jay D'ar (7) J: Mark Zahra (58kg) T: K L Corstens
262631262523
2. La Vina (6) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: L Smith
3.43.43.43.43.453.2
3. Snickerdoodledandy (10) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg) T: P G Moody
2.933.13.12.853
4. Witchfulthinking (3) J: Patrick Moloney (56.5kg) T: Andrew Noblet
7777.57.17
5. Don'ttelltheboss (2) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (55.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
5.554.85.55.65
6. Mrs Beckham (4) J: Daniel Moor (54.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
998.5108.29.5
7. Faithful Diamond (5) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (54kg) T: J S Bull
8. Over There (8) J: Will Price (54kg) T: S Foster
677161616771
9. Imperial Dawn (9) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: Scott Cameron
126126101126101101
10. Make Mine Hennessy (1) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: Saab Hasan
353441413231

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 12:17pm (AEDT)

The two WA fillies hold the majority of the market and I’m siding with (2) La Vina at the bigger price. Her first two wins this prep were very good and I think she was in an unsuitable race last start, dropping back to 1100m down the straight. She looks better suited at 1400m, Olly goes on, draws well enough, should be hard to beat.

(3) Snickerdoodledandy is the clear threat. She looks ready to peak here 3rd up after a solid run last start, giving Standoff 7.5kg. Moody has put Kah on after Hefel and Prebble rode her at her first two this prep, and her best WA form would probably win this, although she likely has to give La Vina a head start unless Kah manages to slide forward and slot in.

(4) Witchfulthinking next best if there were to be an upset, she had all favours at The Bool but still bolted in and will lead here. The La Chevalee form looks solid since her 2nd placing to Kurabui also.

Tip: (2) La Vina- $3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN La Vina

0

Race 3

Vrc Member Lesley Millson-Bm78 (1400m)
12:50pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Vrc Member Lesley Millson-Bm78 (1400m)
12:50pm (AEDT)

1. Sky Punch (1) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (62kg) T: Michael Hickmott
2. Maritana (3) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (60kg) T: J R Welsh
262019212023
3. Thought Of That (12) J: Ms Jamie Kah (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1010101110.610
4. Design Rouge (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: S P Nichols
272621262326
5. Left Hand Man (6) J: Will Price (59.5kg) T: Jon O'connor
101111111011
6. Mr Tipla (14) J: Luke Currie (59.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
1516161615.216
7. Darlamax (9) J: Arron Lynch (59kg) T: Andrew Homann
464151513841
8. Jittery Jack (10) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (58.5kg) T: J D Matheson
516151514151
9. Beehunter (2) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: J D Sadler
65.55.565.65.5
10. Shakespear'sgalley (5) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: Saab Hasan
151151151201221151
11. Petruchio (11) J: Ben Allen (57.5kg) T: Archie Alexander
2120211921.519
12. Chief Altony (7) J: Mark Zahra (57kg) T: Alexander Rae
2.152.152.152.22.252.1
13. Denero (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57kg) T: Michael Huglin
414141414341
14. Just Folk (15) J: Michael Dee (57kg) T: Joshua Julius
1414121311.814
15. Prince Of Helena (16) J: Jake Duffy (55.5kg) T: Craig Weeding
16. Raise 'Em Up (13) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: Matthew Brown

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 12:52pm (AEDT)

(12) Chief Altony looks exceptionally hard to beat and is my best bet of the day. He put the writing on the wall first up with a strong closing effort to Corner Pocket who was better suited at 1100m and with race fitness, and he was utterly dominant last start at Ballarat. It was on a heavy track which is the slight query, but he came from near last and put them away in the blink of an eye. He’s performed well on good tracks in the past and in a race of horses who have found their level, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make it to listed/group 3 grade this year.

(5) Left Hand Man is racing very well and maps nicely from barrier 6. He ties in through Corner Pocket from last start at Sandown.

(9) Beehunter beat Left Hand Man home at Sandown and his best form would be a strong danger to Chief Altony, but he’s so inconsistent and will need plenty of luck from barrier 2.

(3) Thought Of That is up to this grade and interestingly gets Kah on but is another that mixes his form. Should ensure a decent tempo from out wide.

Tip: (12) Chief Altony- $2.30 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Chief Altony

0

Race 4

Vrc Member Philip Jacobsen Hcp (1100m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Vrc Member Philip Jacobsen Hcp (1100m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

1. Commands The Field (10) J: Daniel Moor (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
6666.56.25.5
2. Gotta Pulse (3) J: Arron Lynch (59kg) T: Shane Stockdale
717181818361
3. Moon Over Alice (11) J: Ben Allen (59kg) T: Daniel Bowman
111110121111
4. Argentia (9) J: Mark Zahra (58kg) T: A & S Freedman
9999.57.99
5. For Real Life (5) J: Dean Holland (58kg) T: L & T Corstens
616151515951
6. In Her Stride (12) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: J P Salanitri
232626313121
7. Invincible Caviar (4) J: Brian Higgins (58kg) T: P G Moody
55.54.8555
8. Panda's Post (7) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
9. Prasiolite (2) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58kg) T: C J Waller
10. Seonee (1) J: Billy Egan (58kg) T: Patrick Payne
3.63.63.53.63.63.4
11. Sistine Explorer (6) J: Ben Melham (58kg) T: Andrew Noblet
6.56.56.56.56.46.5
12. Viviane (8) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
1211111010.611

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)

Perhaps the most fascinating race of the day, with the third of Black Caviar’s progeny (7) Invincible Caviar set to debut, and I’m surprised she isn’t shorter. I thought her jumpouts were quite strong at Pakenham- she was given a quiet time in the first and did it under her own steam, and they really saw what she could do in the second, being ridden out but putting a space on the others. Perhaps it’s the jockey booking (Higgins has ridden her in trackwork) keeping her price up but from what I’ve seen she looks a big, strong 2yo that might be Black Caviar’s best so far.

(9) Prasiolite is the other I’m keen to be with at double figure odds. She comes down from Sydney after debuting at Gosford where Naples ran 2nd, who was 3rd on debut to Fake Love beating home a luckless Anamoe. Waller gave her a spell and she was solid on the Kenso track behind a couple of smart horses, finishing less than 3L off Verne, who bolted in on Wednesday. It’s not often Kah rides for Waller and this looks like very shrewd placement.

(10) Seonee hit the ling strongly on debut at Geelong off the back of a good jumpout, although I’m not sure that race was much good. Barrier 1 is some concern also.

(8) Panda’s Post was beaten by a good one at Warrnambool on debut and could improve onto a drier track.

Tip: (7) Invincible Caviar- $7.00 at Ladbrokes

Value: (9) Prasiolite- $13.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Invincible Caviar, 0.5 units WIN Prasiolite

0

Race 5

Vrc Member T Gunnersen Am Hcp (1400m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Vrc Member T Gunnersen Am Hcp (1400m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

1. Reykjavik (11) J: Dean Yendall (59kg) T: L Smith
141415151315
2. Harlech (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58.5kg) T: M D Moroney
353441414034
3. Yulong January (3) J: Mark Zahra (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.32.32.252.42.452.3
4. Aramayo (12) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: C J Waller
212121211621
5. All Too Huiying (6) J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg) T: P Stokes
919181818181
6. Odeon (4) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
5.55.55.5655
7. Rox The Castle (7) J: Luke Currie (56.5kg) T: Ms K Edwards
2726262622.526
8. Rubisaki (2) J: Billy Egan (56.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
54.64.44.55.14.6
9. Galaxy Raider (1) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: G M Begg
192021212021
10. Vinland (10) J: Damien Oliver (55kg) T: P G Moody
11. Viral (8) J: Damian Lane (54kg) T: D T O'brien
12. Ocular (5) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: Shea Eden
101010101010

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 2:07pm (AEDT)

(3) Yulong January looks hard to beat again. He absolutely loves the 1400m at Flemington and was too strong last start, sitting outside the leader and kicking away to win well. I think he’s even better on good tracks, draws barrier 3 so will either lead or be crossed and sit OSL again and looks the high percentage play.

(8) Rubisaki would win this at her best, but she’s not at her best. I thought she was back after her Caulfield run and she showed that in the Sangster, but she had every chance last start and was beaten 3.7L by Brooklyn Hustle, dropping out to finish 5th. My query there was that she may be looking for 1400m, which she does get here, but this will be a good 4 and I think she’d prefer some give. Will need luck from barrier 2 and just looks hard to back off last start.

If Yulong January doesn’t lead, (7) Rox The Castle should. He’s been okay in both runs back from a very long spell, and if he’s going to show something it’ll be here. He’s never gone well down the straight, but getting up to 1400m where his record reads 9 starts, 4 wins and 2 seconds is ideal. He might be past his best but they’ve put an A-grade jockey on in Currie, gets an easy time on speed and at $27 he’s not the worst bet.

(4) Aramayo was one of my horses to follow after sticking on very well in the Straight Six, but the market hasn’t missed him. Draws wide, likely goes back and hits the line, 1600m 3rd up is where I want to find him.

Tip: (3) Yulong January- $3.20 at Sportsbet

Value: (7) Rox The Castle- $27.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Yulong January, 0.25 units E/W Rox The Castle

0

Race 6

Vrc Member Brian Lindsay Hcp (1400m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Vrc Member Brian Lindsay Hcp (1400m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

1. Mark Of The Man (3) J: Mark Zahra (58.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell
1615171717.214
2. Summaroca (12) J: Craig Newitt (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
3. Japery (6) J: Billy Egan (57.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
1817141616.814
4. Cumberbatch (7) J: Luke Currie (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
191918211919
5. Michigan (11) J: Damian Lane (55.5kg) T: M D Moroney
999.59.599
6. Volatore (14) J: Michael Dee (55.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1211101112.211
7. Standoff (13) J: Damien Oliver (55kg) T: Grant & Peter Dalziel
8. Way To Go Paula (8) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54kg) T: P Stokes
3.83.93.744.053.9
9. Sweet Sixteen (5) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: P & P Snowden
10. Four Leaf Riot (9) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: Scott Cameron
2.92.82.82.82.62.9
11. Bengal Bandit (15) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
12. Foxy Frida (2) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: Andrew Noblet
1111111211.811
13. The Dec (4) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
14. Yulong Impact (16) J: Will Price (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
15. Baglioni (10) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: G Eurell
126101151126101101
16. Just A Tribute (1) J: Dean Holland (54kg) T: J P Salanitri
1212111211.811

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

Tough race. (10) Four Leaf Riot was one of the biggest maiden winners I’ve seen in recent times at Kilmore, going straight to the front and putting the others out of screen to win by 8L. That was on a heavy track, so a good track at Flemington is a completely different scenario. Interesting to see how she goes.

(8) Way To Go Paula was perhaps found out a bit in the Adelaide Guineas behind Cherry Tortoni, somehow starting $5 in the market and beaten 7.5L. The form prior was good for a race like this and she gets Kah on.

(7) Standoff was a huge winner last start in a strong race. Jumps up 4kg in the weights and will get back again, but if she can repeat that she’ll be hard to hold out.

(5) Michigan has had a let-up but is a handy horse and should keep progressing.

Happy to sit this one out.

Tip: (10) Four Leaf Riot- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

0

Race 7

Vrc Member Maureen Salter Hcp (2000m)
3:25pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Vrc Member Maureen Salter Hcp (2000m)
3:25pm (AEDT)

1. Running Cloud (13) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Nathan Dunn
464141413634
2. Our Lone Star (2) J: Luke Currie (57.5kg) T: Sean Mott
76.566.56.86.5
3. Reuber (11) J: Craig Newitt (57.5kg) T: Ms C Alderson
5555.555
4. Namakwa (4) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
9.5998.59.79
5. Redwood Shadow (7) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
65.555.55.64.8
6. Cakewalk Baby (15) J: Michael Poy (55.5kg) T: Ms W Kelly
1919202118.819
7. Eco Warrior (16) J: Damian Lane (54.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
353431342531
8. Furioso (10) J: Damien Oliver (54.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
2626262626.526
9. Marcolt (12) J: Michael Dee (54.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
55554.955.5
10. Sweet Karolina (6) J: Lachlan King (54.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
1212111312.412
11. Oh So Far (5) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: M C Kent
301301151151241251
12. Secret Sheema (20) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: Ben Brisbourne
515151514951
13. Bunchan (18) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: M D Hinton
301301201151221201
14. Notmyfirstrodeo (8) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: G M Begg
20120110112697126
15. Oak Bridge (1) J: Ms Alana Kelly (54kg) T: B & A Mcknight
126201101151151201
16. Token Spirit (17) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
232120211923
17. Almsgiver (14) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: M J Williams
18. El Santo (19) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Dan O'sullivan
19. Uniquely (9) J: Will Price (54kg) T: Dan O'sullivan
20. Next Ride (3) J: Unknown (54kg) T: K & K Keys

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 3:27pm (AEDT)

Going to side with (2) Our Lone Star here at each way odds. He was 4 weeks between runs heading into last start and I think fitness just gave out late after looming like he’d win or go very close. Gets Currie replacing Neindorf, draws barrier 2 to sit just behind the speed, and going off relative SP’s from last start, and the fact that he beat Horrifying and Redwood Shadow two back, I’m happy to be with him.

(3) Reuber keeps racing well and went for home early last start, only nabbed late by Horrifying, with Our Lone Star 2.5L away. Reuber started $10 last start to Our Lone Star’s $8.50, and here they are at $4 and $8.50 respectively, and Our Lone Star gets a jockey upgrade and added fitness. If Reuber can slot in off the speed from the barrier he’ll be hard to beat but I don’t think he’s much value.

(9) Marcolt was backed off the map with 51kg last start. From memory I think he opened around $21-26 and started $7, hitting the line very well from a mile back. Jumps back up to 54.5kg (meeting Reuber 2kg worse and will get a long way back again, but looks progressive.

(5) Redwood Shadow went in the sack file last start after I was very keen and thought he just battled to the line. I think he’d be better getting to the outside of horses and Kah going on was almost enough to sway me, but he needs to win one.

Tip: (2) Our Lone Star- $8.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Our Lone Star

0

Race 8

Vrc Member William Capell Hcp (1100m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Vrc Member William Capell Hcp (1100m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

1. Muntaseera (10) J: Mark Zahra (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2. All Of Brighton (1) J: Michael Dee (57kg) T: Patrick Payne
4.84.84.64.84.854.8
3. Yulong Command (11) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
111110111010
4. Brenlyn's Trooper (8) J: Jake Duffy (55kg) T: Sylvia Thompson
232621212526
5. Curran (3) J: Matthew Cartwright (55kg) T: Ms L Tolson & Ms L Proctor
4.44.244.24.34.2
6. Pioneer River (13) J: Daniel Stackhouse (55kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
1111111210.812
7. Thudson (6) J: Lachlan King (55kg) T: P & P Snowden
121111131011
8. Archipeta Beach (2) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: John Mcardle
9. The Big Easy (4) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
999109.29
10. Great Leveller (15) J: Will Price (54kg) T: Jon O'connor
717181815571
11. Twist Of Fury (12) J: Unknown (54kg) T: D R Brideoake
343121263431
12. Eau Chaude (5) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
464141514741
13. Lunar Hero (14) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: D J Mccarthy
616161615161
14. Sugartown (7) J: Damian Lane (54kg) T: D T O'brien
4.54.53.94.64.354.6
15. The Waterman (9) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: T & C Mcevoy

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 4:07pm (AEDT)

(2) All Of Brighton was a big winner for us at this T/D last start, coming from last down the outside to win well. He’s getting up in the weights, although relative to the others he’s in well enough, but barrier 1 is some query. He clearly loves the straight, it’s just whether he’ll be as effective making an inside run, or if Dee can manage to somehow get him to the outside.

(5) Curran beat home most of these first up at Caulfield and chased home Ayrton last start which obviously reads well. He meets All Of Brighton 2kg better for doing so that day, but meets Yulong Command 5kg worse. Back to 1100m and the straight first time are the queries.

(3) Yulong Command as mentioned meets Curran 5kg better for a narrow defeat after setting a cracking pace at Caulfield. He tried the same tactics again last start and faded, beaten 6.9L by Ayrton. Kah goes on which helps but the straight is a big query.

(9) The Big Easy has done nothing wrong and keeps racing well whilst (1) Muntaseera was unlucky last week behind Sartorial Splendor but rises a whopping 10kg in the weights.

Incredibly open race. I wouldn’t be shocked if most of these win- they all have intertwining form, SP’s and weights. Sticking with All Of Brighton because I think he’s the best straight track horse, and backing Curran too because he could be the best horse (aside from Muntaseera who I don’t like carrying 61kg).

Tip: (2) All Of Brighton- $7.00 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (5) Curran- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN All Of Brighton, 0.75 units WIN Curran

0

Race 9

Vrc Member Otto Kohn (Bm84) (2000m)
4:35pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Vrc Member Otto Kohn (Bm84) (2000m)
4:35pm (AEDT)

1. Declares War (8) J: Campbell Rawiller (64.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
312626343531
2. Dexter You Devil (2) J: Will Price (61.5kg) T: Shayne Cahill
718181818381
3. Portland Jimmy (12) J: Lachlan Neindorf (60kg) T: Patrick Payne
678181817371
4. Significance (15) J: Craig Newitt (59kg) T: P G Moody
464141413541
5. Approach Discreet (9) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: A R Mcgregor
6. Desert Path (3) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: C J Waller
616771716561
7. Master Chum (4) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: R H Wilkinson
343434344141
8. Somerset Maugham (14) J: Ben Melham (58kg) T: D T O'brien
464131342934
9. Maserartie Bay (19) J: Matthew Cartwright (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6.576.576.46.5
10. Fifth Position (6) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
3.943.93.93.64.2
11. Mubariz (13) J: Unknown (57kg) T: C J Waller
12. Vegas Knight (10) J: Mark Zahra (57kg) T: C W Little
1111111210.211
13. Excelman (11) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55.5kg) T: Richard Laming
5.55.55664.8
14. Tooradin (20) J: Ben Allen (55.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
15. Crimson Ace (5) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
1716172118.816
16. Lunar Flare (17) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: G M Begg
4.54.24.24.24.454.6
17. Lamborghini (1) J: Unknown (55.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
91101919110181
18. Duke Of Plumpton (7) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Patrick Payne
19. Nerve Not Verve (16) J: Fred Kersley (54kg) T: M D Moroney
7171811015981
20. Royal Crown (18) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: M C Kent
313131312831

Odds Last Updated: June 5, 2021, 4:37pm (AEDT)

Another incredibly open race. My best value of the day at huge odds is (7) Master Chum. I think both runs this prep have been very good, hitting the line from a long way back behind Groundswell first up over 1400m, and getting too far back last start in group 3 company, 3.9L off Lord Vladivostok and Dr Drill. He gets to 2000m third up, where he has run 2nd twice, and I think he’s going better than he has since Summer last year. Gets a big jockey upgrade with Stackhouse and I think he’ll run much better than the $51/61 available.

(10) Fifth Position looks to have the most upside. I was keen on him at The Bool and he was backed off the map to start $3.10. The stable were wary, suggesting he might need the run, and he wasn’t beaten far when trying to make a run from the back out wide, which was not easy to do all carnival. The query is getting onto a good track, because from everything I’ve seen/read, he’s much better on wet tracks.

(13) Excelman was given an outstanding ride by Kah last start to bolt in and can go on with it now.

Had (16) Lunar Flare as a horse to follow and think she’s ready to run a huge race, but she draws very wide and likely gets a long way back here, and the market certainly hasn’t missed her at $6.50. Can win, but I’ll have to let her go at those odds.

(6) Desert Path was quite good first up and is good enough on his best form, but might need one or two more to hit peak fitness. Put him in your quaddie.

 

Tip: (7) Master Chum- $61.00 at Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (10) Fifth Position- $6.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Master Chum, 0.5 units WIN Fifth Position

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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