Mornington Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 18th

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Not exactly an inspiring start- a 2025m maiden where the odds on favourite is winless through 10 starts. I speak of (3) Prosecutor who does look an obvious chance. His run last start over basically the same distance was strong in a handy enough maiden, and with that 2000m run under his belt he should be cherry ripe for this.

(5) Love The Look is the 2^nd elect and potentially has more scope to improve having only had the 3 starts. Her last start run was okay when running 3^rd, beaten nearly 6L. On breeding, the step up in trip should definitely suit.

Outside of the two market elects they look a real bunch of slowies, and from a betting perspective I’m more than happy to stay out.

 Top Pick: (3) Prosecutor $2.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

A bit more interest here in a decent maiden. (5) Divine Wit makes some appeal on debut. He’s had three jumpouts and has looked strong over 1200m. He’s trained here and should go forward from a middle barrier.

(8) Royal Gun Salute brings some strong form lines behind Celestial Sol and Zeppa from last prep. If he’s ready to go first up he’ll be hard to beat, as will (11) Lariat for the Maher/Eustace camp. His first up run at Traralgon was good as the odds on favourite and his debut run last prep was good in a strong race.

They look the clear three, with a slight leaning to Divine Wit on debut who looks set to run a big race at his home track.

Top Pick: (5) Divine Wit $7.1 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Divine Wit

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

(1) Ain’t She Cute looks ready to win. She has race fitness on her side and was good last start. I’d perhaps prefer her up to 1400m now, but she maps beautifully and can get away with this.

(8) Starlight Scope is on debut and has jumped out well. She’s another making a home track debut that draws well.

(9) Unhinched made her stable debut last start and was a bit plain, finishing behind Ain’t She Cute. Her form last prep was outstanding for a maiden behind Personal and if she found that would be very hard to beat.

Plenty of other chances in a deep maiden.

Top Pick: (1) Ain’t She Cute $4.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ain’t She Cute

Odds Last Updated: December 16, 2020, 12:54am (AEDT)

I would’ve liked to find (7) Singleton Park here, because he simply didn’t handle the heavy conditions last start behind Shelby Cobra. Unfortunately, both career starts he has settled a long way back, and that will be tough at Mornington.

(1) Blazing Rebel maps much better from barrier 5. He was well backed and endured a tough run last start but kept finding to just miss a horse who controlled the race outside the lead. There was a big gap back to 3^rd there too. John Allen sticks and he should get a good run near the speed.

(5) Orrong Road next best coming back from a stronger race, but he’s had plenty of chances and will have to work early.

Top Pick: (1) Blazing Rebel $2.70 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Blazing Rebel

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The problem here is I can’t seem to work out what will lead. There are a few that might lob there, and I think whatever lands in a nice spot will fight out the finish. Getting too far back at this course, especially in a staying race that has no pace on paper will be hard.

(4) Fioritura can land in the 1-1 with a bit of intent early. He had a tough run last start and if he handles the quick backup, he can use the added fitness to grind this out. Damian Lane takes the ride, one of only three for the day which is a huge positive.

I have queries on (6) Sir Dana at the trip but he’s going well enough to win in this grade.

Top Pick: (4) Fioritura $4.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Fioritura

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Better race quality wise, but it’s still a nightmare. Pretty keen to be against current favourite (5) Lobster Noodles, however. She’s coming off a race at Flemington and finished midfield, but she had every conceivable chance there. Her form prior was in bm58 grade and this is much harder. She does map well and probably leads from barrier 1, but at $3 she’s very short.

(1) Diamondsandbubbles deserves to be favourite in my opinion. She comes here third up and looks ready to peak. She ran 2^nd (albeit beaten 5L) to Kenya last start, who came out and pushed Junipal all the way at Sandown on Saturday. Her best form is good enough in this grade – she bolted in one night at Pakenham by 3.5L in a similar race.

The obvious knock is the 3kg apprentice, coming up against some of the better Victorian jockeys in a small field, which often results in tactical battles. I think she could continue to get out a bit in the market because of the trainer/jockey combo, so I’ll have faith in the best horse getting the job done.

Top Pick: (1) Diamondsandbubbles $3.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Diamondsandbubbles

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Handy race. I really liked the first up effort of (1) Capodanno, who was making his Australian debut. He jumped well, sat handy and despite being hard ridden, he really picked up over the last 100m to run 3^rd to Mrs Beckham. The step up to 1500m is a huge positive, and he brings some decent NZ form over 1600-2000m with some very strong SP’s. The Shea Eden camp is flying at the moment too, and he draws perfectly in barrier 5. (2) Kuzco Lad led all the way at this T/D last start. He drew barrier 1 there and draws 11 here with plenty of pace drawn inside. If he gets across easily, he’ll be very hard to run down. (6) Independent Road might need one more, but he ran very well first up over 1300m. He just got a long way back and wasn’t sharp enough at the trip. He couldn’t win a race last prep but clearly brings the best form through some 3yo middle distance races. Jamie Mott replaces the apprentice, but he will get a fair way back from a wide barrier again.

Top Pick: (1) Capodanno $5.10 Sportsbetting

Saver: (6) Independent Road $9.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Capodanno, 0.5 units WIN Independent Road

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Really does look a race in two here. I was very keen on (3) Fundraiser last start before the meeting was abandoned. His first up run behind The Astrologist was very good, he’ll just need a bit of luck from barrier 8 to run down the main danger, who is (8) Brazen Song.

She ran well first up over this T/D, having to work early but only being beaten 2.2L. She mixed her form a bit last prep but started to hit her straps late with some strong efforts behind some good horses, including a 2^nd to Felicia and a decent midfield effort behind Cordilla. There does look to be plenty of pressure here, and unless she really gets it her own way, I’m confident Fundraiser will be running her down.

Top Pick: (3) Fundraiser $3.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Fundraiser