Hawkesbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 11th

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Even little race to kick off the program. (1) Kosciusko returns from a spell here and although this is a stable I don’t follow from a betting standpoint, he actually looks well-placed in this event. His record says he’s won once from three starts when first up, which was on debut, but if you dig a little deeper, you’ll see he’s had very little luck in the other first up attempts. Two preps ago he was vetted at the barriers and then sat four-wide without cover, and then last prep, he sat four-wide without cover on the Kensington track and was beaten a length. He has a good record here at Hawkesbury with two wins and a 2^nd from three starts. Gets in well with the claim and conditions should be ideal, so I’m expecting a big run fresh here.

(3) Frozen In Time is the danger, I’d suggest. She ran second last first up in town, but she sat three-wide without cover throughout, so forgive her for that. Kris Lees has two winners from three starters at Hawkesbury this season and this is his only runner of the day.

(2) Feel The Knight is favourite and has to be respected with that 2^nd placing behind Belluci Babe.

Tip: (1) Kosciusko $4.00 Sportsbet

Danger: (3) Frozen In Time $4.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Kosciusko, 0.5 unit WIN Frozen In Time

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Trappy race this, and I’ll be happy to stay out. (2) Brooks Battle is the $2.50 favourite, with the form behind Doubtland obviously looking that which stands out. She’s trialled well twice leading into this and looks the filly to beat, but John O’Shea doesn’t have the strongest record here at Hawkesbury and she looks short enough at that price given her only prior start was as a two-year-old.

(4) Greatest Joy makes some appeal at $8.00. She’s on debut for Waller and of all his runners on the card, this is the only one Nash Rawiller is booked for. That may have some connection to the horse being owned by John Singleton but it’s interesting nonetheless and it’s a positive booking. Her recent trial was sound and barrier 1 should help.

(5) High Tribute is the only runner on the card for Joe Pride, who operates at about 28% here this season, but I thought its form was only moderate, coming off a defeat at Nowra.

(6) Super One Susie also looks short enough given she’s been beaten at Canberra and Kembla in her two starts this prep.

Tip: (4) Greatesty Joy E/W $8.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet.

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another trappy sort of race. (4) Edmond comes here as the even money favourite despite being rolled at $1.70 first up at Newcastle. You’re a braver man than me to be taking the shorts about him again.

(8) Mission Bravo is the way I’d lean if I was betting. He’ll be ready to go first up with three trials under the belt and his recent one was impressive. Mark Newnham has a good record here at Hawkesbury and he should be very competitive.

(1) Big Lion has three placings from his four career starts and also trialled reasonably well leading into his first up run here, while (6) Maramoti looks the best of the Waller runners.

Tip: (8) Mission Bravo $3.65 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Mission Bravo

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

I think (5) Buba is a bet here but I’m hoping the track is soft for her. She might get out a bit in the market if the track is in the good range. I backed her at big odds first up, where she came from last to run 3^rd at Kensington. Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou have three winners from seven runners at Hawkesbury this season and I’m keen to follow up on her today.

(1) Carluca ran 2^nd behind Wairere Falls over 1500m here last start and has been around the mark in all of his recent starts. He’s longer priced in the market than (3) Montesserat despite beating him home last start and meeting him better at the weights. The mile is the only concern – it’s right on the limit for him distance-wise.

(2) Harpo Marx returns as a gelding here today so watch the market on him from this stable, and (4) Aesop’s Fable is a bit of value at $13 getting back onto a firm track second up.

Tip: (5) Buba $4.20 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Buba

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(5) Sahra looks a good thing here. She belted them on debut at Kembla before bumping into North Pacific, who went on to be beaten a nose in the Golden Rose. The only little query is that those were two-year-old races and you always want to see them come back and do it as a three-year-old, but I’m confident she will. At the time of writing, she’s currently sitting at $1.73 on the exchange and $1.60 best price with the corps, which is a touch on the short side, but is she were to get to $1.80+, she would be a bet.

Her stablemate (4) Thudson ran 2^nd to Malkovich first up over 1000m here and looks the only danger.

Tip: (5) Sahra $1.73 Betfair

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Sahra

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The exposed form in this race looks ordinary at best, so I’m banking on a couple of the unraced horses being slightly above that.

(1) Always Sure is on debut for Claire Cunningham and partner Jason Collett. He’s had four trials in total, but the first two of those were earlier in the year. I think his two trials this preparation have both been sound, and I think he can be very competitive here provided he gets a decent run from barrier 8.

(4) Titanium Power draws beside him in barrier 9 and can also be competitive on debut for Joe Pride. He won a trial here at Hawkesbury a month ago and was then given a quieter time of things in his most recent one. The winner of that heat was Mission Bravo who goes around in Race 3 today, so you’ll get a decent guide as to the strength of that form.

Tip: (1) Always Sure $5.10 Sportsbetting

Value: (4) Titanium Power $7.50 Unibet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Always Sure, 0.5 units WIN Titanium Power

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The Ladies Day Cup is the feature of the day. We have four Waller runners engaged, which never makes things easy.

I’m actually keen on the chances of (3) Military Zone, who I think will run a mighty race here. He ran 8^th of 10 first up but you can basically put a line through it as he never really got clear running. His second up record is fantastic, with three wins from five starts. Add on to that a 0.7L 5^th placing second up last prep, and a 2.3L 5^th in last year’s Silver Eagle, where he never got clear. So he really does fire second run back from a spell. He hasn’t won at the mile yet, but he was beaten less than a length in the Scone Cup last prep over this distance, and then got beat 0.3L in a 1600m G3 in Brisbane at the end of last prep. Should get clear running from that gate and he’ll be launching late. $6.00 and $2.25 looks a good bet.

(6) Savacool is probably the best of the Waller runners with Tommy Berry booked to ride. She actually finished 2.3L behind (1) Mantastic two starts back, so you’d think Mantastic would be ahead of her here, especially with the blinkers back on, but he gets Glyn Schofield on which means you can practically rule a line through him.

(2) Looks Like Elvis was 1.6L off Probabeel in a Group 1 two starts ago, but it’s now been a year since he won and he always seems to find trouble.

Watch the market on (7) Black On Gold and (9) Mushaireb first up.

Tip: (3) Military Zone $6.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN, 2 units PLC Military Zone

Odds Last Updated: February 10, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

I think (5) Fastconi can bounce back today. She won well two starts ago before failing in town last start when caught wide throughout. Tommy Berry takes over today and she gets the tongue tie on for the first time, so expect her to go well.

The $26 about (11) Tri Nations looks over the odds and value. I always respect Edward Cummings horses when they run here at Hawkesbury, and this horse did win first up last prep.

(10) Segrill has a good record at this track. He might need the run but all of his performances here at Hawkesbury have been full of merit. $21 is a decent price.

(1) Donandkim next best.

Tip: (5) Fastconi $5.00 Bet365

Value: (11) Tri Nations $26 Bet365 & (10) Segrill $21 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Fastconi, 0.5 units WIN Tri Nations, 0.25 units WIN Segrill

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(4) Donnachiara won here over 1800m last start in similar grade and finds another winnable race today. The horse that ran 3^rd behind her has since come out and won at Gosford on Tuesday, which is a good sign for the form.

(2) Tampering has run 2^nd in three of his four starts this preparation and probably finds an easier race today than what he’s been contesting. Has to be rated highly.

(3) Stick ‘Em Up ran last at Kembla last start but it was on rain-affected ground, which she doesn’t race well on. Berry goes on today from the inside barrier and she should be in the mix.

Tip: (4) Donnachiara $4.40 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Donnachiara